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TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #1 
Tracking in the Atlantic right now.  Third strongest wind speed on record at 180 MPH and looking to track north and hit Florida.

After Harvey this will put a burden on everyone and will heavily impact budget negotiations.
PDad

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Reply with quote  #2 
Agree - I'm especially concerned about FEMA's ability to support Florida given the resources committed for Harvey.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #3 
Unfortunately if it hits FL, that may actually be a good thing.  That thing gets into the warm waters of the Gulf, it could go over the top and slam right into the already water logged Houston area.  That would be a nightmare scenario. 

Hopefully it catches a bit more of those islands than it currently looks to be doing.

Those islands and FL are pretty well setup for Hurricanes.  It will still cause issues. But never as bad as when the Gulf States get hit.

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keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #4 
Luckily our first 'cold' front will save us from Irma
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PDad

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Reply with quote  #5 
Yep, models are predicting a lot of different paths and none reach LA/TX.

[storm_11%2B%25287%2529] 
Lost_1

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Reply with quote  #6 
Geezzz, fly out saturday for a week of scuba diving, and cerveza on the beach in Cozumel. 
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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #7 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad
Yep, models are predicting a lot of different paths and none reach LA/TX.

[storm_11%2B%25287%2529] 

There are 3 tracks that are concerning.  

That yellow that goes out into the gulf.  The red one that turns yellow goes up the gulf side of FL and that blue-purple one that takes a hard right turn.  

Hopefully the cold front stays organized and keep Irma from crossing the gulf.  Still don like those Mississippi and Alabama tracks either. Those can be pretty bad ones.  Anything that has it linger over the unusually warm gulf will be trouble. 

The tracks that turn grey early, lose their energy over the islands are much preferred.

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mikec

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Reply with quote  #8 
Talked to friends in Tampa.  They are already out of water, gas, plywood, duct tape, batteries, and other basics - and it's still 5 days out.

Flooding will be an issue, but from surge, not rain.  Just saw a 2PM dropsonde picked up 185 mph winds.  Wind damage will be absolutely catastrophic, with many, many structures rendered uninhabitable.

I am going to have to go down to Central FL in the next day or two to retrieve some family.  If this hits the west coast of FL, it will make Harvey look like an amateur.  Think Hurricane Andrew type destruction.
TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #9 
Godspeed Mike - this will certainly spread FEMA thin.
woody

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Reply with quote  #10 
http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/05/virgin-islands-allows-national-guard-to-seize-guns-ammo-ahead-of-hurricane-irma/

WTF is this? The National Guard doesn't have weapons? I call Bill Smith.

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #11 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikec
Talked to friends in Tampa.  They are already out of water, gas, plywood, duct tape, batteries, and other basics - and it's still 5 days out.

Flooding will be an issue, but from surge, not rain.  Just saw a 2PM dropsonde picked up 185 mph winds.  Wind damage will be absolutely catastrophic, with many, many structures rendered uninhabitable.

I am going to have to go down to Central FL in the next day or two to retrieve some family.  If this hits the west coast of FL, it will make Harvey look like an amateur.  Think Hurricane Andrew type destruction.

Don't wait.  With a monster like that coming in, things are going to get nutty in FL. 

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mikec

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Reply with quote  #12 
Yeah, they're nutty already.  Might have to rent a mini-van to get everyone.  Right now, nobody wants to leave.  Floridians have been through so many near-misses that they are jaded.  It's the one that doesn't miss, of course, that kills everyone.

I did damage assessments on the ground after Andrew.  Just unbelievable.  I've been on the ground after a few others in the Panhandle within about 12 hours, and it can get bad.

Sad to see so much destroyed so quickly.
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #13 
You are absolutely correct, this one [if it hits Florida] will match Andrew destruction, even after all the building code upgrades
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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
mikec

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Reply with quote  #14 
Quote:
Originally Posted by keepinitreal
You are absolutely correct, this one [if it hits Florida] will match Andrew destruction, even after all the building code upgrades


still lots of old stuff that isn't up to code.  heck, even if it is up to code - the code is only 130 or so.  At 175+, any gables on your roof are like a pop-top pull tab.  Your roof will gone in a second.  Trees down, traffic signals gone, power lines and poles non existent, roads gone.

After Andrew, it looked like MOAB had exploded.

