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Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #1 
File this in the category of "Questions no one expected to be asking in the middle of March." History shows that it's important. Since the current format began, no team has won the national title that was not a Top 8 seed.

I'm sure most of the reaction will be that it's way too early and they will be at the top of their game by the end of the season. But it's not too early to bring up the topic IMO because they have 5 losses already and just 1 win over a ranked team, with no other opportunities other than the 3 game series with Baylor late in the season.  

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OUsoftball

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Reply with quote  #2 
First time for everything. I'm not concerned about it. OU's been toe to toe with the best in the country. They haven't even been playing that well. OU is still one of the best in the country, and I'd take them over any other team in the field.
BlueSky

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Reply with quote  #3 
They will finish in the top 8. Great team, great coach, great pitching...
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RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #4 
Ask Candrea, Meyers, the Weeklys, Heather Tarr if they think OU is a top 8 team. 

I'll bet none of them want to be hosting the Sooners in a SR.


Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #5 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU
Ask Candrea, Meyers, the Weeklys, Heather Tarr if they think OU is a top 8 team. 

I'll bet none of them want to be hosting the Sooners in a SR.


Nothing in my posts suggests that I don't think they are one of the best 8 teams, or that ANYONE wants to host the Sooners in a Super. But there is a BIG difference in hosting a regional against a 9 thru 16 seeded team and going on the road against a top 8 team. 

They point of my post is that there is a decent possibility they could miss out on a top 8 seed and that greatly decreases the chances of winning it all.


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Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #6 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUsoftball
First time for everything. I'm not concerned about it. OU's been toe to toe with the best in the country. They haven't even been playing that well. OU is still one of the best in the country, and I'd take them over any other team in the field.


There is no questioning OU's talent. But It is very common for a young team that wins it all to have motivation issues and complacency after hearing all year how they are going to dominate for their whole careers. I don't know if this is the case at OU, but I know they have not stood out from the pack of top teams so far this year at all. 

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jayrot

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Reply with quote  #7 
As a fan of a team that hosted the Sooners in 2015, I hope to God we don't have to see them again in supers.  But at this point, I don't know if Bama or OU will be hosting supers.

Hint:  If anyone from the committee is listening, an OU/UW matchup would be a great re-match!  Or even Minnesota/OU, I could get behind that supers.  
Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #8 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSky
They will finish in the top 8. Great team, great coach, great pitching...



The topic of my post is not whether they have great talent, great coach, great pitching. I stipulate that. My question is whether they will be a top 8 seed. The RPI computer formula includes wins and losses and wins and losses of opponents and their opponents - not subjective praise.

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Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrot
As a fan of a team that hosted the Sooners in 2015, I hope to God we don't have to see them again in supers.  


I AGREE.  I will add it was the greatest super regional in NCAA softball history IMO, and the most exhilarating win I have ever attended in person. 

But that series exemplifies my point about how hard it is to win it all when you have to play on the road against a top 8 seed in the Super. There's a reason no team has won it all that was not a top 8 seed.

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RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #10 
No question about the points above. You're absolutely correct that winning a SR on the road is a daunting challenge -- which OU learned at Alabama a couple years ago.

We'll see. It's still relatively early. I'd say my Sooners have little margin for error now if they want to be top 8. 
G8terfan23

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Reply with quote  #11 
It's march and ou has plenty of time to right o ship for a lack of a better saying. I will say I believe their youth is showing now as opposed to last year. Also everyone is out to beat you and throws their best each pitch,at bat and inning even more so when you won a national title, have fab freshmen and a solid pitching staff. I wouldn't panic about not being a top 8 seed just yet If this was April yea maybe.
jayrot

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Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU

We'll see. It's still relatively early. I'd say my Sooners have little margin for error now if they want to be top 8. 


If OU loses 2 or more games in conference, the top 8 seed may be out the window.
AleDawg

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Reply with quote  #13 

Washington, Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arizona, Baylor, Georgia, Oregon, Utah, Florida all are project to have stronger SoS than Oklahoma. And all have the same or better record as of today.

Throw in UCLA, and LSU as teams that will have much higher SoS but currently sit with the same # of losses.

That's 14 teams. Meaning Oklahoma will have to climb over 7 of them to get the 8th RPI spot by record (plus whatever bonus points the NCAA figures).

Is quite an obstacle.


