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sMurph

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Reply with quote  #1 
UGA got really bad news this week with the loss of their ace. And it was a pretty awful week on the field for many teams ranked 9 thru 18 in the RPI. 

-South Carolina got swept by Florida
-Arizona 0-2 vs UCLA, likely to get swept
-LSU swept by Tennessee
-Auburn swept 2 games by previously last place Missouri
-Baylor lost to McNeese St then got swept by Okla St
-Alabama lost 2 of 3 at Arkansas
-Long Beach State lost 2 of 3 to Fullerton

With that as background, here is an early projection of NCAA hosts.



1. Washington     16. Alabama
2. Oklahoma       15. Arkansas
3. Oregon           14. Auburn
4. UCLA              13. LSU
5. Florida            12. Arizona
6. Arizona St       11. Texas A&M
7. Georgia           10. South Carolina
8. Florida St          9. Tennessee

3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #2 

Long Beach has less than zero shot.

And, I believe that at least one of those three, Auburn, Bama and LSU will be on the road

I'll put one up after the Arizona-UCLA game

leip822

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Reply with quote  #3 
It’s looking like Bama at this point
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leip822

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Reply with quote  #4 
Sub in Arkansas or Oregon state for them, or both, maybe
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sMurph

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Reply with quote  #5 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

Long Beach has less than zero shot.

And, I believe that at least one of those three, Auburn, Bama and LSU will be on the road

I'll put one up after the Arizona-UCLA game




Well maybe you could suggest what 2 teams would replace those 2. Pickins are slim
Grindz

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Reply with quote  #6 
If LSU loses its last couple series (A&M and Florida) I don't think we host.
We are 7-7 as of now, luckily not 7-8 in conference play.  

LSU will not host if we have a losing SEC record and place in the middle/bottom of the conference. We would have to travel.

Auburn could host

Don;t see Bama hosting 
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #7 
I think that the SEC will have two top 8s, UF and Tennessee.

I can't see FSU, with two losses to Pitt and BC, hanging on to a Top 8 necessarily....

But, if Georgia falls out, maybe the Noles can hang on, if they clean this up
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #8 
Quote:
Originally Posted by leip822
Sub in Arkansas or Oregon state for them, or both, maybe



Why Oregon State?  Because they beat Stanford this weekend?  LOL  They have 2 games coming up vs OU, then 3 at Arizona, then 3 vs Washington.

Arkansas is a maybe in place of either Auburn, Ala, or LSU
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph



Well maybe you could suggest what 2 teams would replace those 2. Pickins are slim


Long Beach just lost a series  to Fullerton.

Oregon State or Arkansas better guesses.

A lot of softball to be played, but not enough for LBSU to make that claim anymore.

They had to sweep Fullerton for THAT sort of consideration
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #10 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
I think that the SEC will have two top 8s, UF and Tennessee.

I can't see FSU, with two losses to Pitt and BC, hanging on to a Top 8 necessarily....

But, if Georgia falls out, maybe the Noles can hang on, if they clean this up




No reason for me to think UGA will fall out based on their outstanding resume' as opposed to any team that might be competing with them for a top 8, and their remaining schedule is pretty manageable. 
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #11 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph



Why Oregon State?  Because they beat Stanford this weekend?  LOL  They have 2 games coming up vs OU, then 3 at Arizona, then 3 vs Washington.

Arkansas is a maybe in place of either Auburn, Ala, or LSU

Oregon State has two Top-10 wins. And, have opportunities for more.

They have a good shot
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns


Long Beach just lost a series  to Fullerton.

Oregon State or Arkansas better guesses.

A lot of softball to be played, but not enough for LBSU to make that claim anymore.

They had to sweep Fullerton for THAT sort of consideration



You're right about Long Beach St. Didn't check their weekend results.  
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #13 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph




No reason for me to think UGA will fall out based on their outstanding resume' as opposed to any team that might be competing with them for a top 8, and their remaining schedule is pretty manageable. 
It is part of the selection criteria (losing a key player and it showing up in results).... they just lost to Mercer.

They will host a regional, but they are done as a Top 8, barring a huge run in CoMo
leip822

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Reply with quote  #14 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph



Why Oregon State?  Because they beat Stanford this weekend?  LOL  They have 2 games coming up vs OU, then 3 at Arizona, then 3 vs Washington.

