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Tigers334

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Posts: 373
Reply with quote  #61 
With Baylor going 1-2 this weekend, Auburn might just sneak into hosting a regional. Don’t think it is deserved based on the body of work, but Carlson, Draper, and Shea deserve it for hanging around after last year’s fiasco.

Will stick to my previous predictions that Car Wall will get to finish or extend her career at Jane B next weekend.
TyCobb

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Reply with quote  #62 
So what is everyones final top 8?
Tigers334

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Reply with quote  #63 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyCobb
So what is everyones final top 8?


1) Oregon
2) UCLA
3) OU
4) UF
5) Washington
6) FSU
7) ASU
8) USC

sMurph

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Reply with quote  #64 

Here is my FINAL ANSWER for tomorrow. 

1. Oregon            16. Auburn
2. Florida             15. Arkansas
3. UCLA               14. Texas A&M
4. Oklahoma        13. Alabama
5. Arizona St        12. Arizona
6. Washington      11. Georgia
7. So Carolina      10.  LSU
8. Tennessee         9. Florida St.
midwestfp

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Posts: 923
Reply with quote  #65 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyCobb
So what is everyones final top 8?


1. Oregon
2. Florida
3. UCLA
4. Oklahoma 
5. Washington
6. Arizona State
7. Florida State
8. South Carolina  

edit - I had forgotten that SC swept TN.  


smcouvillion

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Posts: 441
Reply with quote  #66 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyCobb
So what is everyones final top 8?


My FINAL Seeding for Tomorrow:

1) Oregon
2) UCLA
3) Florida
4) Oklahoma
5) Arizona State
6) Washington
7) Florida State
8) South Carolina
9) Tennessee
10) LSU
11) Georgia
12) Arizona
13) Alabama
14) Texas A&M
15) Arkansas
16) Auburn
TyCobb

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Reply with quote  #67 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


1. Oregon
2. Florida
3. UCLA
4. Oklahoma 
5. Washington
6. Arizona State
7. Florida State
8. South Carolina  




I ll guess the same.
3leftturns

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Posts: 16,033
Reply with quote  #68 
My FINAL Seeding for Tomorrow:

1) Oregon
2) Florida
3) UCLA
4) Oklahoma
5) Arizona State
6) Washington
7) South Carolina
8) Tennessee
9) FSU
10) LSU
11) Georgia
12) Alabama
13) Arizona
14) Texas A&M
15) Arkansas
16) Kentucky
sMurph

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Posts: 545
Reply with quote  #69 

We have a great deal of consensus among those who have posted predictions for the top 8 and top 16. The most significant question if our collective thoughts are valid is ... among FSU, Tenn, and SC, which 2 make the top 8 and which 1 gets left out. Most of the above say So Carolina is IN with a pretty even split between FSU and Tenn. 
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #70 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph

We have a great deal of consensus among those who have posted predictions for the top 8 and top 16. The most significant question if our collective thoughts are valid is ... among FSU, Tenn, and SC, which 2 make the top 8 and which 1 gets left out. Most of the above say So Carolina is IN with a pretty even split between FSU and Tenn. 


I think FSU gets it. They have had a good season, with a win over Florida, which TN could not do, plus TN was run ruled by them, FSU beat them and lost by 4 runs instead of 8. Either way they will both go 8 and 9. But IMO, Florida State is a better team.
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #71 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion


I think FSU gets it. They have had a good season, with a win over Florida, which TN could not do, plus TN was run ruled by them, FSU beat them and lost by 4 runs instead of 8. Either way they will both go 8 and 9. But IMO, Florida State is a better team.




