Ultimate College Softball
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment   Page 2 of 4      Prev   1   2   3   4   Next
cjs4585

Registered:
Posts: 673
Reply with quote  #31 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
It is part of the selection criteria (losing a key player and it showing up in results).... they just lost to Mercer.

They will host a regional, but they are done as a Top 8, barring a huge run in CoMo


I'm not sure if they are done, but the committee definitely takes injury and late results vs earlier results into account. This happened to WA in 2016. They were top 8 rpi all year and usually top 6 and got an 11 seed. That was primarily due to their late performance without Alvelo and her ankle injury.
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 15,898
Reply with quote  #32 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


Exactly.  They have one more top 10 win than Iowa.  
Well, to the committee, two is a LOT more than one
hartfootball

Registered:
Posts: 317
Reply with quote  #33 
Quote:
Originally Posted by UGASBFan


This. I mean it doesn't look great for us, that's for sure, but we aren't just going to lay down because we lost our ace. 
people are going crazy about our loss to Mercer but doesnt Florida have two bad losses? And I don’t think u can even call Mercer a bad loss because I am willing to say that they are about equal with kennessaw state for the 2nd best team in GA. People are so one sided.
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 15,898
Reply with quote  #34 
It isn't the loss to Mercer in a vacuum...it is the loss after the loss of Gray
UGASBFan

Registered:
Posts: 2,259
Reply with quote  #35 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
It isn't the loss to Mercer in a vacuum...it is the loss after the loss of Gray


Serious question here (because I don't know) but are they only looking closely at the losses that happened AFTER the announcement of GA losing Gray? Or the results since her last start (the GT game)?
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 15,898
Reply with quote  #36 
What cjs said about UW in 2016 is reality. 

But if Georgia gets 9 wins the rest of the season, maybe they hold on
hartfootball

Registered:
Posts: 317
Reply with quote  #37 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
What cjs said about UW in 2016 is reality. 

But if Georgia gets 9 wins the rest of the season, maybe they hold on
you’re talking about holding on to a top 8 seed right?
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 15,898
Reply with quote  #38 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hartfootball
you’re talking about holding on to a top 8 seed right?
Yes.

They are a top 16, no matter what -- I mean, barring something titanic.... like maybe a four-win finish?
HomerCoach

Registered:
Posts: 136
Reply with quote  #39 
Michigan will host after winning the B1G regular season and tournament.
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 15,898
Reply with quote  #40 
Just looked... they are 28 rpi

No way
HomerCoach

Registered:
Posts: 136
Reply with quote  #41 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Just looked... they are 28 rpi

No way


We'll see.

Softballfan12

Registered:
Posts: 75
Reply with quote  #42 
Quote:
Originally Posted by HomerCoach
Michigan will host after winning the B1G regular season and tournament.


I think so too
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 15,898
Reply with quote  #43 
They have 11 regular-season games left, against average rpi of 97

Nope
smcouvillion

Registered:
Posts: 441
Reply with quote  #44 
  1. Washington
  2. Oregon
  3. UCLA
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Georgia
  6. Arizona State
  7. Florida
  8. Florida State
  9. Tennessee
  10. Texas A&M
  11. South Carolina
  12. Arizona
  13. LSU
  14. Auburn
  15. Arkansas
  16. Oregon State

I think after this Series against Alabama, Arkansas is a sure host, the remainder includes the extremely great power hitting LSU Tigers, the might Ole Miss Rebels, and the amazing Auburn tigers (who just got 2 game swept against the mighty Mizzou tigers.)

If Auburn, LSU, Oregon State are not hosts my picks would go to Baylor, Long Beach State, and possibly Alabama.

And yes I remember saying Oklahoma will not get top 4 pick, but after Georgia's loss of their ace, Arizona State losing 2 of 3 from Oregon, and Florida losing to florida state, I think it has opened the door for them.

MOJOERASER

Registered:
Posts: 358
Reply with quote  #45 
OU will either be number 1 or 2 .....
smcouvillion

Registered:
Posts: 441
Reply with quote  #46 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MOJOERASER
OU will either be number 1 or 2 .....


