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MadDogsDad

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Reply with quote  #31 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

Still Missouri will always have a great OWP (10th this year), and that won't change much. So, how bad IS it to have scheduled them this year?



Because 50% of my team's RPI calculation is their 29-26 record. Their 10th OWP helps them to the tune of 50%, it only helps my team by 25%.

Obviously the 50% and 25% aren't actual calculations because it is only 1 game in a 52ish game schedule.




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Kurosawa

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Reply with quote  #32 
Quote:
Originally Posted by gonegolfin


Actually, SOS being parts 2, 3, and 4 of a 4-part RPI.

And now with SOS being considered as another set of criteria (apart from RPI itself), they make the problem worse. They are essentially saying that SOS should be much more than 75% ... further de-empasizing winning.

Brian


Okay, SoS is mostly Part 2 of RPI (50% vs 25% for Part 3). Part 2 is readily available; Part 3 isn't. See: http://stats.ncaa.org/reports/toughest_schedule?id=15942

For seeding purposes, RPI is still a rough starting point, with teams marked up or down based on SoS, head-to-head, common opponents, and Top 10/25/50 wins (ALL derived from RPI). What has changed is that teams are now expected to qualify based on SoS and Top 10/25/50 wins (note: not records) if they want to host, with RPI, itself, counting relatively little in drawing that line (a line both Minny and ULL fell short of).

Note: On the NCAA's "toughest schedule" metric (just Part 2), Minny was #78. According to their seeding comment, Minny's SoS (Part 2 + Part 3) was #114 (if I recall).
gonegolfin

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Reply with quote  #33 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa


Okay, SoS is mostly Part 2 of RPI (50% vs 25% for Part 3). Part 2 is readily available; Part 3 isn't. See: http://stats.ncaa.org/reports/toughest_schedule?id=15942


Once you have OWP, you can easily calculate OOWP using the data in the Team Sheets. I have done it on numerous occasions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa

For seeding purposes, RPI is still a rough starting point, with teams marked up or down based on SoS, head-to-head, common opponents, and Top 10/25/50 wins (ALL derived from RPI). What has changed is that teams are now expected to qualify to host based on SoS and Top 10/25/50 wins (note: not records) if they want to host, with RPI, itself, counting relatively little in drawing that line.


And I am saying ... when you mark teams up or down using SOS, you are duplicating SOS in the selection criteria. You are taking the near 75% weighting of SOS from RPI and juicing/emphasizing it even more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa
Note: On the NCAA's "toughest schedule" metric (just Part 2), Minny was #78. According to their seeding comment, Minny's SoS (Part 2 + Part 3) was #114 (if I recall).

The "toughest schedule" metric, surfaced in a thread last night, is useless. It is simply a summation of opponent wins and losses and a computed winning percentage. It is not even OWP (as I explained).

When the committee uses the term SOS, they are referring to RPI SOS, which is ...

SOS = ((OWP*2) + OOWP)/3

then ...

RPI = (WP + (SOS *3))/4

Brian

3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #34 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogsDad
Because 50% of my team's RPI calculation is their 29-26 record. Their 10th OWP helps them to the tune of 50%, it only helps my team by 25%. Obviously the 50% and 25% aren't actual calculations because it is only 1 game in a 52ish game schedule.
My point is though... that the worst the SEC team gets is a .520 WP and a great OOWP... always worth scheduling if you can.

With Minnesota having a 114 OWP and a 27 OOWP, they wouldn't have been hurt by Mizzou... right?
Kurosawa

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Reply with quote  #35 

Quote:
Originally Posted by gonegolfin


And I am saying ... when you mark teams up or down using SOS, you are duplicating SOS in the selection criteria. You are taking the near 75% weighting of SOS from RPI and juicing/emphasizing it even more.


That is clearly what they did, however, along with Top 10/25 wins.

"Toughest schedule" metric is posted by the NCAA.

3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #36 
No doubt that top 10 (or 5) wins were uber-valued
gatorbob

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Reply with quote  #37 
Quote:
Originally Posted by NCexile
As a quant researcher (among other things) I'm pretty miffed at why the selection committee bothers with RPI.  The knock on Minnesota and JMU was their SOS yet 50% of the RPI is just that; your schedule and your opponents, collectively.  If a team's schedule is 'deficient' the RPI should reflect it.  I have also coached track and field.  Loved it since parents can't question the starters.  It's all objective . . . jump higher, run faster, throw further . . . all measurable.  It seems to me the committee is substituting its 'judgement' for the supposedly objective measure of schedule quality.  It would be like adding 'style points' to T & F.  Lets see; Julie clears 17' but the judges decided Amber looked better so it awarded first place to her although she only cleared 16'6".  If you don't trust RPI then get rid of it.  The Minnesota and JMU coaches played  a schedule that, objectively measured, qualified them to host.  They should.  There is a place for a committee but only in determining location and seeding.


The committee always seems to find a way to do what they damn well please, leaving many programs and their fans in a lurch each season. Btw, current world record in women's pol vault is 16' 71/4". I hope Julie !gets her 17' soon
MadDogsDad

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Reply with quote  #38 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
My point is though... that the worst the SEC team gets is a .520 WP and a great OOWP... always wort scheduling if you can.

