Ultimate College Softball
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cjs4585

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With the softball world championships in full swing I thought it might be time to speculate on Olympic berths. First off, this link lists the Olympic qualifiers and answers the question I had about what would happen to the 2 Americas berths if the US won the world championships (or finished 2nd to Japan). Answer - they would still have them, so as many as 3 teams from the Americas could qualify. The breakdown is : 
  • 1 berth for the winner of the WBSC World Championships (going on now).
  • 1 berth for Africa/Europe qualifier winner. This is a 8-team tournament with top 6 finishers from European Championships 2019 and top 2 from the African Softball Championships 2019
  • 1 berth for the winner of the Asia/Oceania qualifier - 8 team tournament top 6 finishers from Asia Championships 2019 (China, Chinese Taipei etc) and top 2 from Oceania Championships 2019 (AUS, NZ) 
  • 2 berths from the America's Qualifier, max 16 team tournament based on standings from the Pan American Championships 2019. The first and second place team that hasn't already qualified for the Olympics, will qualify
So, who gets in?
Auto - Japan (as host)
Europe/Africa - maybe the toughest call, I'll say Italy
WBSC WC winner - US (should finish either 1st or 2nd to Japan and they qualify either way)
Asia/Oceania - Australia (would like to say NZ but don't think they have the arms)
Americas - This one is tough as well. There are 2 spots for 3 decent teams (MEX, PUR, CAN), I'm going to say CANADA and PUERTO RICO


 
 
Gators2014

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Reply with quote  #2 
Looks good to me.
nolefan

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjs4585
With the softball world championships in full swing I thought it might be time to speculate on Olympic berths. First off, this link lists the Olympic qualifiers and answers the question I had about what would happen to the 2 Americas berths if the US won the world championships (or finished 2nd to Japan). Answer - they would still have them, so as many as 3 teams from the Americas could qualify. The breakdown is : 
  • 1 berth for the winner of the WBSC World Championships (going on now).
  • 1 berth for Africa/Europe qualifier winner. This is a 8-team tournament with top 6 finishers from European Championships 2019 and top 2 from the African Softball Championships 2019
  • 1 berth for the winner of the Asia/Oceania qualifier - 8 team tournament top 6 finishers from Asia Championships 2019 (China, Chinese Taipei etc) and top 2 from Oceania Championships 2019 (AUS, NZ) 
  • 2 berths from the America's Qualifier, max 16 team tournament based on standings from the Pan American Championships 2019. The first and second place team that hasn't already qualified for the Olympics, will qualify
So, who gets in?
Auto - Japan (as host)
Europe/Africa - maybe the toughest call, I'll say Italy
WBSC WC winner - US (should finish either 1st or 2nd to Japan and they qualify either way)
Asia/Oceania - Australia (would like to say NZ but don't think they have the arms)
Americas - This one is tough as well. There are 2 spots for 3 decent teams (MEX, PUR, CAN), I'm going to say CANADA and PUERTO RICO


 
 


I have heard the Americas qualifier will include the top 6 teams only (not including any team that has already qualified...assuming US will qualify in 2018 at the worlds) that will be invited to compete in this qualifier? I expect Mexico will be the toughest competition and then remaining spot will be up for grabs. Too bad not every country has the same rules for eligibility - some are more lax than others (i.e. PR). IMO the WSBC should set the eligibility requirements to make it fair for every team competing at the international level. 