Except the Committee doesn't pick out 1 comparison between the 2 teams and decide based on that.  Tennessee's argument would be they are 1-0 vs Oregon, 1-0 vs Arizona St, and:

Wins vs Top 10:  FSU 2, Tenn 7
Wins vs Top 25:  FSU 7, Tenn 18

Every year when the Chair of the Committee gets interviewed about why some team was ahead of another, the most frequent thing they mention is wins vs Top 25. It's not the only thing, and FSU is deserving, they have a slightly better record, RPI and SOS
RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #72 
RPI wizards: What's your analysis on how the final RPI 16 will shake out? Will the committee have the final RPI for their work tomorrow?
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Gators2014

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Posts: 4,062
Reply with quote  #73 
1. Oregon             16. Auburn
2. Oklahoma         15. Alabama
3. Florida              14. Arkansas
4. UCLA                13. Texas A&M
5. ASU                  12. Georgia
6. Washington       11. LSU
7. South Carolina   10. Arizona
8. FSU                   9. Tennessee
azure

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Posts: 1,937
Reply with quote  #74 
I think you are protected against your own conference in regionals but not necessarily in super regionals.

Also they used to look at proximity and minimize travel and travel expense.  I assume that would not be an issue among the top 16

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Gators2014

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Posts: 4,062
Reply with quote  #75 
To answer the question though, the committee will do awful. We lay it out for them here and we always get garbage. 

These matchups would be so exciting to see and the seeds are definitely earned. 


1. Oregon             16. Auburn

2. Oklahoma         15. Alabama
3. Florida              14. Arkansas
4. UCLA                13. Texas A&M
5. ASU                  12. Georgia
6. Washington       11. LSU
7. South Carolina   10. Arizona
8. FSU                   9. Tennessee
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #76 
Carlson probably would love to try to get revenge on Oregon after they walloped her in her second college start
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #77 

Being the geek that I am, I just took a fresh look at a couple close calls on seeding and noticed something I had not focused on before.  

Who is #2 and #3 between Florida and UCLA?

I put Florida #2 in my projection above, but I'm not so sure about that. It is really remarkable that UCLA only lost 4 games all season playing 24 Pac12 games plus LSU, Mizzou, Minn, Ok St, etc.

UCLA lost 4 games. Florida lost 8 games
Both teams had losses to top 10 teams. UCLA had 3 such losses, UF had 4
But UCLA only lost 1 other game period - Stanford. Florida lost 4 other games -Alabama, Louisiana, UCF, FIU.   


Tennessee vs FSU

Out of FSU's 10 losses, 4 were to teams in the top 25. They lost 6 games to teams outside the top 25. 

Out of Tennessee's 12 losses, 11 were to teams in the top 25. They lost only 1 game to a team outside the top 25. 

CoachZ

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Reply with quote  #78 
If there is a way to do it, i think they’ll match up Oklahoma and Arkansas for Supers because of the distance.
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #79 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Carlson probably would love to try to get revenge on Oregon after they walloped her in her second college start



I will sit back in my recliner with a nice adult beverage and enjoy watching what Oregon will do to Auburn.   [tongue]
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #80 
I still can't believe FSU got no-hit by Kleist and beat the Ducks
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #81 

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachZ
If there is a way to do it, i think they’ll match up Oklahoma and Arkansas for Supers because of the distance.
I truly don't think that is ever a consideration.

However, there IS as good a chance as anything that Oklahoma  could be the 2 or 3 seed and Arkansas a 14 or 15

sMurph

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Reply with quote  #82 
Think about this. If you are Auburn or Arkansas or Kentucky, sure you would like to host a Regional at your home field. But if you win it, you have very, very, very slim chance to advance to the WCWS in a SR on the road at Oregon or UCLA or Florida or Okla.

But the one that does not get to host is probably gonna be sent to the FSU Regional. IMO -those teams have a better chance to pull off a regional win at FSU and SR win at Tennessee than they do to win a SR at Oregon/UCLA/FLA/OU.  Jus sayin


Gators2014

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Reply with quote  #83 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachZ
If there is a way to do it, i think they’ll match up Oklahoma and Arkansas for Supers because of the distance.


The committee is evil and loves drama. They will send Osorio to Norman to end her career just like they sent Chamberlain and co to Tuscaloosa in 2015.

The softball world needs 1 more Parker v Osorio matchup. 

Distance and geography for Super pairing hasn't been a factor in softball, which is why baseball is moving to the 1-16 seeding format like softball to avoid geographic-based Super regionals. 