With Minnesota having a 114 OWP and a 27 OOWP, they wouldn't have been hurt by Mizzou... right?



You are changing the direction of the topic and taking out half of the equation. We were never discussing the effect playing Missouri would have on Minnesota independently.

The point is the benefit of travelling to play in the Nutter and playing Northwestern and Mizzou vs playing a local DH with Fordham and St. John's. This season it would be more beneficial for a team's RPI to play the local DH than to play Missouri and Northwestern at the Nutter.


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gonegolfin

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Reply with quote  #39 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
My point is though... that the worst the SEC team gets is a .520 WP and a great OOWP... always worth scheduling if you can.

With Minnesota having a 114 OWP and a 27 OOWP, they wouldn't have been hurt by Mizzou... right?


.52000 is not a good OWP contribution for most teams. I know that with respect to the Cajuns, Mizzou would have brought their SOS slightly down. From strictly an SOS perspective, they would be better off scheduling #103 Nicholls State (just one example) ... which would have increased their SOS.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #40 
Purely gaming the RPI, yes, you are right. But the committee is looking for those T25 wins, at least for teams gunning for the Top 16

The Nutter second week for a team with the renown of a ULL, JMU or Minnesota, FSU, Michigan is of paramount importance

If FSU doesn't go there, THEY could have been Minnesota (though Alameda ... to her huge credit, did the games at South Carolina and at Oregon ... just to make sure)

Their wins over Arizona and UCLA were humongous
gonegolfin

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Reply with quote  #41 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Purely gaming the RPI, yes, you are right. But the committee is looking for those T25 wins, at least for teams gunning for the Top 16


... and Mizzou provides neither.

And if Nutter begins to have the value to the Cajuns' schedule that it once had, they will be all over it. But it has not recently.

Brian
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #42 
Missouri usually does. Well worth the risk of scheduling, especially when the worst you get out of it would be a .520 OWP and a sky high OOWP addition
gonegolfin

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Reply with quote  #43 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Missouri usually does. Well worth the risk of scheduling, especially when the worst you get out of it would be a .520 OWP and a sky high OOWP addition


Do the math. Until then you will not see.

These are the teams you avoid ... and you go after the upper tier of these conferences.

Brian
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #44 
The Cajuns haven't been to the Nutter recently. What do you mean?

The Nutter second week had that value to FSU's schedule this year. And to UCLA's... and LSU's... and Tennessee's... and Arizona's... and Utah's... and Washington's

Mark46

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Reply with quote  #45 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
You have 5 weeks of open scheduling opportunity. If the ONLY games played in a season were in conference ... then there would be a legit gripe


Except that part of the schedule is only partially in a team's control. Nearly all the pre-conference schedule is formed by playing a group of teams at a particular site with limited control over the match-ups. One of those weekends Minnesota was locked into the B1G-ACC challenge vs Notre Dame and NC State. The meme that the SEC and PC-12 will end up at the top of the ratings when all is said and done, and none of those schools will ever travel north, those conferences can pretty much dictate scheduling for the rest of the nation and control match-ups at their whim.

Having the number of top 25 wins be the overriding factor  becomes skewed when one team is locked into 15 top 25 games and another team can't possibly meet that number.  Having a 5-10 record against top 25 teams seems to impress the committee but a 3-2 record wouldn't.  Then the whole ranking mess becomes self-referencing and self-perpetuating. You're deemed good just because you play certain teams and they're good because they play you. That's the situation we're in now. Hence, the team that finished #1 in in the polls and passed the eyeball test of the coaches poll is seeded behind 8 SEC schools because they're outside the self-referencing elite.
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #46 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark46


Except that part of the schedule is only partially in a team's control. Nearly all the pre-conference schedule is formed by playing a group of teams at a particular site with limited control over the match-ups. One of those weekends Minnesota was locked into the B1G-ACC challenge vs Notre Dame and NC State. The meme that the SEC and PC-12 will end up at the top of the ratings when all is said and done, and none of those schools will ever travel north, those conferences can pretty much dictate scheduling for the rest of the nation and control match-ups at their whim.

Having the number of top 25 wins be the overriding factor  becomes skewed when one team is locked into 15 top 25 games and another team can't possibly meet that number.  Having a 5-10 record against top 25 teams seems impress the committee but a 3-2 record wouldn't.  Then the whole ranking mess becomes self-referencing and self-perpetuating. You're deemed good just because you play certain teams and they're good because they play you. That's the situation we're in now. Hence, the team that finished #1 in in the polls and passed the eyeball test of the coaches poll is seeded behind 8 SEC schools because they're outside the self-referencing elite.


Without question the best post on this topic.  Thank you. 
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #47 
Yes, you guys are screwed by that ACC-BigTen matchup. That is a bad excuse to run with, though. It's one weekend.

FSU is in the ACC, and Michigan is in the Big Ten. They both make sure they insulate themselves

In 2016, February got Michigan a 2 overall seed, this year it got FSU a 4
Mark46

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Reply with quote  #48 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Yes, you guys are screwed by that ACC-BigTen matchup. That is a bad excuse to run with, though.