I don't believe so, either 3-5. Their conference schedule isn't great which is basically half of their schedule, the only top 25 rpi teams they played in the rest of the schedule was ASU, Arizona, South Carolina, Oregon, and Oregon State. Plus they lost to boston and arizona. Oregon and OSU are yet to come.
RPI_Guy

Registered:
Posts: 46
Reply with quote  #47 
Quote:
Originally Posted by HomerCoach


We'll see.



We will see, all of us will see come May 13.

However, those of us that know the inner workings of RPI and the selection committee know that the future is very bleak for the Michigan Wolverines and any Big 10 team for hosting. If the 30-50 range in RPI was not so full of teams losing games right now, the Nebraska's (26 RPI) Ohio State's (27 RPI), Michigan's (28 RPI), and Minnesota's (31 RPI) of the world would be plummeting down the RPI Rankings even as they win games and sweep series.

Michigan has nearly no mathematical chance to finish in the Top 25 in RPI even if they win every game from now until May 13th. I wouldn't say that there is no shot the selection committee would choose a 25 RPI Michigan team, that at that point would have 2 maybe 3 Top 25 wins to host, because anything is possible, but as you say "We'll see."
MOJOERASER

Registered:
Posts: 358
Reply with quote  #48 
Rpi to me needs to be adjusted to penalize all loses regardless of their rank. If it’s a lower ranked team you need to penalize more obviously .

Also committee will take that OU loss to Boston as a team that was ill. Losses do matter but so do deficits. And OU is literally 3 runs from being undefeated. It’s not like OU didn’t challenge any good teams ooc. I would say their ooc chedule is right up there with the top 10 and probably a higher win percentage also.
southpaw

Registered:
Posts: 137
Reply with quote  #49 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MOJOERASER
Rpi to me needs to be adjusted to penalize all loses regardless of their rank. If it’s a lower ranked team you need to penalize more obviously . Also committee will take that OU loss to Boston as a team that was ill. Losses do matter but so do deficits. And OU is literally 3 runs from being undefeated. It’s not like OU didn’t challenge any good teams ooc. I would say their ooc chedule is right up there with the top 10 and probably a higher win percentage also.


Washington is 4 runs from being undefeated, they have 8 Top 25 wins to Oklahoma's 6, and they have 0 losses blamed on "Being Ill", so they should definitely be higher in your new RPI than Oklahoma.
MOJOERASER

Registered:
Posts: 358
Reply with quote  #50 
Quote:
Originally Posted by southpaw


Washington is 4 runs from being undefeated, they have 8 Top 25 wins to Oklahoma's 6, and they have 0 losses blamed on "Being Ill", so they should definitely be higher in your new RPI than Oklahoma.


I never said Washington shouldn’t be ranked higher. We just know what’s going to happen when the games are can’t lose. I said OU willl be number 1 or 2 months ago and everyone on this board said our rpi was going to be 8-14 ...I ever saw a post of someone trying o compare OUs schedule to the Gophers from last year.
smcouvillion

Registered:
Posts: 441
Reply with quote  #51 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MOJOERASER
Rpi to me needs to be adjusted to penalize all loses regardless of their rank. If it’s a lower ranked team you need to penalize more obviously . Also committee will take that OU loss to Boston as a team that was ill. Losses do matter but so do deficits. And OU is literally 3 runs from being undefeated. It’s not like OU didn’t challenge any good teams ooc. I would say their ooc chedule is right up there with the top 10 and probably a higher win percentage also.


The committee is not going to take your loss to Boston as a team that was ill... they do not care that a team is ill -- a LOSS is a LOSS, you LOST the game. they lost the game, the committee is going to take this loss seriously. Sure OU is a great team, but not a top 4 team based on the schedule they play. If OU Wants to be top 4, then play a top 4 schedule.
Sec_fan91

Registered:
Posts: 2,908
Reply with quote  #52 
SC should be ok renaming as a regional host. We have Mizzou, Miss State, and Kentucky left in conference play. Two of those are at home.

