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midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #91 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hartfootball
If committee considers everything when Brittany Gray is out not just last weekend and this sec tournament game, uga is top 8 end of story!!! I know I keep posting about Georgia but that’s my team and I really want others to see things that maybe they don’t. Again, as mentioned in one of my previous posts, many of you don’t realize how long gray has been out this season. Majority of ugas sec series (5) and they won 4/5 series. They have a very good resume despite the loss of gray.


It is hard to ignore the fact that Georgia beat Tennessee 9-1 and 8-0, IN KNOXVILLE, and Gray did NOT throw a single pitch in either of those games.  
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #92 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hartfootball
If committee considers everything when Brittany Gray is out not just last weekend and this sec tournament game, uga is top 8 end of story!!! I know I keep posting about Georgia but that’s my team and I really want others to see things that maybe they don’t. Again, as mentioned in one of my previous posts, many of you don’t realize how long gray has been out this season. Majority of ugas sec series (5) and they won 4/5 series. They have a very good resume despite the loss of gray.


They will factor it in, but they factor in end of season play more than pre to mid season play. They wouldn't want to seed a team in the top 8 that has gone 13-9 in their last 22 games, this just means they have a higher chance of getting beating in their own regional.
hartfootball

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Reply with quote  #93 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


It is hard to ignore the fact that Georgia beat Tennessee 9-1 and 8-0, IN KNOXVILLE, and Gray did NOT throw a single pitch in either of those games.  
it’s me and you bud haha against an army!
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #94 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hartfootball
it’s me and you bud haha against an army!


Lol.  Good luck.  I still don't really think you have a chance as the rpi has fallen and the last week was disappointing, but then again I thought Minnesota was a lock for a top 8 last year so I truly have no clue.  But it bugs me that nobody counts those TN wins when they talk about Georgia's record without Gray.   
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #95 
I think that Georgia is a great team, not top 8 caliber without Gray, but if she hadn't gotten injured definitely a lock for top 4. Their offense just seems to have died down without her in the circle, which is why they haven't been winning games.
hartfootball

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Reply with quote  #96 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


Lol.  Good luck.  I still don't really think you have a chance as the rpi has fallen and the last week was disappointing, but then again I thought Minnesota was a lock for a top 8 last year so I truly have no clue.  But it bugs me that nobody counts those TN wins when they talk about Georgia's record without Gray.   
I agree totally I’d just hate to be the 9 seed and tenn the 8 giving them home field advantage even tho we beat them handily in Knoxville but heck idc we will do it again 😉. But good luck to those gophers I been supporting them and I really like fiser In the circle. Just please don’t come to Athens haha
hartfootball

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Reply with quote  #97 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion
I think that Georgia is a great team, not top 8 caliber without Gray, but if she hadn't gotten injured definitely a lock for top 4. Their offense just seems to have died down without her in the circle, which is why they haven't been winning games.
they’ve died down some, but I don’t know if it’s necessarily the offense that’s died down that causes the losses. It’s the pitching. We would win almost any game we’ve lost lately with gray solely bc 3 runs is enough to win with her.
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #98 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion


They will factor it in, but they factor in end of season play more than pre to mid season play. They wouldn't want to seed a team in the top 8 that has gone 13-9 in their last 22 games, this just means they have a higher chance of getting beating in their own regional.


Tennessee went 15-11 in their last 26 with three of those wins against Memphis, Tennessee State and East Tennessee State.  Their star pitcher has missed a bunch of games lately and has been shelled when she has pitched.  Her last start she threw three innings and walked 8 batters.  I have them out of the top 8.  OBVIOUSLY I could be wrong. 
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #99 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


Tennessee went 15-11 in their last 26 with three of those wins against Memphis, Tennessee State and East Tennessee State.  Their star pitcher has missed a bunch of games lately and has been shelled when she has pitched.  Her last start she threw three innings and walked 8 batters.  I have them out of the top 8.  OBVIOUSLY I could be wrong. 