FSU is in the ACC, and Michigan is in the Big Ten.


God, you're an irritating little twerp. I was pointing out that Minnesota wasn't free to schedule as they pleased for all 5 weeks you mentioned in your previous post.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #49 
Quote:
Originally Posted by gonegolfin


Do the math. Until then you will not see.

These are the teams you avoid ... and you go after the upper tier of these conferences.

Brian
What is the median OWP that goes from hurting to helping a top 16 candidate?
MadDogsDad

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Reply with quote  #50 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
What is the median OWP that goes from hurting to helping a top 16 candidate?



It doesn't matter because you can go

11-14 against top 25 RPI (all wins in league) and have a loss to +150

Or

6-16 against top 25 (0-4 in non conference, 1 of the losses at home to Minnesota) (6-12 within the league) with a loss to #128

And still host.

winning is secondary.





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MadDogsDad

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Reply with quote  #51 
Also, just looked at Minnesota's schedule

@Texas tournament
@BigTen/ACC challenge at NC State and vs ND
@Fresno tournament
@LSU tournament
@Washington tournament
Single games
@Oregon St
@Cal

Going into the season, I doubt anyone is saying this team is avoiding good teams.

Nebraska, Northwestern and North Dakota St having subpar years didn't help

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3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #52 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogsDad
It doesn't matter because you can go 11-14 against top 25 RPI (all wins in league) and have a loss to +150 Or 6-16 against top 25 (0-4 in non conference, 1 of the losses at home to Minnesota) (6-12 within the league) with a loss to #128 And still host. winning is secondary.
That's why I am asking about a ballpark median OWP (opponent win percentage)

Your opponents' winning+plus THEIR opponents' winning is not secondary
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #53 

Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogsDad
Also, just looked at Minnesota's schedule @Texas tournament @BigTen/ACC challenge at NC State and vs ND @Fresno tournament @LSU tournament @Washington tournament Single games @Oregon St @Cal Going into the season, I doubt anyone is saying this team is avoiding good teams. Nebraska, Northwestern and North Dakota St having subpar years didn't help
I don't understand why they didn't get a second LSU matchup there.

But, looking at that, wouldn't YOU say even that that is a four-top-25-game schedule?

Who, other than Washington twice, LSU and (maybe) Cal, would you have legitimately projected as Top 25s?

CajunAmos

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Reply with quote  #54 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa


That's only true from a pure RPI basis - RPI will get you into the field, but to host you need wins against equivalent or better competition. For that, increasingly, you need to go to the Nutter and the Garman. Yes, it is an added expense, and one many Mid-Majors don't want to foot.


I'd have to verify the years, but I think the last time we went we played one "top" team and when that was offered the next year we declined.
RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #55 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Their wins over Arizona and UCLA were humongous


OU literally one strike away from duplicating this feat. Would reversing their outcome vs. Arizona have landed the Sooners a top 5 or 6 seed? Surely, because Big XII > ACC.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #56 

Quote:
Originally Posted by gonegolfin


... and Mizzou provides neither.

And if Nutter begins to have the value to the Cajuns' schedule that it once had, they will be all over it. But it has not recently.

Brian

I went back to 2004 on the Cajuns site and saw no Palm Springs visits

I DID see Fullerton, which ended after 2012, when the final two games (including one against Arizona) was canceled

These were their results there against NCAA tourney host teams for that given year

2012
ASU W9-2

2011
Ariz L10-2
ASU L10-4

2010
Wash L8-0

2009
Michigan L9-1
Oklahoma L8-5

2008
ASU L3-1
Arizona L2-0
Michigan L7-2

2007
ASU W2-0
Arizona L9-0

2006
ASU L5-1
Okla L7-3

2005
Ariz L2-0

2004
Ariz L7-3
Oklahoma L1-0

 

3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #57 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU
OU literally one strike away from duplicating this feat. Would reversing their outcome vs. Arizona have landed the Sooners a top 5 or 6 seed? Surely, because Big XII > ACC.
LOL, I still can't believe Tennessee is hosting instead of you. Anyway, obviously that would have been a momentous win
RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #58 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
LOL, I still can't believe Tennessee is hosting instead of you. Anyway, obviously that would have been a momentous win


Yep. Knighten threw a ball away with two outs, good for tying and winning runs. In a season marked by tough, one-run losses, Arizona was the toughest. So out of character for Shay, who otherwise has been the aces at 1B.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #59 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU
Yep. Knighten threw a ball away with two outs, good for tying and winning runs. In a season marked by tough, one-run losses, Arizona was the toughest.
Sounds like Oregon against Washington in game 3 of their series. Up 3-1 in seventh, botched catch led to tying run. Win that and it's a Pac 5-peat and probably the No. 1 seed in the NCAAs, stuck with Bama/Minnesota!
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #60 
Also, Oregon kicked off a tournament at its new complex in March. Teams playing the Ducks were a combined RPI-killing .485 win percentage mixed with a brutal opponent win percentage

I'd love to see a JMU, ULL, Michigan, Minnesota there instead of that
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