It more fairly awards the 1-8 teams. In the current system in baseball of years past, the #1 overall seed could be hosting the "unnamed/unofficial" #9 seed if they're close to them while the #8 overall seed might be hosting the "unnamed/unofficial" #16 seed 
LSUsoftballfan

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Posts: 560
Reply with quote  #84 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gators2014
To answer the question though, the committee will do awful. We lay it out for them here and we always get garbage. 

These matchups would be so exciting to see and the seeds are definitely earned. 


1. Oregon             16. Auburn

2. Oklahoma         15. Alabama
3. Florida              14. Arkansas
4. UCLA                13. Texas A&M
5. ASU                  12. Georgia
6. Washington       11. LSU
7. South Carolina   10. Arizona
8. FSU                   9. Tennessee


I think there is literally zero chance Tennessee is left out of top 8. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see them at 6 or 7. As noted above, their resume has a ton of top 25 wins and almost no questionable losses. And no way they can possibly be seeded behind Florida State, again due to the numbers posted above.

Gators2014

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Reply with quote  #85 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LSUsoftballfan
I think there is literally zero chance Tennessee is left out of top 8. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see them at 6 or 7. As noted above, their resume has a ton of top 25 wins and almost no questionable losses. And no way they can possibly be seeded behind Florida State, again due to the numbers posted above.


I'm fine with a flip. Makes more sense.

I just didn't feel like dealing with the SEC bias pitchforks. 
sMurph

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Posts: 545
Reply with quote  #86 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU
RPI wizards: What's your analysis on how the final RPI 16 will shake out? Will the committee have the final RPI for their work tomorrow?



Yes, they will get what's called the "Selections" RPI Nitty Gritty and Team Sheets some time late tonight or very early tomorrow morning. 
sMurph

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Posts: 545
Reply with quote  #87 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RahOKU
RPI wizards: What's your analysis on how the final RPI 16 will shake out? Will the committee have the final RPI for their work tomorrow?




I'm not an RPI wizard, but my estimation based on adding this week's results is that the RPI ranks will be:

1. Oreg
2. UCLA
3. Florida
4. OU

The above is a 99.99% certainty

5-6 Washington and Arizona St
7. FSU
8-9 Tenn and SC
10 LSU
11 UGA
12-14 Tex A&M, Ariz, Ala
15 Kentucky 
16-18 Baylor, Ark, Aub
3leftturns

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Posts: 16,033
Reply with quote  #88 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph
Think about this. If you are Auburn or Arkansas or Kentucky, sure you would like to host a Regional at your home field. But if you win it, you have very, very, very slim chance to advance to the WCWS in a SR on the road at Oregon or UCLA or Florida or Okla.

But the one that does not get to host is probably gonna be sent to the FSU Regional. IMO -those teams have a better chance to pull off a regional win at FSU and SR win at Tennessee than they do to win a SR at Oregon/UCLA/FLA/OU.  Jus sayin


I am guessing that IF those teams had a vote, especially Kentucky, they would vote that way
smcouvillion

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Posts: 441
Reply with quote  #89 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph




I'm not an RPI wizard, but my estimation based on adding this week's results is that the RPI ranks will be:

1. Oreg
2. UCLA
3. Florida
4. OU

The above is a 99.99% certainty

5-6 Washington and Arizona St
7. FSU
8-9 Tenn and SC
10 LSU
11 UGA
12-14 Tex A&M, Ariz, Ala
15 Kentucky 
16-18 Baylor, Ark, Aub


I think Arkansas locked up the 15 seed. Kentucky is either 16 or not ranked, same with Auburn. One of them will be 16, the other will not be ranked. Arkansas had a much better run in the SEC tournament, making it to the semifinals, Kentucky and Auburn were eliminated in the first round, not to mention that Arkansas eliminated Kentucky.
hartfootball

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Posts: 317
Reply with quote  #90 
If committee considers everything when Brittany Gray is out not just last weekend and this sec tournament game, uga is top 8 end of story!!! I know I keep posting about Georgia but that’s my team and I really want others to see things that maybe they don’t. Again, as mentioned in one of my previous posts, many of you don’t realize how long gray has been out this season. Majority of ugas sec series (5) and they won 4/5 series. They have a very good resume despite the loss of gray.
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