I agree they will be out of the top 8, but overall they have had a better season than Georgia in terms of out of conference play. I think they will be 9 or 10. FSU will get the 8 seed.
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #100 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hartfootball
they’ve died down some, but I don’t know if it’s necessarily the offense that’s died down that causes the losses. It’s the pitching. We would win almost any game we’ve lost lately with gray solely bc 3 runs is enough to win with her.


Yes, but when Gray was pitching it seems they weren't as tense in the box. They haven't been scoring as much runs lately, may not be because the loss of Gray, though.
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #101 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion


I think Arkansas locked up the 15 seed. Kentucky is either 16 or not ranked, same with Auburn. One of them will be 16, the other will not be ranked. Arkansas had a much better run in the SEC tournament, making it to the semifinals, Kentucky and Auburn were eliminated in the first round, not to mention that Arkansas eliminated Kentucky.



My post above was a guess at the updated RPI (not seeds). It was in response to RahOKU asking about what the updated RPI will look like. I agree, I don't think Kentucky will be seeded and hosting, but they will be 15 in the RPI . 
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #102 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hartfootball
If committee considers everything when Brittany Gray is out not just last weekend and this sec tournament game, uga is top 8 end of story!!! I know I keep posting about Georgia but that’s my team and I really want others to see things that maybe they don’t. Again, as mentioned in one of my previous posts, many of you don’t realize how long gray has been out this season. Majority of ugas sec series (5) and they won 4/5 series. They have a very good resume despite the loss of gray.




I looked back after your earlier post and I basically agree with you. But ... at this point it's not really Gray being out that will keep UGA from being a top 8 seed. UGA was #10 in last week's RPI, and they are gonna be #11 in the updated one. And even if the Committee doesn't move them down because of Gray's injury, they are unlikely to move them up, and certainly not up 3 slots.  
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #103 

I updated my projection of the 1 thru 16 seeds to include a guess as to the 2 seed assigned to each regional. I tried to change up some of the same ole samo assignments (like Louisiana to LSU and Minn to Wash). I hate when they send teams to the same regional year after year. 


    Host                              2-Seed

1. Oregon                        Northwestern
2. UCLA                          Long Beach State
3. Florida                        California
4. Oklahoma                   Wichita State
5. Arizona St                   Hofstra
6. Washington                 Missouri
7. South Carolina             James Madison
8. Tennessee                   Ohio State

9. Florida St                    Mississippi State
10. LSU                          Michigan
11. Georgia                     Minnesota
12. Arizona                     Kentucky
13. Alabama                   Louisiana
14. Texas A&M               Texas State
15. Arkansas                  Oklahoma St
16. Auburn                     Baylor
RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #104 
I've been paying attention to the discussion all season about RPI and rankings and became convinced by you all that the tournament seedings tonight will largely reward a team's resume (vs. ranking the teams according to how good they are). I don't know if that's the way it should be, but I accept it as reality.

At the same time, regardless of the seedings, the reality is that certain teams have the mojo coming into post season. My Sooners are 41-1 since Feb. 24, losing only to a spectacularly sound Oregon team in Eugene. That's something. I think only a few teams actually believe they can win the tournament, and that really matters now. If you don't have that confidence, it'll show.

That said, my guess for the top 16:

1. Oregon
2. Florida
3. Oklahoma
4. UCLA
5. Arizona St
6. Washington
7. Florida St
8. South Carolina
9. Tennessee
10. Georgia
11. LSU
12. Alabama
13. Arkansas
14. Arizona
15. Texas A&M
16. Auburn

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3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #105 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph

I tried to change up some of the same ole samo assignments (like Louisiana to LSU and Minn to Wash).
Good luck with that.

If Kentucky is hosting, Michigan and Notre Dame will be there, ULL will be at LSU....
Tigers334

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Reply with quote  #106 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph
Think about this. If you are Auburn or Arkansas or Kentucky, sure you would like to host a Regional at your home field. But if you win it, you have very, very, very slim chance to advance to the WCWS in a SR on the road at Oregon or UCLA or Florida or Okla.

