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HenryLouisAaron

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Posts: 2,924
Reply with quote  #1 
This is a look at how tough (or easy) each regional is (based on each team's RPI).
I am looking at three different versions of what could be seen as being "tougher"/"weaker" regionals.

1. "Top 2" is the number of RPI spots between the #1 seed and the #2 seed. 
This looks at how close (or how far apart) the top seeded team is to the #2 seeded team. 
These are the two teams that will most likely be playing each other to determine the regional winner.

2. "2+3 avg" is the average RPI of the #2 and #3 seeds. 
This looks at how tough the #2 and #3 seeded teams are - and leaves out the 4th seed (as that team very rarely will make much difference).
This focuses on the two teams that the #1 seed will probably have to beat to move on.

3. "2+3+4 avg" is the average RPI of the #2, #3 and #4 seeds. 
This looks at how strong the full group of opponents are in the region. Occasionally all 3 opponents are relatively good.
This category is the least likely to matter much - but it is still interesting to see which regions are weak or strong - from top to bottom.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oklahoma 1  vs.  UMBC 193
Wisconsin 35  vs.  Notre Dame 33

Top 2:  32
2+3 avg:  34.0
2+3+4 avg:  87.0

----------------------------------------------

Northwestern 11  vs.  Detroit Mercy 196
Southern Illinois 43  vs.  Louisville 36

Top 2:  25
2+3 avg:  39.5
2+3+4 avg:  91.7

----------------------------------------------

Texas 7  vs.  Sam Houston 76
Texas A&M 50  vs.  Houston 39

Top 2:  32
2+3 avg:  44.5
2+3+4 avg:  55.0

-----------------------------------------------

Alabama 8  vs.  Alabama State 246
Lipscomb 37  vs.  Arizona State 27

Top 2:  19
2+3 avg:  32.0
2+3+4 avg:  103.3

----------------------------------------------

Florida 6  vs.  Boston U. 96
Boisie State 40  vs.  Stanford 28

Top 2:  22
2+3 avg:  34.0
2+3+4 avg:  54.7

----------------------------------------------

Tennessee 15  vs.  Longwood 66
Ohio State 38  vs.  North Carolina 23

Top 2:  8
2+3 avg:  30.5
2+3+4 avg:  42.3

------------------------------------------------

Oklahoma State 14  vs.  BYU 107
Tulsa 30  vs.  Arkansas 24

Top 2:  10
2+3 avg:  27.0
2+3+4 avg:  53.7

------------------------------------------------

Florida State 4  vs.  Bethune-Cookman 202
South Florida 31  vs.  South Carolina 20

Top 2:  16
2+3 avg:  25.5
2+3+4 avg:  84.3

#####################################

Washington 2  vs.  Fordham 137
Seattle U. 53  vs.  Mississippi State 29

Top 2:  27
2+3 avg:  41.0
2+3+4 avg:  73.0

-----------------------------------------------------

Kentucky 16  vs.  Toledo 114
Illinois 41  vs.  Virginia Tech 25

Top 2:  11
2+3 avg:  33.0
2+3+4 avg:  60.0

------------------------------------------------------

Ole Miss 18  vs.  Chattanooga 95
S.E. Missouri State 59  vs.  Louisiana 17

Top 2:  -1
2+3 avg:  38.0
2+3+4 avg:  63.3

------------------------------------------------------

Arizona 3  vs.  Harvard 159
Colorado State 34  vs.  Auburn 21

Top 2:  18
2+3 avg:  27.5
2+3+4 avg:  71.3

--------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota 9  vs.  North Dakota State 44
Drake 22  vs.  Georgia 26

Top 2:  13
2+3 avg:  24.0
2+3+4 avg:  30.7

-------------------------------------------------------

LSU 10  vs.  Monmouth 131
Louisiana Tech 45  vs.  Texas Tech 19

Top 2:  9
2+3 avg:  32.0
2+3+4 avg:  65.0

------------------------------------------------------

Michigan 12  vs.  Saint Francis 173
DePaul 86  vs.  James Madison 13

Top 2:  1
2+3 avg:  49.5
2+3+4 avg:  90.7

-----------------------------------------------------

UCLA 5  vs.  Weber State 117
Cal State Fullerton 42  vs.  Missouri 32

Top 2:  27
2+3 avg:  37.0
2+3+4 avg:  63.7

=============================================
HenryLouisAaron

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Posts: 2,924
Reply with quote  #2 
This list shows the toughest regions (based on the top 2 teams) with the toughest listed at the top, weakest at the bottom.