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Tigers334

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Reply with quote  #14 
It gets back to the argument that is had in most college sports at the end of the season over rather you are picking the best teams or using a formula to decide. I, for one, will be really pissed if they send OU to Auburn for a Super, but then again if we don't eliminate the errors and start hitting the ball consistently, we might not host one ourselves.
jayrot

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Reply with quote  #15 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tigers334
It gets back to the argument that is had in most college sports at the end of the season over rather you are picking the best teams or using a formula to decide. I, for one, will be really pissed if they send OU to Auburn for a Super, but then again if we don't eliminate the errors and start hitting the ball consistently, we might not host one ourselves.


It's not like you'd have to face Shelby Pendley and Lauren Chamberlain as seniors.  It's all part of playing the game.

Who would you rather have?  JMU?
RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #16 
No-hitter for OU freshman Mariah Lopez in Oklahoma's 14-0 victory over Long Beach State.
TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #17 
Wake me up when they lose a game that means something with Parker on the mound.
Tigers334

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Reply with quote  #18 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrot


It's not like you'd have to face Shelby Pendley and Lauren Chamberlain as seniors.  It's all part of playing the game.

Who would you rather have?  JMU?


I would probably pick just about anybody over OU to face in a Super. My point is simply that OU should be a top 8 seed unless they have an epic collapse in Big 12 play because they are definitely one of the top 8 teams and I think just about every coach in the country would agree with that.
AleDawg

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Reply with quote  #19 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tigers334


I would probably pick just about anybody over OU to face in a Super. My point is simply that OU should be a top 8 seed unless they have an epic collapse in Big 12 play because they are definitely one of the top 8 teams and I think just about every coach in the country would agree with that.


But they are 1-4 against ranked competition. They may be a top team but they still need to prove more than 8 other top teams. And they are running out of chances.

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Still_JAD

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Reply with quote  #20 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUsoftball
First time for everything. I'm not concerned about it. OU's been toe to toe with the best in the country. They haven't even been playing that well. OU is still one of the best in the country, and I'd take them over any other team in the field.


I would take UF over OU in a 3-game series...
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #21 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSky
They will finish in the top 8. Great team, great coach, great pitching...
Their RPI will --generally--get hurt the rest of the way.

The committee should always leave them out of the top 8 IF it is a close call.

Just too much of an advantage in the most important four weeks of the year
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #22 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNarrator
Wake me up when they lose a game that means something with Parker on the mound.
With crappy RPI competition coming up, today's game probably meant more than a little
LandLottery

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Reply with quote  #23 
It isn't motivation.  The two top key players down the playoff run for OU last year were Romero and Knighten.  Both had surgery during the off-season.  Romero is beginning to come back.  But, Shay is struggling to regain her form and power.  They have also lacked productivity from their young outfielders.  But, the emergence of Nicole Mendes may change that.

It may be close for a top eight seed since they will have to be almost perfect.  But, some records are gong to look a little weaker after conference play begins.  OU is better now than last year at the same time.  We had no idea how we were going to find a #2 pitcher last year, and never really did, basically having to forfeit the second game against Auburn.  This year, we started the new #2 against Auburn rather than Paige Parker in order to develop the staff.  The emergence of Lopez is making the staff look more like a three-pitcher rotation than what it was last year.  The old Boston Braves had a chant, "Spahn, Sain, and Pray for Rain."  That's how we were last year.

CWS?  It is all about who is hot during the last two or three weeks of the season.  The fact that no team seeded lower than eight has won is basically because the talent hasn't been spread that widely.  I see about twelve or thirteen teams that could win if they get hot at the right time. 
Kurosawa

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Reply with quote  #24 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bama_CF


I AGREE.  I will add it was the greatest super regional in NCAA softball history IMO, and the most exhilarating win I have ever attended in person. 

But that series exemplifies my point about how hard it is to win it all when you have to play on the road against a top 8 seed in the Super. There's a reason no team has won it all that was not a top 8 seed.


Well, it is certainly better to host a super than not, but if you're going to travel, it is generally better (although not always, given the vagaries of RPI) to go to #8 than #4, for instance.

Washington has wins over Auburn, Oklahoma, and Minnesota (2), with future games against Alabama (2) and the top Pac-12 programs (Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Utah, Cal). On the other hand, they'll likely take more losses in-conference than Oklahoma or Minnesota, without getting full credit for the toughness of their conference.

RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #25 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa


Washington has wins over Auburn, Oklahoma, and Minnesota (2), with future games against Alabama (2) and the top Pac-12 programs (Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Utah, Cal). On the other hand, they'll likely take more losses in-conference than Oklahoma or Minnesota, without getting full credit for the toughness of their conference.



See my last post on the RPI 101 thread. The regular season is more about preparing for postseason. That's why Gasso and other coaches (like Tarr) schedule tough right out of the box. Most important thing is to be competitive, to build a confidence that you can win at the highest level. You don't have to win them all or even two out of every three you play. You just have to have 20-25 kids who believe they can win the big games. UW probably has that. OU, not yet. They've got to find a way to win some of these one-run games. But, at the end of the season, UW beating Oklahoma 1-0 the first weekend of the season won't mean a hill of beans if they meet in Seattle or Norman in a SR. 
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #26 
Gasso, like Hutchens, Allister and Alameda HAVE to schedule that to have a shot at Top 8 seeding after a brutal RPI conference sked

Meanwhile, a Walton or White can take it a little easier in Feb-March with a younger crew, knowing they will face all the RPI challenge they will need in conference
Kurosawa

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Reply with quote  #27 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU


See my last post on the RPI 101 thread. The regular season is more about preparing for postseason. That's why Gasso and other coaches (like Tarr) schedule tough right out of the box. Most important thing is to be competitive, to build a confidence that you can win at the highest level. You don't have to win them all or even two out of every three you play. You just have to have 20-25 kids who believe they can win the big games. UW probably has that. OU, not yet. They've got to find a way to win some of these one-run games. But, at the end of the season, UW beating Oklahoma 1-0 the first weekend of the season won't mean a hill of beans if they meet in Seattle or Norman in a SR. 


I already read your post. Yes, if you know you'll have a young team, you might schedule a little softer, but preparing for the post-season is not the only reason to schedule "tough" in the pre-conference. OOC wins against Top 25 (RPI) teams and head-to-head results do figure strongly in whether they will be seeded #8 or higher, which is why Tarr has scheduled tough, even though playing in a very tough conference.

I said nothing about who, Oklahoma or Washington, would/should be favored at the end of the season, but only that UW, so far, has a leg up (based on top-25 wins and head-to-head). The question is whether Washington will be knocked down due to losses in a much tougher Pac-12 schedule below an Oklahoma that skates through a much easier Big 12 schedule.

RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #28 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa


I said nothing about who, Oklahoma or Washington, would/should be favored at the end of the season, but only that UW, so far, has a leg up (based on top-25 wins and head-to-head). The question is whether Washington will be knocked down due to losses in a much tougher Pac-12 schedule below an Oklahoma that skates through a much easier Big 12 schedule.



What you keep saying, as if it has some magical foretelling power, is that UW beat Oklahoma. True fact. What I'm saying is that a 1-0 victory in Week 1 won't matter a bit when two well-rounded team's meet in late May or early June, which I, for one, sincerely hope happens this year. We owe you guys on the supers. I wonder if Alvelo could throw all three games, if necessary, in such an environment. If that happens, and she comes through, I'll be the first guy on this board to say congratulations.
Kurosawa

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Reply with quote  #29 

Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU
What you keep saying, as if it has some magical foretelling power, is that UW beat Oklahoma. True fact. What I'm saying is that a 1-0 victory in Week 1 won't matter a bit when two well-rounded team's meet in late May or early June, which I, for one, sincerely hope happens this year. We owe you guys on the supers. I wonder if Alvelo could throw all three games, if necessary, in such an environment. If that happens, and she comes through, I'll be the first guy on this board to say congratulations.


We're talking at cross purposes. I've said nothing about who would win if they should match up in the tournament. RPI, top 50 wins, last ten games, and head-to-head are key factors in seeding, however.

The NCAA, by the way, projects that UW will have the #3 toughest schedule. Oklahoma? #23. Sort on "Cumulative Opposition":

http://stats.ncaa.org/reports/toughest_schedule?id=15942

3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #30 
LOL.... yeah... Oregon needs that Portland State DH to get rained out in the worst way

Take a 4-36 out, and Ducks remaining schedule goes from a .743 (192-66-1) to a .861 (188-30-1)
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