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jayrot

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Reply with quote  #4 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjs4585
With the softball world championships in full swing I thought it might be time to speculate on Olympic berths. First off, this link lists the Olympic qualifiers and answers the question I had about what would happen to the 2 Americas berths if the US won the world championships (or finished 2nd to Japan). Answer - they would still have them, so as many as 3 teams from the Americas could qualify. The breakdown is : 
  • 1 berth for the winner of the WBSC World Championships (going on now).
  • 1 berth for Africa/Europe qualifier winner. This is a 8-team tournament with top 6 finishers from European Championships 2019 and top 2 from the African Softball Championships 2019
  • 1 berth for the winner of the Asia/Oceania qualifier - 8 team tournament top 6 finishers from Asia Championships 2019 (China, Chinese Taipei etc) and top 2 from Oceania Championships 2019 (AUS, NZ) 
  • 2 berths from the America's Qualifier, max 16 team tournament based on standings from the Pan American Championships 2019. The first and second place team that hasn't already qualified for the Olympics, will qualify
So, who gets in?
Auto - Japan (as host)
Europe/Africa - maybe the toughest call, I'll say Italy
WBSC WC winner - US (should finish either 1st or 2nd to Japan and they qualify either way)
Asia/Oceania - Australia (would like to say NZ but don't think they have the arms)
Americas - This one is tough as well. There are 2 spots for 3 decent teams (MEX, PUR, CAN), I'm going to say CANADA and PUERTO RICO


 
 


Been a minute since I've checked international play, but is Italy looking better than the Netherlands?
cjs4585

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Reply with quote  #5 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrot


Been a minute since I've checked international play, but is Italy looking better than the Netherlands?


Yeah, that's the conundrum. From what I've seen in the world championship, Italy looks better. I think it could go either way though. They are ranked 8th(Netherlands) and 9th(italy) in the world.
Mazeltov

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If PUR stands for Puerto Rico, why not call themselves PURI
Cletis

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Looking forward to 2020
cjs4585

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Quote:
Originally Posted by nolefan


I have heard the Americas qualifier will include the top 6 teams only (not including any team that has already qualified...assuming US will qualify in 2018 at the worlds) that will be invited to compete in this qualifier? I expect Mexico will be the toughest competition and then remaining spot will be up for grabs. Too bad not every country has the same rules for eligibility - some are more lax than others (i.e. PR). IMO the WSBC should set the eligibility requirements to make it fair for every team competing at the international level. 


From the link above (which is the official wbsc site) Americas qualifier will have "up to" 16 teams, meaning it won't include countries like the us who have already qualified.

Mexico has Dallas escobedo who is very good but it's tough to get through against very good teams with one good pitcher. Canada is a better hitting team, and has Lawrie. Caira has also been a serviceable backup. If Lawrie gets up to full speed they are going to be tough to deal with. PUR is starting to hit better, and ocasio and Gordon have been good additions. In addition they have 4 top college (or recently graduated) pitchers including two from last year's finals (alvelo, king). They have not been consistent in international play and the PUR coaching staff has struggled a bit in managing them. That said, there is a lot of talent there, and if they learn how to manage that pitching depth, they are going to be tough to beat as well. I'll still stick with my predictions, PUR, US and CAN from the Americas.

As far as Japan and US. It's the same story. Pitching depth is hard to beat. Japan has a fantastic lineup. Someone should go there and study how they train their hitters, because they have these small, unassuming looking athletes just smashing the ball. They have Ueno who is one of the top 3 pitchers in the world, maybe the best. The problem is Fujita, although good, is a step down and it goes down from there. With the US, they have 2 of the top 3 pitchers in the world and their back ups are Kelly Barnhill, Rachel Garcia and danielle O'Toole. I'm not sure of the exact format of the Olympic tournament but if they have to play more than 1 game, the us will have the advantage.
homerun107

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China bout to shock the WORLD!!
HenryLouisAaron

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Reply with quote  #10 
Anyone else see that "game winning hit" by Kelsey Stewart that gave the World Championship to team USA..?
A LOT of people are saying it was a foul ball.
What did you think?

It was a gb down the third base line. A still pic I saw looks like it "might" have been foul.
Japanese fans are saying the game was given away by a bad call.
SBFan101

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Reply with quote  #11 
Quote:
Originally Posted by HenryLouisAaron
Anyone else see that "game winning hit" by Kelsey Stewart that gave the World Championship to team USA..?
A LOT of people are saying it was a foul ball.
What did you think?