  1.   -1  Ole Miss 18  vs.  Louisiana 17
  2.    1  Michigan 12  vs.  James Madison 13
  3.    8  Tennessee 15  vs.  North Carolina 23
  4.    9  LSU 10  vs.  Texas Tech 19
  5.  10  Oklahoma State 14  vs.  Arkansas 24
  6.  11  Kentucky 16  vs.  Virginia Tech 25
  7.  13  Minnesota 9  vs.  Drake 22
  8.  16  Florida State 4  vs.  South Carolina 20
  9.  18  Arizona 6  vs.  Auburn 21
10.  19  Alabama 8  vs.  Arizona State 27
11.  22  Florida 6  vs.  Stanford 28
12.  25  Northwestern 11  vs.  Louisville 36
13.  27  Washington 2  vs.  Mississippi State 29
14.  27  UCLA 5  vs.  Missouri 32
15.  32  Oklahoma 1  vs.  Notre Dame 33
16.  32  Texas 7  vs.  Houston 39

That is some TOUGH region for Ole Miss... when the host team has to play a team that is actually ranked ahead of them.
And the Michigan region is not much better... as the host team has to play a team that is just 1 RPI spot below them.

The host teams that are lined up against the lowest rated RPI teams are:  Texas vs. #39,  NW vs. #36,  Oklahoma vs. #33,  UCLA vs. #32.
HenryLouisAaron

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Posts: 2,924
Reply with quote  #3 
This list shows the toughest regions (based on the "2+3 avg") with the toughest listed at the top, weakest at the bottom.

  1.  24.0  Minnesota  (Drake 22  and  Georgia 26)
  2.  25.5  Florida State  (South Carolina 20  and  South Florida 31)
  3.  27.0  Oklahoma State  (Arkansas 24  and  Tulsa 30)
  4.  27.5  Arizona  (Auburn 21  and  Colorado State 34)
  5.  30.5  Tennessee  (North Carolina 23  and  Ohio State 38)
  6.  32.0  LSU  (Texas Tech 19  and  Louisiana Tech 45)
  7.  32.0  Alabama  (Arizona State 27  and  Lipscomb 37)
  8.  33.0  Kentucky  (Virginia Tech 25  and  Illinois 41)
  9.  34.0  Florida  (Stanford 28  and  Boisie State 40)
10.  34.0  Oklahoma  (Notre Dame 33  and Wisconsin 35)
11.  37.0  UCLA  (Missouri 32  and  Cal State Fullerton 42)
12.  38.0  Ole Miss  (Louisiana 17  and  S.E. Missouri State 59)
13.  39.5  Northwestern  (Louisville 36  and  Southern Illinois 43)
14.  41.0  Washington  (Mississippi State 29  and  Seattle U. 53)
15.  44.5  Texas  (Houston 39  and  Texas A&M 50)
16.  49.5  Michigan  (James Madison 13  and  DePaul 86)

Minnesota's region is so tough...  that the #3 seed (Drake 22) is actually a higher rated RPI team  than the #2 seed (Georgia 26).
They have two "top 26 RPI" teams in their region. 

While the Texas region is so much weaker...  with the #39 ranked RPI team as their best opponent - and # 50 as their next best opponent.
HenryLouisAaron

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Posts: 2,924
Reply with quote  #4 
This list shows the toughest full regions... 

  1.  30.7  Minnesota
  2.  42.3  Tennessee
  3.  53.7  Oklahoma State
  4.  54.7  Florida
  5.  55.0  Texas
  6.  60.0  Kentucky
  7.  63.3  Ole Miss
  8.  63.7  UCLA
  9.  65.0  LSU
10.  71.3  Arizona
11.  73.0  Washington
12.  84.3  Florida State
13.  87.0  Oklahoma
14.  90.7  Michigan
15.  91.7  Northwestern
16.  103.3  Alabama
Southie

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Posts: 1,063
Reply with quote  #5 
Thanks for putting all this together.

On paper, #9 seed Texas definitely benefitted in that no team inside the Top 32 RPI was sent to Austin.  Houston at #39 and A&M at #50 (strictly based on RPI) are more in line with being #3 seeds.  Sam Houston at #76 is one of the "tougher" #4 seeds (strictly based on RPI).  #1 seed Oklahoma gets two teams with lower RPI's than #39 Houston in #33 Notre Dame and #35 Wisconsin.

