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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #61 
Looks like the same sign with her right hand. Am I missing something?
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The hard right is certainly passionate and emotional about their causes. But in the end, devoid of factual evidence, they are, as President Obama so wisely and succinctly put it, just saying stuff. 
cjs4585

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Reply with quote  #62 
Quote:
Originally Posted by outofzone
According to many, when Kleist announced she was transferring, Ellyson was elevated to  part of one of the top pitching duos in the Country. Lofty praise for sure.

Now ULL season will apparently go through her...is she now one of the country's best Pitchers?






There are 16 returning pitchers with a better era than ellyson(1.53). Of those only 7 have a better average opponent rpi : alvelo, plain, Garcia, Juarez, haff, elish, king. That leaves Martin, Beaubien, Meza and heebner that are relatively close in opponent rpi and a handful of pitchers that arent within 60pts of opponent rpi. Then you have 3 that are within .5 era pts of ellyson but with a better average opponent rpi. That adds McQuillin(1.68), Bass(2.0) and Fiser(1.69). At worse I'd say that puts ellyson top 15. With her improved change up and what should be improved pitch calling I could see her be better than several of those outside that top 7 maybe around top 10. So yes, I'd say she is a top pitcher. And yes, matched with a top 4 pitcher as kleist would have been,that would have made them one of the best pitching duos in the country. There's always next year...
Chester45

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Reply with quote  #63 
So Kleist wille s up at OU next year. Nice
LCITSH

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Reply with quote  #64 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilmer1

Does this mean that ULL wont be winning a Natty this year?


Never was going to. But LA might.

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Terrell S. Hebert
Louisiana USSSA Church Coordinator
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #65 
You’re in ULLaLa land
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RIP Mark Campbell
Truly one of the best there was
Victory USA. OC BatBusters. Pacifica HS
TruDat

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Reply with quote  #66 
What was with them signing the pitcher from Santa Ana CC? She's on the Transfer List.
outofzone

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Reply with quote  #67 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjs4585


There are 16 returning pitchers with a better era than ellyson(1.53). Of those only 7 have a better average opponent rpi : alvelo, plain, Garcia, Juarez, haff, elish, king. That leaves Martin, Beaubien, Meza and heebner that are relatively close in opponent rpi and a handful of pitchers that arent within 60pts of opponent rpi. Then you have 3 that are within .5 era pts of ellyson but with a better average opponent rpi. That adds McQuillin(1.68), Bass(2.0) and Fiser(1.69). At worse I'd say that puts ellyson top 15. With her improved change up and what should be improved pitch calling I could see her be better than several of those outside that top 7 maybe around top 10. So yes, I'd say she is a top pitcher. And yes, matched with a top 4 pitcher as kleist would have been,that would have made them one of the best pitching duos in the country. There's always next year...


I guess you were referencing the Team RPI vs her individual RPI in games pitched in. 

1.53 is a very nice ERA. Kid was a workhorse last year and will most likely have to do it again this year. Highly doubt she is personally complaining knowing her innings were potentially going to be cut by over half with Kleist on staff. Also, you say improved Change-Up...how does anybody know that yet? She'll need it in a month. 

NCAA rates her #31 in 2018. They also rated Nicole Newman #3 with a .89 ERA but you didn't mention her above. And yes I understand Drake's RPI was worse than ULL but that makes my point. 

Ellyson was 4-3 against teams most would consider 'top teams'. UF, MI, Baylor, FSU, LSU, OR St. Her single best Win was against Florida after going 11 innings. The biggest travesty in that game was Ocasio getting the Loss over Barnhill.  Hooked after 1.2 against MI, hammered by FSU, Baylor loss, LSU a Win but it took an act of God by her Offense in final inning. LSU/loss.

41.6IP, 21 ER, 4.54ERA  Those are her meaningful Stats. An average pitcher can compile a bunch of crazy stats against cupcake teams. IE: Nicole Newman/Drake. 

Until Kleist was coming to ULL, Ellyson was rarely discussed. Understandable. One thing is for certain, when Kleist does arrive, Ellyson's ERA will take a nosedive when she doesn't have to carry any heavy lifting. My bet is Glasco will upgrade their schedule for Kleist's Senior season. 

Ellyson is a fine pitcher but to put her Top 15....I'd like to see how strong she looks against CAL, Baylor, & OK first. ULL still has some TBD dates so maybe Glasco gets some quality teams to play. 
cjs4585

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Reply with quote  #68 
No, I took all the pitchers with an RPI lower or within .5 era points of Ellyson, that were still going to be around in 2019 (which disqualified Newman) and calculated their average opponent RPI scaled to the innings pitched against each opponent. Ellyson's was 63.4. As I stated there were few pitchers that had a lower opponent RPI. Those 10 I listed. She definitely wasn't padding her stats against cupcake teams. 