It was a gb down the third base line. A still pic I saw looks like it "might" have been foul.
Japanese fans are saying the game was given away by a bad call.


And, here we go... more of the same talk that happens right after the WCWS
Still_JAD

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Why are they not inviting 8 teams for the Olympics with a format similar to the WCWS?
cjs4585

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Still_JAD
Why are they not inviting 8 teams for the Olympics with a format similar to the WCWS?


I read the 6 teams was a compromise with the IOC for approving the request to allow softball/baseball back in. The host country can nominate up to 5 sports on a provisional basis and softball/baseball was one. The others were karate, skateboard, sports climbing and surfboard. I don't have any clue why the IOC thought 6 was better than 8 though.
cjs4585

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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerun107
China bout to shock the WORLD!!


I think the only way that might happen is if one of their pitchers leaps high enough to reach orbit 😉
Fresh

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Reply with quote  #15 
Get a life.
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Wiseone234

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Reply with quote  #16 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjs4585


From the link above (which is the official wbsc site) Americas qualifier will have "up to" 16 teams, meaning it won't include countries like the us who have already qualified.

Mexico has Dallas escobedo who is very good but it's tough to get through against very good teams with one good pitcher. Canada is a better hitting team, and has Lawrie. Caira has also been a serviceable backup. If Lawrie gets up to full speed they are going to be tough to deal with. PUR is starting to hit better, and ocasio and Gordon have been good additions. In addition they have 4 top college (or recently graduated) pitchers including two from last year's finals (alvelo, king). They have not been consistent in international play and the PUR coaching staff has struggled a bit in managing them. That said, there is a lot of talent there, and if they learn how to manage that pitching depth, they are going to be tough to beat as well. I'll still stick with my predictions, PUR, US and CAN from the Americas.

As far as Japan and US. It's the same story. Pitching depth is hard to beat. Japan has a fantastic lineup. Someone should go there and study how they train their hitters, because they have these small, unassuming looking athletes just smashing the ball. They have Ueno who is one of the top 3 pitchers in the world, maybe the best. The problem is Fujita, although good, is a step down and it goes down from there. With the US, they have 2 of the top 3 pitchers in the world and their back ups are Kelly Barnhill, Rachel Garcia and danielle O'Toole. I'm not sure of the exact format of the Olympic tournament but if they have to play more than 1 game, the us will have the advantage.


I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that OToole will not be on the Olympic team. Ricketts and Abbott are too good of lefties and Garcia and Barnhill are two great righties. They may carry five and there may be some other talent that comes their way but I really only see them carrying four at most.
If the Romero sisters don’t make the US team next summer I wouldn’t be shocked if they went to the Mexican team. Sierra Romero says she will be in the Olympics and I think she will try with Mexico if she doesn’t get on that team.
Mazeltov

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México will get reinforcements before the PanAm games next July.
UMassFan

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Reply with quote  #18 
I think Puerto Rico will be getting some reinforcements too. It should be a battle for that last spot in the Americas
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Lauren

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Reply with quote  #19 
I have only seen the one (bad) angle but I thought that was a foul. Would love to see a better angle.

I don’t understand how Puerto Rico goes. Aren’t they an American protectorate?

I’m worried about Aus making it. We did loads better than 2016, but our pitching depth is atrocious. Gabbie Plain has to be in every team from now on (barring college commitments) Batting we rely on Porter and Titsrokonis hitting home runs. We don’t have a consistent top 9. (And baffling decision. Tamieka Whitfield barely batted. Gets put in and hits a bomb against Lawrie. We had players who were batting under 0.1!)

Fielding is normally top notch though. That game against America was a killer as there were zero earned run for America
34sDad

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Reply with quote  #20 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolefan


Reinforcements shouldn't be difficult to get for Puerto Rico as their rules for eligibility to play for their country are very lax compared to other countries in the Americas. The WBSC should make the rules across the board for all the countries so it's fair for everyone. 