Arkansas is a maybe in place of either Auburn, Ala, or LSU

Who would you put in above them? Oregon state has played an extremely hard schedule and is managing it well so far.

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MOJOERASER

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Reply with quote  #15 
Wait what all you said OU was a number 7 seed lol
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #16 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

Long Beach has less than zero shot.

And, I believe that at least one of those three, Auburn, Bama and LSU will be on the road

I'll put one up after the Arizona-UCLA game




I edited to add Long Beach State's series loss to Fullerton and replaced them with Arkansas
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #17 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MOJOERASER
Wait what all you said OU was a number 7 seed lol



Who said that?  Not me
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #18 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MOJOERASER
Wait what all you said OU was a number 7 seed lol

Even with a bad loss... everyone but UW and Oregon in top 8 consideration has a bad loss at this point...Oklahoma will be a top 8 slam dunk, and a top-2 seed if they sweep three in Oregon.

sMurph

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Reply with quote  #19 
Quote:
Originally Posted by leip822
Who would you put in above them? Oregon state has played an extremely hard schedule and is managing it well so far.




They are literally going to barely finish the season above .500.  I agree that is mostly due to a very difficult schedule
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #20 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

Even with a bad loss... we'll everyone but UW and Oregon has a bad loss at this point...Oklahoma will be a top 8 slam dunk, and a top-2 seed if they sweep three in Oregon.




There's no reason to think they will sweep Oregon IMO
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #21 
In Oregon -- not at Oregon.

1 at Ducks
2 at Beavers

A sweep would be a helluva achievement.

Top 2 if they pull that off and don't stub their toes otherwise
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #22 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grindz
If LSU loses its last couple series (A&M and Florida) I don't think we host.
We are 7-7 as of now, luckily not 7-8 in conference play.  

LSU will not host if we have a losing SEC record and place in the middle/bottom of the conference. We would have to travel.

Auburn could host

Don;t see Bama hosting 



Name the 2 or 3 teams that will replace them. 
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #23 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph




They are literally going to barely finish the season above .500.  I agree that is mostly due to a very difficult schedule
Don't pay attention to the W-L....RPI accounts for THAT.

The T10 wins are like rocket fuel for consideration, IMO
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #24 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
In Oregon -- not at Oregon.

1 at Ducks
2 at Beavers

A sweep would be a helluva achievement.

Top 2 if they pull that off and don't stub their toes otherwise



Isn't the "in Oregon" thing the same as the long standing argument that the WCWS is "in Oklahoma" so an OU advantage. It would be a helluva achievement for either team to sweep. I would predict a 2-1 series win for Oregon. Their record against that schedule (UCLA, Ariz, UGA, FSU, LSU) is very impressive.
Grindz

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Reply with quote  #25 
If Arkansas continues to roll they could be in the mix too

I don't see Auburn Bama and LSU all hosting, one or two will travel 

I don't see LBSU hosting. It'll come down to how everyone finishes out.

If LSU can win 2 of the last 3 series they are in, if they lose two or all three I probably see them traveling. 

hesitant to say Oregon State could fall in the mix 
 
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #26 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Don't pay attention to the W-L....RPI accounts for THAT.

The T10 wins are like rocket fuel for consideration, IMO



Oregon State is 2-8 vs top 10 and 3-14 vs top 25
sMurph

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Reply with quote  #27 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
It is part of the selection criteria (losing a key player and it showing up in results).... they just lost to Mercer.

They will host a regional, but they are done as a Top 8, barring a huge run in CoMo



UGA has Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss remaining. They are not done for a top 8 by a long shot. 
UGASBFan

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Reply with quote  #28 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph



UGA has Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss remaining. They are not done for a top 8 by a long shot. 


This. I mean it doesn't look great for us, that's for sure, but we aren't just going to lay down because we lost our ace. 
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #29 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph



Oregon State is 2-8 vs top 10 and 3-14 vs top 25


Exactly.  They have one more top 10 win than Iowa.  
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #30 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph



Isn't the "in Oregon" thing the same as the long standing argument that the WCWS is "in Oklahoma" so an OU advantage. It would be a helluva achievement for either team to sweep. I would predict a 2-1 series win for Oregon. Their record against that schedule (UCLA, Ariz, UGA, FSU, LSU) is very impressive.
In Oregon...is within the state.

You don't say the Boston Red Sox are playing IN the New York Yankees, do ya?
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