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mikec

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Reply with quote  #31 
EG - there aren't 21 million people living 6 ft above sea level.  Come on man.  My sister in law is about 5 miles inland, and she's at 45 feet.

With FEMA, when you rebuild, you must elevate.  No habitable spaces within the coastal flood area in your area.  On the West Coast of FL, it's usually 12 feet.  The inlaws live on a barrier island, and their first floor is 14 ft above grade, which is at 8 feet.  They are not allowed to place anything permanent in the basement.

New houses are built to withstand something like 135 mph winds.  That is almost always sufficient.  You gonna tell farmers in the breadbasket they can't rebuild because they got hit with 180 mph winds? 

In FL, the state is the insurer more often than not.   All of the private companies pulled out.  My insurance when I lived there was $14,000/yr.  You multiply that out over all of the people in coastal areas, coupled with the rarity of a big storm, and it adds up to a lot of money.

We didn't even get off the sofa for Cat 1 storms.  We'd watch the newspeople get jazzed, and we'd be amused.  Same for Cat 2's.  Cat 3's brought enough wind to bring down utilities and trees.  Older homes were damaged, mine was fine.

Plus, you might be interested to know, that the state insurer carries a very high deductible for named storms.  I had a tree limb fall through my pool screen, and it didn't get to 20% of the deductible to replace the cage and the screen, so I didn't file a claim.  I knew many people that year in the same boat, so to speak.

It's not a state of 20 million freeloaders living the dream and getting new beachfront homes every few years.
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #32 
As expected.
1-I wrote 'average' of 6 feet. Did you see that and just ignore it?
2-I lived in Florida from '87 - '90. I'm aware of the demographics.
3-Anyone who thinks that these storms don't cost insane amount of unrecouped taxpayer funds is wrong.

So here's my solution. Florida, the Carolina barrier islands, and whatever other coastal areas makes sense gets this deal:

No federal funds if you stay. Use the federal funds to relocate. Yea of course the 'economy' of florida will be crushed. That's the cost of facing reality. Anybody who stays can get insurance, or just live dangerous. No more federal money.

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woody

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Reply with quote  #33 
Well, lets require the entire Eastern seaboard all move to Colorado and live in abandoned mine shafts.
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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #34 
Easy now. Of course there will always be natural disaster. I'm only talking about a large geographic area that is insanely situated and has been proven to be a regular in need of massive bailout and rebuild.And yea, I'm ok with jersey being abandoned as well.
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mikec

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Reply with quote  #35 
"in regular need of massive bailout and rebuild" is totally false.  sort of like 21 million people at 6 feet, average or otherwise.

your statement quoted above would include all the Midwest states prone to tornadoes also.
pabar61

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Reply with quote  #36 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce
As expected.
1-I wrote 'average' of 6 feet. Did you see that and just ignore it?
2-I lived in Florida from '87 - '90. I'm aware of the demographics.
3-Anyone who thinks that these storms don't cost insane amount of unrecouped taxpayer funds is wrong.

So here's my solution. Florida, the Carolina barrier islands, and whatever other coastal areas makes sense gets this deal:

No federal funds if you stay. Use the federal funds to relocate. Yea of course the 'economy' of florida will be crushed. That's the cost of facing reality. Anybody who stays can get insurance, or just live dangerous. No more federal money.


Yes - come to California and help support the illegal immigrants, the snowflakes and the fake liberals driving their Teslas and Prius's which get re-charged by electricity created at coal-fired plants.

Then, when the big one hits, you can use the federal funds to move back to Florida and ask yourself what the hell you were thinking.
Fresh

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Reply with quote  #37 
California Electricity generating sources. Coal is .14%. 
As usual, don't let the truth get in the way of one of your dark net parables.

Total System Electric Generation

2016 Total System Electric Generation in Gigawatt Hours
Fuel TypeCalifornia
In-State Generation (GWh)
Percent of California
In-State Generation
Northwest Imports (GWh)Southwest Imports (GWh)California Energy Mix (GWh)California Power Mix
Coal3240.16%37311,31012,0064.13%
Large Hydro24,41012.31%3,3671,90429,68110.21%
Natural Gas98,83149.86%417,120105,99236.48%
Nuclear18,9319.55%07,73926,6709.18%
Oil370.02%00370.01%
Other (Petroleum Coke/Waste Heat)3940.20%003940.14%
Renewables55,30027.90%11,7106,95273,96125.45%
Biomass5,8682.96%659256,5532.26%
Geothermal11,5825.84%961,03812,7174.38%
Small Hydro4,5672.30%22914,7961.65%
Solar19,7839.98%03,79123,5748.11%
Wind13,5006.81%10,7252,09726,3219.06%
Unspecified Sources of PowerN/AN/A26,88814,93741,82514.39%
Total198,227100.00%42,37849,963290,567100.00%

Source: CEC-1304 Power Plant Owners Reporting Form and SB 1305 Reporting Regulations. 
In-state generation is reported generation from units one megawatt and larger.

