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3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #31 
Cal Poly up 3-1 with six outs to get and one of the top dozen pitchers in the country in the circle


LCITSH

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Reply with quote  #32 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bama_CF
File this in the category of "Questions no one expected to be asking in the middle of March." History shows that it's important. Since the current format began, no team has won the national title that was not a Top 8 seed.

I'm sure most of the reaction will be that it's way too early and they will be at the top of their game by the end of the season. But it's not too early to bring up the topic IMO because they have 5 losses already and just 1 win over a ranked team, with no other opportunities other than the 3 game series with Baylor late in the season.  


The answer to your question is: Probably.

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3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #33 
Oklahoma had six losses at this point last year, too, before entering that flaccid conference play and got, what, a 3 seed?

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OUsoftball

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Reply with quote  #34 
They're not getting a top 8 seed. They're too inconsistent and their pitching is lacking. Another baffling lost to Cal Poly Slo. I've hanged my hat on defending them. They are not even a top 15 team. They seem to have chemistry issues.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #35 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUsoftball
They're not getting a top 8 seed. They're too inconsistent and their pitching is lacking. Another baffling lost to Cal Poly Slo. I've hanged my hat on defending them. They are not even a top 15 team. They seem to have chemistry issues.
Unless they take 3+ losses against Baylor and Texas in those six games, the committee will give them the same respect as last year
upontop

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Reply with quote  #36 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUsoftball
They're not getting a top 8 seed. They're too inconsistent and their pitching is lacking. Another baffling lost to Cal Poly Slo. I've hanged my hat on defending them. They are not even a top 15 team. They seem to have chemistry issues.


It's not a chemistry thing. It's the lack of timely hitting. Last year every break broke their way, this year not so much. It's a tall task but I still believe that if the hitting comes around they will compete in June, if the hitting is still lacking it will be tough.
ChinMusic

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Reply with quote  #37 
Quote:
Originally Posted by upontop


It's not a chemistry thing. It's the lack of timely hitting. Last year every break broke their way, this year not so much. It's a tall task but I still believe that if the hitting comes around they will compete in June, if the hitting is still lacking it will be tough.


It's absolutely a chemistry thing. They have none.
RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #38 
I think the misnomer was how many folks (including myself) thought this OU team would pick up where the 2016 team left off. It rarely happens that way -- which is why anyone (thinking Florida 2014 & 2015) who goes back-to-back in this modern era of college softball has done something completely amazing.

Chemistry is a funny thing. You can't coach it. You can't impose it by force of will. No one doubts now that Erin Miller was as valuable to her team for her leadership as for her batting average, home runs, etc. Kady Self, too. She was a reliable, .350 or so college hitter you could put anywhere in the lineup from 2-7 and get production, including productive outs.

This year's team hasn't found its identity, especially on the hitting side. Romero and Knighten came off off-season surgeries, so I think there was/is something physical at play. The freshmen this season are inconsistent, which is to be expected unless that freshman is another Lauren Chamberlain.

Bottom line: Sooners got to find another gear mentally and get after it. I don't think a top 8 finish is out of reach -- yet. They've got tremendous upside, but they've got to reach it. Humbling for them and their fans, for sure, but also the source of renewed appreciation for what last year's Baby Boomers accomplished.
ChinMusic

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Reply with quote  #39 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU
I think the misnomer was how many folks (including myself) thought this OU team would pick up where the 2016 team left off. It rarely happens that way -- which is why anyone (thinking Florida 2014 & 2015) who goes back-to-back in this modern era of college softball has done something completely amazing.

Chemistry is a funny thing. You can't coach it. You can't impose it by force of will. No one doubts now that Erin Miller was as valuable to her team for her leadership as for her batting average, home runs, etc. Kady Self, too. She was a reliable, .350 or so college hitter you could put anywhere in the lineup from 2-7 and get production, including productive outs.

This year's team hasn't found its identity, especially on the hitting side. Romero and Knighten came off off-season surgeries, so I think there was/is something physical at play. The freshmen this season are inconsistent, which is to be expected unless that freshman is another Lauren Chamberlain.

Bottom line: Sooners got to find another gear mentally and get after it. I don't think a top 8 finish is out of reach -- yet. They've got tremendous upside, but they've got to reach it. Humbling for them and their fans, for sure, but also the source of renewed appreciation for what last year's Baby Boomers accomplished.


Sums it up pretty well!
Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #40 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Unless they take 3+ losses against Baylor and Texas in those six games, the committee will give them the same respect as last year



I disagree. Last year OU was 46-7 going into the NCAA, and they were seeded #3 which exactly matched their RPI, which was also #3.  In 2015 OU was 45-7 going into the NCAA, and they were seeded #12 which was right in line with their RPI, which was #13.

This year OU's RPI is trending to be similar to what is was in 2015 and they may not have the opportunity to dramatically improve it. I don't think the Committee has actually ever seeded OU in the top 8 except when they had a top 8 RPI.  

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3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #41 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bama_CF



I disagree. Last year OU was 46-7 going into the NCAA, and they were seeded #3 which exactly matched their RPI, which was also #3.  In 2015 OU was 45-7 going into the NCAA, and they were seeded #12 which was right in line with their RPI, which was #13.

This year OU's RPI is trending to be similar to what is was in 2015 and they may not have the opportunity to dramatically improve it. I don't think the Committee has actually ever seeded OU in the top 8 except when they had a top 8 RPI.  
Interesting
Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #42 
I should clarify that since we haven't even seen the first official RPI for 2017, my comment that OU's RPI "trending" to be similar to 2015 is based on an assumption that the RPI calculations that were posted last week were basically accurate. If so OU was #13, has another loss and the SOS gets worse rather than better the remainder of the season, per the Massey ratings and the NCAA site. 

When it comes to the 8 national seeds, the Committee hasn't veered far from the RPI. Only 1 team with an RPI of worse than #9 has been a top 8 seed in the last 6 years (Ariz St had RPI of 11 in 2013) - per my "numbers geek" research. Here is the complete list of times in the last 6 years that the top 8 seeds has differed from the RPI top 8.

2011, 2012, and 2014 - the top 8 seeds were the same 8 teams as the top 8 in RPI.

2013: Tennessee (RPI #9) and Arizona St (RPI #11) were top 8 seeds. Alabama (RPI #5) and LSU (RPI #6) were not.

2015: Tennessee (RPI #9) was seeded 8 and FSU (RPI #8) was seeded 9. 

2016: Oregon (RPI #9) was a top 8 seed and Wash (RPI #8) was not. 



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3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #43 
And surely the committee said that Oregon sweeping Washington in Seattle couldn't be properly represented in mere RPI calculations
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #44 
My god... how could you have a 5 RPI and not be a Top 8
Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #45 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
My god... how could you have a 5 RPI and not be a Top 8



Well, we lost 5 of our last 6 that year, getting swept at LSU then losing 2 of 3 to KY at home.

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Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #46 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
And surely the committee said that Oregon sweeping Washington in Seattle couldn't be properly represented in mere RPI calculations


Right. And frankly the Committee can only be trusted to move teams into and out of the top 8 when it is very obvious. Their work on the remainder of the selections and seeding proves that. 

By the way, another interesting fact is that in addition to 2013, LSU has been left out of the 8 national seeds when they were the #8 team in the RPI 3 other times since the Super Regional format began. That's 4 times total, and I didn't even know that because I guess they have never complained.

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ChinMusic

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Reply with quote  #47 
Based on the first RPI and recent performance, the better question is ..."Will OU be a top 16 National Seed?"
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #48 
They will need to lose, at most, 3 games in conference play, I would guess
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