There were those who did more poorly against a weaker overall average RPI, those aren't on the list. Saile, for instance, had a 74.9 average RPI with a 1.93 era. Does the fact that she had a good outing against Florida make her a better pitcher than Ellyson in light of that? I don't think it does. 

There were those that had a better RPI against weaker competition. Take Orosco from sacred heart. The average opponent RPI was 142.3, nearly 80 teams worse than Ellyson's on average. I think that's enough difference that it's disqualifying. On the other hand people like Beaubien fit into this group as well. Her average opponent RPI was 77.6. She did well against a somewhat weaker schedule (16 teams weaker on average). I think Beaubien has better stuff and will become a better pitcher, but is she better now? It's debatable, and the upcoming season will shed light on that, but I did include her (and Martin, Meza and Heebner) on the list.

Finally there were those who did worse (within .5 era points) against a tougher schedule. I included those on the list of potentially "better" pitchers. McQuillan, Bass, Fiser.  

I've been told that the coaches are optimistic about some changes Ellyson has made. I agree we won't see how much different of a pitcher she is (if any) until she's tested against real competition. 


SJ28

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Reply with quote  #69 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjs4585
No, I took all the pitchers with an RPI lower or within .5 era points of Ellyson, that were still going to be around in 2019 (which disqualified Newman) and calculated their average opponent RPI scaled to the innings pitched against each opponent. Ellyson's was 63.4. As I stated there were few pitchers that had a lower opponent RPI. Those 10 I listed. She definitely wasn't padding her stats against cupcake teams. 

There were those who did more poorly against a weaker overall average RPI, those aren't on the list. Saile, for instance, had a 74.9 average RPI with a 1.93 era. Does the fact that she had a good outing against Florida make her a better pitcher than Ellyson in light of that? I don't think it does. 

There were those that had a better RPI against weaker competition. Take Orosco from sacred heart. The average opponent RPI was 142.3, nearly 80 teams worse than Ellyson's on average. I think that's enough difference that it's disqualifying. On the other hand people like Beaubien fit into this group as well. Her average opponent RPI was 77.6. She did well against a somewhat weaker schedule (16 teams weaker on average). I think Beaubien has better stuff and will become a better pitcher, but is she better now? It's debatable, and the upcoming season will shed light on that, but I did include her (and Martin, Meza and Heebner) on the list.

Finally there were those who did worse (within .5 era points) against a tougher schedule. I included those on the list of potentially "better" pitchers. McQuillan, Bass, Fiser.  

I've been told that the coaches are optimistic about some changes Ellyson has made. I agree we won't see how much different of a pitcher she is (if any) until she's tested against real competition. 


outofzone

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Reply with quote  #70 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjs4585
No, I took all the pitchers with an RPI lower or within .5 era points of Ellyson, that were still going to be around in 2019 (which disqualified Newman) and calculated their average opponent RPI scaled to the innings pitched against each opponent. Ellyson's was 63.4. As I stated there were few pitchers that had a lower opponent RPI. Those 10 I listed. She definitely wasn't padding her stats against cupcake teams. 

There were those who did more poorly against a weaker overall average RPI, those aren't on the list. Saile, for instance, had a 74.9 average RPI with a 1.93 era. Does the fact that she had a good outing against Florida make her a better pitcher than Ellyson in light of that? I don't think it does. 

There were those that had a better RPI against weaker competition. Take Orosco from sacred heart. The average opponent RPI was 142.3, nearly 80 teams worse than Ellyson's on average. I think that's enough difference that it's disqualifying. On the other hand people like Beaubien fit into this group as well. Her average opponent RPI was 77.6. She did well against a somewhat weaker schedule (16 teams weaker on average). I think Beaubien has better stuff and will become a better pitcher, but is she better now? It's debatable, and the upcoming season will shed light on that, but I did include her (and Martin, Meza and Heebner) on the list.

Finally there were those who did worse (within .5 era points) against a tougher schedule. I included those on the list of potentially "better" pitchers. McQuillan, Bass, Fiser.  

I've been told that the coaches are optimistic about some changes Ellyson has made. I agree we won't see how much different of a pitcher she is (if any) until she's tested against real competition. 


Gotta give you credit, you broke out the Slide Rule here. Great post. 

If Ellyson can take her game up a notch this year, will be nuclear optimism for Fall 2019 when Kleist arrives. 

Drake list Newman as a R/Sr...semantics. Again, great post.
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