It would be self-defeating not allowing relaxed standards because without them there wouldn't be any softball in the 2020 Olympics.  
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #21 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolefan


Reinforcements shouldn't be difficult to get for Puerto Rico as their rules for eligibility to play for their country are very lax compared to other countries in the Americas. The WBSC should make the rules across the board for all the countries so it's fair for everyone. 
I don't understand why PR doesn't have an open tryout where anyone with a US passport can participate
Softball98mom

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Reply with quote  #22 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 34sDad


It would be self-defeating not allowing relaxed standards because without them there wouldn't be any softball in the 2020 Olympics.  


There are 1000’s of girls that play softball, the sport would still exist with standards for every country. The teams may be made up of different players but there would still be teams. At this point, it looks like it’s a race for the bronze anyway. USA and Japan will take the 1-2 spot, just not sure which one yet. If Ueno doesn’t have to pitch 17 innings in one day, Japan could win. Otherwise USA will have 4-5 pitchers to use if they keep who they have now. They could win the Gold if they can continue to keep pitchers on the playing field when not pitching.
Lauren

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Reply with quote  #23 
The biggest issue is that he reason softball got booted is because of American domination of the sport.

Having a US side and a US territory full of women born on the American mainland isn’t going to change that.

And let’s say Mexico pulls off a huge upset and it’s Puerto Rico and Mexico at the Olympics. (I doubt this)

You then have THREE sides full of American mainland born players at the Olympics.

It’s going to be s battle to get to 2024. That would make it impossible.
all4AU

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Reply with quote  #24 
I have my worries about Australia too. Not only have they participated in every softball Olympic Games, they along with USA are the only countries to medal at every Olympics. Winning the Asia/Oceania qualifier over China and Chinese Taipei will be tough.
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cjs4585

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Reply with quote  #25 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lauren
The biggest issue is that he reason softball got booted is because of American domination of the sport.

Having a US side and a US territory full of women born on the American mainland isn’t going to change that.

And let’s say Mexico pulls off a huge upset and it’s Puerto Rico and Mexico at the Olympics. (I doubt this)

You then have THREE sides full of American mainland born players at the Olympics.

It’s going to be s battle to get to 2024. That would make it impossible.


I think Canada has a better shot than Mexico, and to be fair, less than half of the PUR team is mainland born from what I can tell, but what you are saying is a concern. It's a bit weird because Paris has the 2024 Olympics but LA has 2028. Presumably the US will want the Olympics in, and the host country does have quite a bit of say. So what are they going to do? Yank softball for Paris and put it back in for LA? I think that's unlikely. They'll come to some arrangement but it may be that going forward they will change the rules to make it more favorable to European and Asian countries. 
cjs4585

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Reply with quote  #26 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
I don't understand why PR doesn't have an open tryout where anyone with a US passport can participate


Because although those from PUR are US citizens, the other way around is not true. PUR citizenship requires at least a grandparent to be a native citizen of PUR (at least those are the rules as they were explained to me). There are other ways to become a citizen as well but US citizens are not automatically Puerto Rican citizens.
Lauren

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Reply with quote  #27 
Quote:
Originally Posted by all4AU
I have my worries about Australia too. Not only have they participated in every softball Olympic Games, they along with USA are the only countries to medal at every Olympics. Winning the Asia/Oceania qualifier over China and Chinese Taipei will be tough.


Yup.

Honestly I’m beyond pissed there’s going to be 3 North American teams at the Olympics. Half the field!

Honestly have one from Europe, America and Asia/Oceania.

Then sides coming second all play off.

Because the way it’s going you’re going to have the world number 8 or 9 at the Olympics and potentially not 3 or 4.
lovsofbal

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Reply with quote  #28 
I just don't get the 6 team field, especially since it's in Japan.
Fresh

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Reply with quote  #29 
It's an exhibition sport. Be glad we're there at all.
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lovsofbal

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Reply with quote  #30 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fresh
It's an exhibition sport. Be glad we're there at all.


I know that. I didn't just get off the turnip truck. still stupid
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