But the one that does not get to host is probably gonna be sent to the FSU Regional. IMO -those teams have a better chance to pull off a regional win at FSU and SR win at Tennessee than they do to win a SR at Oregon/UCLA/FLA/OU.  Jus sayin




Auburn has been absolutely horrific away from home. If we are even going to make it to Supers, the best path is through Jane B. The way our pitchers performed towards the end of the season, I’m not sure we’d even win a regional.
DunninLA

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Posts: 5,145
Reply with quote  #107 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion


They will factor it in, but they factor in end of season play more than pre to mid season play. They wouldn't want to seed a team in the top 8 that has gone 13-9 in their last 22 games, this just means they have a higher chance of getting beating in their own regional.
 I think UCLA holds the record for that, having lost in their own Regional in 2007 and 2012.

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LSUsoftballfan

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Posts: 560
Reply with quote  #108 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Good luck with that.

If Kentucky is hosting, Michigan and Notre Dame will be there, ULL will be at LSU....


I think the committee has enough teams in the Louisiana/Texas area that they could change it up a little and do so without compromising the bracket.

ULL and McNeese could go to A&M and Houston and/or Texas State and/or Texas could come to LSU
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #109 
I hope you are right
HenryLouisAaron

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Reply with quote  #110 
<< Who is #2 and #3 between Florida and UCLA?

I put Florida #2 in my projection above, but I'm not so sure about that. It is really remarkable that UCLA only lost 4 games all season playing 24 Pac12 games plus LSU, Mizzou, Minn, Ok St, etc. 


UCLA lost 4 games. Florida lost 8 games
Both teams had losses to top 10 teams. UCLA had 3 such losses, UF had 4
But UCLA only lost 1 other game period - Stanford. Florida lost 4 other games -Alabama, Louisiana, UCF, FIU. >> (sMurph)


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


After writing this post above, sMurph switched UCLA to his #2 seed and Florida to his #3 seed.
Here is some more information for you to consider, Murph...


I am changing your title to...   Who is #2, #3 and #4 between Oklahoma, UCLA and Florida?

Interestingly... all three teams finished with exactly 50 wins.
Oklahoma has lost 3 games.
UCLA has lost 4 games
Florida has lost 8 games.

All but one of Oklahoma's losses were to top level teams:  #1 Oregon (0-5),  #12 Arizona (0-2).
Oklahoma had ONE bad loss to a team in the 51-100 category:  #95 Boston University (3-4).
Btw... Boston U. finished the regular season with a 39-18 record.

All but one of UCLA's losses were to top level teams:  #1 Oregon (5-7) and (0-3),  #7 Arizona State (0-3)
UCLA had ONE bad loss to a team in the 101-150 category:  #106 Stanford (1-4).
Btw... Stanford finished the regular season with a 24-31 record.

Florida had 5 losses to top level teams:  #6 Florida State (1-4),  #9 LSU (0-3),  #10 Georgia (4-5) and (1-11),  #15 Alabama (2-3).
Florida had one other loss to a good team:  #21 Louisiana (3-4).
But Florida had TWO bad losses to teams in the 51-100 RPI category:  #56 FIU (0-5),  #61 UCF (0-1).
Btw... FIU finished the regular season with a 30-25 record... and UCF finished with a 34-22 record.
Wichita_Mustangs

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Reply with quote  #111 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LSUsoftballfan


I think the committee has enough teams in the Louisiana/Texas area that they could change it up a little and do so without compromising the bracket.

ULL and McNeese could go to A&M and Houston and/or Texas State and/or Texas could come to LSU



No thank you. I am ok with letting Texas St. Stay closer to home. Well coached team with a monster of ace pitcher.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #112 

Oklahoma needs to be 4 because, compared with UCLA and UF, they played hardly anyone on the top end. But they are a slam dunk 4. IMO