Depending upon where this goes, I may be in FL doing clean up.  Just gotta see.  I also have to convince the in-laws to get out.  Too many near-misses has people stocking up, but not preparing.  They think it won't really hit, so they'll just have some bottled water and tuna fish for the rest of summer.
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #15 
I've worked at least 5 Hurricane recoveries myself including this one, Harvey.  I never worked one as powerful as Andrew, I just saw pictures and video and it'll be an exact replay if this one hits land.  I remember Andrew did look like MOAB.  I haven't kept up with the track of Irma, I'll go look now.  Can we direct it to Bamaturd's trailer park?
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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #16 
[image]
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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #17 
[image][image][image][image][image]
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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
mikec

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Reply with quote  #18 
These storms hate trailer parks, that's for sure.

I am sure your response was more taxing than mine.

Immediately after (like 4-12 hours), I was trying to help prioritize needs and match and direct pre-positioned assets to areas that needed them most: power crews here, national guard there, roadbuilders in the other place, search and rescue, etc.  After that (took a week or so sometimes), then we'd try to help direct resources to infrastructure needs - roads, traffic signals, signs, bridges, etc.  So, much of my work was with a camera and a clipboard - not as heroic as the work I know you did.

For one storm, all of the homes, roads, and everything else on a barrier island was pushed into the bay.  The island was nothing but sand.

On that one, we were in there quickly.  A 16 foot storm surge hit, and washed away everything - even the sand dunes.  As it turned out, there were some mysterious concrete cylinder things that were about 16-18 feet tall, that had previously been buried under sand.  They were the only things left - sticking up out of the sand like some sort of Martian structures.

Like I said, we happened to get there quickly after that one.  We had been following closely, staying in the Cat 1ish area, because we knew the islands would be decimated by a wall of water, and we wanted to get there fast.

After we were there for a bit, some nice folks showed up, told us we had not seen anything, and we could come back tomorrow.  They had much nicer weaponry and equipment than we did, so we gladly obliged.

The next day, the beautiful dunes had returned, and all of the concrete cylinders were buried, er I mean were never there.
TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #19 
Image may contain: cloud and text
mikec

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Reply with quote  #20 
Tough storm to be sure.  Now it looks like Savannah/Charleston are in the crosshairs.

We had a cold front come through last night. I hope it steers this thing out to be a fish spinner, and avoids land.
woody

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Reply with quote  #21 
That's a bad one fer shore. Batten down the hatches, and hunker down. Better yet get the F outta there.
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Anarcho Capitalism. Get some, and no you can't have any of my money to live off of you Socialist Democrat.

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #22 
I think it is pow, right up the middle of Florida.   Hopefully them islands knock it down quite a bit.  Maybe to a 3.  Let's hope.  Stay safe.
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woody

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Reply with quote  #23 
If you are inland 100 miles from the landfall, you may survive some of the damaging winds, but living in an area less than 18' above sea level won't help with flooding.
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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #24 
Maybe one day we can have a sane discussion about who has to bear the cost of cities and towns and people who continue to rebuild in a coastal zone. It is unsustainable financially. How much money will we torch before someone has the nerve to call No Joy on the rebuild. Or call 'No More Aid' if you rebuild?
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woody

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Reply with quote  #25 
It's called flood insurance. After 3, or maybe it is 4 times, they buy you out. Everyone else is on their own. Many mortgages in flood zones require flood insurance. I have a customer that is on rebuild #2, and she says this is the last one for them. I know State Farm stopped offering coverage in coastal zones after IKE. Still, people build beach and bay houses, and spend millions doing so. Somebody is willing to insure them, and take the risk. Remember, FEMA may offer low interest loans for those without flood insurance, but they aren't handing out money with no payback included. I'm sure there are handouts to the gimmedats, and section 8 builders, but everyone else pays.
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Anarcho Capitalism. Get some, and no you can't have any of my money to live off of you Socialist Democrat.

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #26 
I hear ya, brother. If only that was the extent of the problem. But it isn't.

"White House officials and congressional leaders are discussing a plan that would authorize roughly $6 billion in emergency assistance to deal with the devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey, and President Trump could send a specific request for the funding as soon as Friday, people briefed on the discussions said."


Where is this 6 Billion dollars ultimately coming from? Printing press in the basement of the Fed? Or taxpayers? 

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #27 
So, Florida. 21 million people living an average of 6 feet above seal level? I love the beach too. But I don't live on it. 
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TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #28 
Taxpayers. With Trump and the current leaders in the congress, no chance for cuts.
Fresh

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Reply with quote  #29 
How would you determine who was eligible(legitimate catastrophe) for FEMA aid? Would you set zones where aid was not available. What would that do to the economies of those areas? Would you remove FEMA alltogether?
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #30 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNarrator
Taxpayers. With Trump and the current leaders in the congress, no chance for cuts.


Roger that. And Katia and Jose lining up to bring the pain. Our country needs to rethink it's habitable boundaries.

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