I was going to say I thought A&M May have a shot at a super host over Tennessee, but looking at their remaining schedules, I don’t think so.

I think Georgia is going to slide after these next few weeks. Here are my predictions:

1. Washington
2. Oregon
3. Oklahoma
4. UCLA
5. Florida
6. Arizona State
7. Florida State
8. Tennessee
9. Georgia
10. Texas A&M
11. South Carolina
12. Arizona
13. Auburn
14. LSU
15. Arkansas
16. Alabama
LCITSH

Registered:
Posts: 2,762
Reply with quote  #53 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion


I don't believe so, either 3-5. Their conference schedule isn't great which is basically half of their schedule, the only top 25 rpi teams they played in the rest of the schedule was ASU, Arizona, South Carolina, Oregon, and Oregon State. Plus they lost to boston and arizona. Oregon and OSU are yet to come.


Their conference schedule is 18 games plus the conference tournament, which is closer to a third than a half. They are on pace to be the undefeated champion of the #3 rated conference (according to rpi), they have 11 regular season games left all against teams with winning records, 1 top 10 team, 2 top 20 and 6 top 35 (at the moment). Yes, there are a lot of games left to play, not just theirs, but other teams as well, but they are certainly in a prime position to be either the #1 or #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.

__________________
Terrell S. Hebert
Louisiana USSSA Church Coordinator
LSUsoftballfan

Registered:
Posts: 560
Reply with quote  #54 
Quote:
Originally Posted by leip822
It’s looking like Bama at this point


Alabama has Tennessee, at Georgia, and Texas A&M left.  That looks very rough.  If they go 5-4 through that, then they might be ok.

Arkansas has its chance right in front of it.  They play at LSU and at Auburn while hosting Ole Miss.  If they take care of business at home vs. Ole Miss and win the series at Auburn and LSU, then I would put them in the top 16.
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 15,898
Reply with quote  #55 
Agree with LSU
MOJOERASER

Registered:
Posts: 358
Reply with quote  #56 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChinMusic


You seriously think there are 4 (or more) teams better than OU?



Rpi says it is so yes ..... rpi is never wrong. That’s the best thing about the post season. Rpi only puts you in a good starting point. Then the REAL teams come out and play..... and we know who those teams usually are. Again a 16 loss team is 5 spots away from a 2 loss team. Something isn’t right
cjs4585

Registered:
Posts: 673
Reply with quote  #57 
Here's my take if I were the committee picking today:

#1 OR(+3) #16 AUB(-)
#2 WA(-1) #15 OSU(N)
#3 UCLA(-) #14 AR(+1)
#4 FL(+2) #13 AZ(-3)
#5 OK(-) #12 LSU(+1)
#6 TN(+4) #11 TAM(+1)
#7 ASU(-) #10 SC(-2)
#8 GA(-6) #9 FSU(+1)

Numbers in parens are movement from last week. In this week OSU, out Baylor.

Softballjunkie223

Registered:
Posts: 1,056
Reply with quote  #58 
Just for fun
Oregon
Washington
Ucla
Florida
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Asu
Florida state
HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 1,897
Reply with quote  #59 
<< Don't pay attention to the W-L....RPI accounts for THAT.
The T10 wins are like rocket fuel for consideration, IMO >> (3LT)

<< Oregon State is 2-8 vs top 10 and 3-14 vs top 25 >> (sMurph)

<< Exactly.  They have one more top 10 win than Iowa. >> (midwestfp)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It is kind of amazing how EIGHT top ten LOSSES... 
and FOURTEEN top 25 LOSSES... 
can fuel a team's RPI.

THREE wins out of SEVENTEEN vs. the top 25...???

How does that translate...?
HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 1,897
Reply with quote  #60 
<< And yes I remember saying Oklahoma will not get top 4 pick >> (smcouvillion)


I am so glad I wrapped up that 1000 to 1 bet with you back then... 
As I remember it... I believe you used the word "definitely".

; )
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.