UCLA vs. Top 10: 7-3

Florida vs. Top 10: 5-4

Oklahoma vs. Top 10: 1-1

Why Top 10? Because that is the peer group when you are discussing a top 4 slot

But, if you are interested:
Vs. T9
UCLA: 7-3; UF: 4-2; Oklahoma: 1-1
Vs. T8
UCLA: 6-3; UF: 2-1; Oklahoma: 1-1
Vs. T7
UCLA: 6-3; UF: 1-1; Oklahoma: 1-1
Vs. T6
UCLA: 4-2; UF: 1-1; Oklahoma: 0-1
Vs. T5
UCLA: 4-2; UF: 0-0; Oklahoma: 0-1


Grindz

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Reply with quote  #113 
Do not want Texas State coming to LSU, they are legit 
LSUsoftballfan

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Reply with quote  #114 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wichita_Mustangs
No thank you. I am ok with letting Texas St. Stay closer to home. Well coached team with a monster of ace pitcher.


Point well taken.  The good news on that is that San Marcos to Baton Rouge is 430 miles, which is out of busing range. Austin is also 430 miles away, so Texas couldn't bus to BR either.

They both could bus to Texas A&M or Baylor.

Texas St. and Texas both went to A&M last year, along with the Houston SWAC school.  Baylor got the out of region crew: James Madison, Kent State, and Oregon State.

This is where it would come in handy for Baylor to host a regional again this year. NCAA could switch it up and Baylor could get Texas State and the Houston SWAC school and Texas A&M could get 3 teams from out of region.  But I am not sure if Baylor hosts....

I think Houston comes to BR as the 2 seed. Random hunch.
HenryLouisAaron

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Reply with quote  #115 

<< Oklahoma needs to be 4 because, compared with UCLA and UF, they played hardly anyone on the top end. But they are a slam dunk 4. IMO
UCLA vs. Top 10: 7-3
Florida vs. Top 10: 5-4
Oklahoma vs. Top 10: 1-1  >> (3LT)


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Actually...   Oklahoma will be  3-1  vs. the top ten.

South Carolina will surely be in the top ten RPI when the new RPI is given to the committee today.

And 3-1  (.750)  is just a tad better than .700...   and quite a bit better than the .556 that Florida could muster.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Btw... my response to sMurph  was aimed specifically at the arguments he was making in his post comparing UCLA & Florida.

3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #116 
Yeah, except you couldn't leave it be and had to Oklahomize that post, too

Thus, my post
HenryLouisAaron

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Reply with quote  #117 
No comment... on how Oklahoma's 3-1 record vs. the top ten (.750 winning percentage) changes your post....?
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #118 
How do you think Oklahoma at 3-1 there has them jump UCLA and their 7-3?
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #119 
Quote:
Originally Posted by HenryLouisAaron

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Btw... my response to sMurph  was aimed specifically at the arguments he was making in his post comparing UCLA & Florida.




I had actually already given detailed consideration to my projected seeding for the top 4 teams. In my opinion it is very highly likely that Oregon will be seeded #1 and OU #4. 

So for me, the close call was 2 and 3. The reason I am confident OU will be seeded 4 has nothing to do with my opinion of the 4 teams. My main reason is that over the years when I have heard the Committee or the Chair explain why Team A was seeded ahead of Team B, the thing they emphasize BY FAR more than any other is the number of wins vs the top 25. OU has 9. UCLA has 15. UF has 27.

For that reason I expect OU to be seeded 4. It's a guess based on prior observation. Nothing more.  I personally expect OU or Oregon to win the title. But I believe the Committee will seed OU #4. 
HenryLouisAaron

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Reply with quote  #120 
<< So for me, the close call was 2 and 3. The reason I am confident OU will be seeded 4 has nothing to do with my opinion of the 4 teams. My main reason is that over the years when I have heard the Committee or the Chair explain why Team A was seeded ahead of Team B, the thing they emphasize BY FAR more than any other is the number of wins vs the top 25. OU has 9. UCLA has 15. UF has 27. >> (sMurph)


That is quite interesting.
So it seems that the information about the UCLA losses and Florida losses (that you referenced in your post) led you to switch UCLA to #2 and Florida to #3.

But that is completely contradicted by the "number of wins vs. the top 25" information (which you say "they emphasize BY FAR more than any other")... 
where Florida is the clear "winner" 27  to  15.
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