Contact: Michael Nyberg, Michael.Nyberg@energy.ca.gov

Data as of June 23, 2017

Total system electric generation is defined as the annual energy delivered from wholesale power plants, including self-generation supply, to meet annual demand. It was formerly referred to as Total System Power.


The Year in Review

In 2016, total system electric generation for California was 290,567 gigawatt-hours (GWh), down 1.6 percent from 2015’s total generation of 295,405 GWh. California’s non CO2 emitting electric generation categories (nuclear, large hydroelectric, and renewable generation) accounted for 50 percent of total in-state generation for 2016, compared to 40 percent in 2015. While California's in-state electric generation was up by 1.0 percent at 198,227 GWh compared to 196,195 GWh in 2015, net imports were down by 6,869 GWh to 92,341 GWh leading to an overall decrease in total generation for the year. This decline is consistent with the recently published California Energy Demand Updated Forecast, 2017-2027.

“For statewide electricity consumption, the new forecast begins about 1 percent below CED 2015 in 2015, reflecting less actual economic growth in California than predicted early in 2015 for the early years of the forecast, particularly in the Northern and Central Valleys. While economic growth was more modest for the near-term forecast horizon, consumption in the updated mid scenario grows at a slightly higher rate through 2026 as compared with the CED 2015 mid demand scenario due to more optimistic long-term economic growth expectations. Updated statewide non-coincident weather-normalized peak demand is around 1 percent lower than predicted in the CED 2015 mid case in 2016 and grows at a slightly higher rate from 2016-2026 in the new mid case for the same reason as consumption—more modest expectations for near-term growth but an optimistic long-term outlook.”1

As mentioned in the Total System Electric Generation summary for 2015, lower baseline per capita electricity consumption resulting from federal appliance efficiency standards and higher self-generation from behind-the-meter roof-top solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems continue to reduce total retail sales that, in turn, reduce total energy delivered from traditional utility-scale power plants as measured by Total System Electric Generation.2

 

woody

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Reply with quote  #38 
Or, you could be like California, and pass laws that prevent the clearing and burning of underbrush, then scream for disaster relief when wildfires burn uncontrollably.
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Rats flee from the sinking vessel. They traverse nimbly upon a rope, safely cleated to the dock, that is private enterprise. Socialism is dead, and tits up in the water. A bloated, death show, for rubberneckers of all classes to view.

"IT'S GOOD TO BE DA KING"
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #39 
Let me simplify, my message is a tad cloudy. Live wherever the F you want. Insure  your sh1t as you see fit. There will be no federal (IE taxpayer) money to bail you out if your sh1t gets F'd up by natural disaster. There you have it.
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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #40 
Fill up, take as much fuel as possible with you.  Stop multiple times as you get closer to Tampa.  Eventually the stations will run out, and you need enough to get back out of there.  

I hope they get those people some fuel.   I feel for those guys in those fuel trucks leaving their safe families and running fuel down to 

They are saying now could impact every major city.  Good luck.  Let us know when you are back and safe. 

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #41 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce
Let me simplify, my message is a tad cloudy. Live wherever the F you want. Insure  your sh1t as you see fit. There will be no federal (IE taxpayer) money to bail you out if your sh1t gets F'd up by natural disaster. There you have it.

Unfortunately it is a bit more complex.  

There are definitely people that live in way too easy to flood areas.   I knew more about this from Missouri.  There were people that lived there that counted on flood money every 5-10 years. They would get flooded.  Government would determine it would take 50k to replace the home.  They would take that money, rip the wall board out, power wash the studs and put it back together for 8k, pocketing the 42k.  They lived in crapholes to do that, but that was fine for them.  Certainly we need to weed that out.

But you have situations, it is hard to say all people hit by a hurricane.  Take Houston.  Some are saying that was a 1000 year event, time will finalize that estimate.  But if it was a 1000 year event, then you have a lot of flooding in a lot of areas that will rarely, if ever flood.  

Take Irma, hitting FL now.  You sustained winds in the 185mph range.  Based on the size and what we saw happen in Virgin Islands, probably at least a 1000 year event.  

Look at Richard Bransons compound.  I guarantee that thing was engineered to the 500 year storm level.  That is a beyond reasonably safe design for a structure in built in that area.  You can count that he did not cut corners.  Still Irma leveled it. 

These rare oversized events, people that built reasonably from a flood perspective, from a wind perspective.  That is what National Flood insurance is about. 

Good chance FL gets a lot of new building codes after this storm goes through. 