When trying to gauge the overall "toughness" of each regional, including the #4 seed really skews things as Alabama gets a #4 seed who is #246, but Minnesota gets one that is #44.
mighty118

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Posts: 19
Reply with quote  #6 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Southie
Thanks for putting all this together.

On paper, #9 seed Texas definitely benefitted in that no team inside the Top 32 RPI was sent to Austin.  Houston at #39 and A&M at #50 (strictly based on RPI) are more in line with being #3 seeds.  Sam Houston at #76 is one of the "tougher" #4 seeds (strictly based on RPI).  #1 seed Oklahoma gets two teams with lower RPI's than #39 Houston in #33 Notre Dame and #35 Wisconsin.

When trying to gauge the overall "toughness" of each regional, including the #4 seed really skews things as Alabama gets a #4 seed who is #246, but Minnesota gets one that is #44.


I guess it depends on how you look at how the #4 seed matters. Bama has basically no chance of losing their first game even if they play poorly. NDSU is good enough to knock off a top team.
scrybe

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Posts: 2,494
Reply with quote  #7 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mighty118


I guess it depends on how you look at how the #4 seed matters. Bama has basically no chance of losing their first game even if they play poorly. NDSU is good enough to knock off a top team.


In theory, the No.1 seed (Oklahoma) should have the easiest regional, No. 2 UCLA should have second easiest, etc.

Am I wrong?
3leftturns

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Posts: 18,661
Reply with quote  #8 

What constitutes "easiest"?

For me, it is purely having the worst No. 2 seed

But, if you average 2 and 3, you get something else, and average 2-3-4, something else

HenryLouisAaron

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Posts: 2,924
Reply with quote  #9 
<< In theory, the No.1 seed (Oklahoma) should have the easiest regional, No. 2 UCLA should have second easiest, etc.
Am I wrong? >> (scrybe)


Theoretically, that is correct.

The #1 seed would have these teams in their region...

1, 32, 33, 64 (the 64th seed would become the highest RPI team in the field in this discussion, the 63rd seed the second highest RPI team, etc.)

2, 31, 34, 63

3, 30, 35, 62

4, 29, 36, 61

5, 28, 37, 60

etc...  with the bottom of the top 16 being... 

14, 19, 46, 51

15, 18, 47, 50

16, 17, 48, 49

----------------------------------------------------------

That is why Michigan #12 vs. James Madison #13  is such a tough region.
The #12 seed should have to face #21 (but Michigan has #13).

#7 seed Minnesota should have #26, #39 and #58 theoretically...  but they got 22, 26 and 44.

----------------------------------------------------------

On the other end of the spectrum... NW had an "easy" region with these...
#16 seed NW should have 17, 48, 49...   but they got 36, 43, 196.

#9 seed Texas should have 24, 41, 56...  but they got 39, 50, 76

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The #1 seed Oklahoma should have 32, 33, 64.  They got 33, 35, 193.
UMBC at 193 RPI was the 4th worst RPI team (which equates to the #61 seed).

Theoretically... Oklahoma should have had the worst RPI team (South Alabama 246 RPI) in their region.
But basically... OU got the opponents they pretty much should have gotten (not off by much).

The teams that received the 3 worst RPI opponents are...
#16 seed Northwestern got the 3rd worst RPI team (62nd when they should have gotten the 49th).
#8 seed Alabama got the worst RPI team (64th when they should have gotten the 57th).
#4 seed Florida State got the 2nd worst RPI team (63rd when they should have gotten the 61st).
smcouvillion

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Posts: 967
Reply with quote  #10 
yet Northwestern still in the losers bracket lol
3leftturns

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Posts: 18,661
Reply with quote  #11 
It least there is a bus rationale for, say 36 Louisville being at Northwestern instead of the more properly pathed Minnesota instead of 22 Drake

A rationale for 32 Oklahoma State at 16 Georgia while 13 Baylor was at 8 Oregon in 2016? Haven't seen that yet
Mark46

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Posts: 760
Reply with quote  #12 
For the #1 seed the only seed that really matters (unless you're Texas) is the #2 seed. A strong #3 seed actually helps the #1 seed because they might knock off the #2 seed. The #3 seed is really only a concern to the #2 seed because the #1 seed isn't going to play both the 2 and 3 seeds.
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