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #42 
Picture of a Nuclear plant that looks like it will take a direct hit.  Seems not smart to have built that close to the ocean, and that low of land. 

[8S8Vbnc] 



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woody

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Reply with quote  #43 
Ask the Japanese what they think of building Nuke Plants right on the ocean.
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Rats flee from the sinking vessel. They traverse nimbly upon a rope, safely cleated to the dock, that is private enterprise. Socialism is dead, and tits up in the water. A bloated, death show, for rubberneckers of all classes to view.

"IT'S GOOD TO BE DA KING"
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #44 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist

Unfortunately it is a bit more complex.  

There are definitely people that live in way too easy to flood areas.   I knew more about this from Missouri.  There were people that lived there that counted on flood money every 5-10 years. They would get flooded.  Government would determine it would take 50k to replace the home.  They would take that money, rip the wall board out, power wash the studs and put it back together for 8k, pocketing the 42k.  They lived in crapholes to do that, but that was fine for them.  Certainly we need to weed that out.

But you have situations, it is hard to say all people hit by a hurricane.  Take Houston.  Some are saying that was a 1000 year event, time will finalize that estimate.  But if it was a 1000 year event, then you have a lot of flooding in a lot of areas that will rarely, if ever flood.  

Take Irma, hitting FL now.  You sustained winds in the 185mph range.  Based on the size and what we saw happen in Virgin Islands, probably at least a 1000 year event.  

Look at Richard Bransons compound.  I guarantee that thing was engineered to the 500 year storm level.  That is a beyond reasonably safe design for a structure in built in that area.  You can count that he did not cut corners.  Still Irma leveled it. 

These rare oversized events, people that built reasonably from a flood perspective, from a wind perspective.  That is what National Flood insurance is about. 

Good chance FL gets a lot of new building codes after this storm goes through. 


Not sure what to make of this. My premise was, people can insure as they see fit. Seems like all of your examples are people who should have no trouble getting insured, because calamity is relatively rare. So no worries for them. I'm just saying, no matter what your choices, don't expect taxpayer money to bail you out. That's what insurance is for.

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #45 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
Picture of a Nuclear plant that looks like it will take a direct hit.  Seems not smart to have built that close to the ocean, and that low of land. 

[8S8Vbnc] 




Why it isn't front page news is inexplicable. Well, except that trump did call ivanka 'honey' in front of a cnn reporter, so that took precedence.

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #46 
Now they are evacuating Savannah.
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mikec

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Reply with quote  #47 
First UWA - thanks for the well wishes for the fam.  About 8 plus a dog made it halfway here today, and are coming the rest of the way tomorrow.  Another 4 are coming Saturday.

It has shifted west a bit, and is goin to affect just about all of the peninsula.  It's going to be bad.

Savannah (my birthplace) is very much in the cross hairs also.  Even in North Georgia, they expected that we could get hurricane force winds and rain.  It may still be a hurricane as far north as Athens Georgia, which of course affects us too.

My kin asked today if there's any chance I could flood.  I told them we are 200 feet above the valley below (which may well flood from the rivlet down there that drains this whole area), but if the water comes this high, we're lighting candles, getting on our knees, praying, and awaiting the end of times.

I hope it doesn't come to any of that.

My sister (this one's for EG) lives on a canal.  Her house was built 50 years ago, and has never flooded.  Her husband runs an ER down in the Tampa area.  Starting today, he is on 24-hr shifts.

He attended a special emergency management meeting, where they told him to expect significant surge (6-10, depending upon how far away it is). He called her and told her to leave.  So, her and her newborn are with the rest that will be here tomorrow.

Was sad talking to her yesterday, and she was prioritizing what to save to bring with, because at 10 feet surge, they are a total loss.

Anyways, will be a long 4 or 5 days I'm sure.  I told her to plan to be here 10 days, because if that happens, she won't be going back anytime soon anyways.

We'll see.  Prepare for the best, pray for the best as they say.

TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #48 
Will be praying for you and yours Mike...
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mikec

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Reply with quote  #49 
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/07/investing/nuclear-plants-shutdown-florida-irma/

Interesting story about the nuke plants.  Two of them are in the path.  One of them survived Andrew's direct hit.  Hope they both are ok now - with everything else, nuke plants in meltdown is not something that anyone needs to deal with.
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #50 
Best wishes Mike. 
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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #51 
Don't look now.  But there is Jose out in the Atlantic.  It seems to be following Irma pretty close.  Of course it is likely that will change.  It is currently listed as a Cat 3. Was a Cat 1 2 days ago. 

Let us know if there is anything we can do to help out.



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keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #52 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce


Why it isn't front page news is inexplicable. Well, except that trump did call ivanka 'honey' in front of a cnn reporter, so that took precedence.


I've called my daughter honey at times

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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
mikec

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Reply with quote  #53 
Thanks guys. The meteorologist blogs I read expect Jose to do a loop, then come back to south fl. They may get hit twice in 8 days.

In '04, we had 4 storms go over us. Pretty much rained for 5 weeks.

Anyways - I thought this was cool. The Braves announced free tickets for evacuees over the weekend with Fl, coastal Ga, or coastal SC ID. They said they wanted to help give folks a few hours to destress.

Might be a good way to get some folks outta the house for a few hours. [smile]
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #54 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikec
First UWA - thanks for the well wishes for the fam.  About 8 plus a dog made it halfway here today, and are coming the rest of the way tomorrow.  Another 4 are coming Saturday.

It has shifted west a bit, and is going to affect just about all of the peninsula.  It's going to be bad.  I think so too, stay safe and stay smart Mike C

Savannah (my birthplace) is very much in the cross hairs also.  Even in North Georgia, they expected that we could get hurricane force winds and rain.  It may still be a hurricane as far north as Athens Georgia, which of course affects us too.  I'm telling you, the rain is just as bad as the hurricane when it just sits there churning over any land mass, there will be horrendous flooding in more than Florida

My kin asked today if there's any chance I could flood.  I told them we are 200 feet above the valley below (which may well flood from the rivlet down there that drains this whole area), but if the water comes this high, we're lighting candles, getting on our knees, praying, and awaiting the end of times.  You chose land well, it sounds like, the higher ALWAYS the better, whatever State that you live in.

I hope it doesn't come to any of that.  It won't

My sister (this one's for EG) lives on a canal.  Her house was built 50 years ago, and has never flooded.  Her husband runs an ER down in the Tampa area.  Starting today, he is on 24-hr shifts.

He attended a special emergency management meeting, where they told him to expect significant surge (6-10, depending upon how far away it is). He called her and told her to leave.  So, her and her newborn are with the rest that will be here tomorrow.  Sounds like the best place for her, the baby and for him.  He'll be needed and she'll be well taken care of

Was sad talking to her yesterday, and she was prioritizing what to save to bring with, because at 10 feet surge, they are a total loss.

Anyways, will be a long 4 or 5 days I'm sure.  It was a horribly long 5 days for us but we didn't flood because while I am near a river, the town is a natural bluff, 35 feet above sea level.  I always tell people that if I flood, there will be 1 million deaths in Houston and I'm not even schitting saying that.  I told her to plan to be here 10 days, because if that happens, she won't be going back anytime soon anyways.  So sorry for her, it sounds dire for their homestead.  Don't tell her I said that

We'll see.  Prepare for the best, pray for the best as they say.


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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
mikec

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Reply with quote  #55 
thanks KIR.  As I told my sis, if it rains here for a couple days, well, it stinks to live at the bottom of the hill.

Can't even imagine what 50 inches of rain, and the associated flooding, must've been like.  The dread of waiting for a storm to hit weighs on you, then you get slammed with that.  Hate to imagine it.

Saw this pic on a weather site, they did it just to show the size of this storm.  More powerful, and much larger, than Andrew.  There are a lot of mobile home parks in that spine of FL path they're looking at now.

[Irma]
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #56 
Saw this online.

>In the middle of the street, holding open a big trash bag. Loot will just blow right into it. The stronger the winds, the better the loot.

Going outside in the middle of a nuclear gatorcane
That sounds like a really Really Bad Idea

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TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #57 
Unreal:

No automatic alt text available.

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #58 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikec
Thanks guys. The meteorologist blogs I read expect Jose to do a loop, then come back to south fl. They may get hit twice in 8 days. In '04, we had 4 storms go over us. Pretty much rained for 5 weeks. Anyways - I thought this was cool. The Braves announced free tickets for evacuees over the weekend with Fl, coastal Ga, or coastal SC ID. They said they wanted to help give folks a few hours to destress. Might be a good way to get some folks outta the house for a few hours. [smile]

That is a great idea. 

Baseball got really all turned inside out somehow.  They used to give tickets away to little leaguer's.  All the time.  They were really just the seats they were not going to sell anyway.  But I still remember going to my dad and telling him he had to take us.   Anyway was talking to someone else the other day, and this came up.  How baseball does not do some of the simple things they used to do to get connected with the community.  

Good for the Braves.  

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TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #59 
well, there are always plenty of seats available for the Braves, right?
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Dewey on victims of sexual assault:  Both women later switched their stories.  Was there a reward or something else behind their change?  Who knows?
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #60 
I guess the insurance coverage is falling a little short. Where is this 15 Billion coming from?




"The $15.25 billion package represents an initial payment as Texas recovers from its devastating storm and residents across the southeast brace for impact from Irma – a storm sure to require billions more from the federal government."

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