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Dewey

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Reply with quote  #1 
The Dems will defend 10 seats and the Republicans will defend 24.

From the article:
Dems - They say Reid is vulnerable if Governor Sandoval runs but insiders think he won't.  In Colorado, Bennett is vulnerable but they say even the best run campaign in 2014, Gardner, got less than 50%.  Will Dems hold both?  Other eight Dem more safe according to Sabato.  If Dems hold, they need to pick up four, assuming Democrat wins President.

Repubs - Kirk in Illinois, Johnson in Wisconsin, and Toomey in Pennsylvania are top targets and very vulnerable.  Next targets are Rubio in Florida, (says he won't run for both Pres and Sen), Ayotte in New Hampshire, Burr in NC, and Portman in Ohio.  They say NH is slowly becoming a blue state and the Gov is considering a run.  Ohio could turn into a huge race between Stickland and Portman.  NC could find a competitive race too.

Does McCain in AZ retire or lose in a primary?  If not, he wins.  Does Murkowski in AK return to primary or run as Independent?  Does Coats lose a primary in Indiana making this seat vulnerable?  Blunt in MO seems safe from a primary.  If all four run and survive primary, they're probably safe.

If Isakson in GA and Grassley in IA both run as they say, these seats likely safe.  If law allows Paul of KY to run for both President and Senate, this seat likely safe. 

Sabato says running up the score in 2014 has made the Republican defense much easier.  If only a seven seat gain had occurred, Dems would have only had to hold their safe seats in order to regain majority.  Now they are forced to win four and maybe five if Reid falters.

Edit:  They say it's impossible but Michelle for Ill Senate in 2016?
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #2 
Seven races to watch.
CoachB25

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Reply with quote  #3 
Keep in mind that while Chicago and a couple of metro areas are highly Democrat, the heartland of the state is Republican.  Rauner won over Quinn and that was thought to be an upset.  However, the heartland showed up in huge numbers to vote. 
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #4 
Obama won 58% of the Illinois vote in 2012.  Sen. Kirk, in a 2010 landslide year for Republicans, came out with a 48-46% squeaker.  It was a race between two flawed candidates

Giannoulias faced attacks over his family's failed bank, which gave loans to two men involved in organized crime. Meanwhile, Kirk was forced to apologize after the disclosure that he had exaggerated his military accomplishments.

Even though he won, Kirk has some work to do gaining the trust of Illinois voters. Exit polls found that more than a third of voters considered neither he nor Giannoulias to be honest and trustworthy.
CoachB25

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Reply with quote  #5 
Dewey, why the 2012 stats when this latest election saw a Republican get elected to Governor?  Things have drastically changed in this state. 
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #6 
CoachB - I believe Sabato is right to list Sen. Kirk as one of the vulnerable seats.  I don't know the State of Illinois but I did see a tax on millionaires and a minimum wage law passed.  Sen. Durbin was re-elected and the Governor race was close until the end.  Not sure how to read a change but I suspect this will be a hard fought contest.

Edit:  Rumor has it Duckworth won't challenge Kirk but Gov. Quinn might.
CoachB25

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Reply with quote  #7 
People in this state don't like nor trust Quinn.  He lied to the people about money getting transferred to schools as well as when a tax he had implemented ran its course, he would have the tax rate returned to normal.  Then, he tried his best to keep that tax.  It hurt him in the election.  Also, while the teacher's unions supported Quinn, the membership did not.  Believe me, my school faculty was torn over this as members were asked to work for Quinn and many got upset at that request since Quinn was anything but loyal to teachers. 
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #8 
Go troll another state dewy but leave Texas and Illinois alone, it looks like.  Find another chink in the red wall, like Colorado
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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #9 
CoachB - Sen. Kirk was the only Republican to vote for the Surgeon General against the advice of NRA.  Interesting.  Roll Call says watch more votes coming up.
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #10 
Sounds like Kirk could continue to be a positive in the senate, awesome news.  Good to see that all conservatives don't bow down to NRA.  I'm an NRA member and I personally would love to see politicians use there own judgement and not be swayed by big groups like Sierra Club and the NRA.  Too much rigidity, means turning off voters correct?  Well who would want to be too rigid and turn off voters?  Look what happens when Cruz does it.  Thought this was a dem thread but dewy is hijacking his own thread and talking about Republicans??
__________________
"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
CoachB25

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Reply with quote  #11 
Dewey, I understand your position.  Maybe a Dem will win.  However, I'd advise you not to go to the local barber shop, deli or country store in these parts.  You wouldn't like what you would hear.  Are there enough of these voters to make a difference when weighted against Crook County?  In this last election, there were.  Quinn only won Crook County. 
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachB25
However, I'd advise you not to go to the local barber shop, deli or country store in these parts.  You wouldn't like what you would hear. 


CoachB - As long as they can be respectful to those who think differently, I'm not a bit worried. I'm always interested in what the other side thinks.  Can't know what message is failing to get through until we know what the other side thinks.  To this day, many folks think those like me believe SS is a great idea because we somehow want a nanny State.  Little do they know it's largely because we prefer not to care for those, who spend all their money before they're old and unable to work, by using our hard earned money.  I'd like to know what they'd say about that in the barber shop?
mikec

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Reply with quote  #13 
They would say "are you for real?  you do understand, I presume, that SS is not a savings account.  If you are working currently, you are, in fact, paying for everyone else."


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dewey
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachB25
However, I'd advise you not to go to the local barber shop, deli or country store in these parts.  You wouldn't like what you would hear. 


CoachB - As long as they can be respectful to those who think differently, I'm not a bit worried. I'm always interested in what the other side thinks.  Can't know what message is failing to get through until we know what the other side thinks.  To this day, many folks think those like me believe SS is a great idea because we somehow want a nanny State.  Little do they know it's largely because we prefer not to care for those, who spend all their money before they're old and unable to work, by using our hard earned money.  I'd like to know what they'd say about that in the barber shop?
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #14 
mikec - Call it a fund.  I think we have over $2.5 Trillion in the fund, or account, or whatever.  They're paying retired people out with that money and we're paying into the fund in preparation for our day.  No, it's not an account that guarantees our estate money if we don't make it to old age.  Look at it as insurance.  If you pay in and are disabled in the first year, you're covered.  If you make it to retirement, you're covered.  If you die early, you may have missed out if you have no family. 

In my life insurance premiums, I don't look at it as if I'm paying for those who die but I guess in a way I am.  The insurance is simply taking money in and giving it out.  I hope that's more clear.  That's how I'd answer those barbers.
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #15 
He is already fishing for some "hope and change" in 2016. Bwahahahaha!
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YAY!!is GAF
mikec

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Reply with quote  #16 
it's not insurance.  it is a real-time entitlement program, where those working pay for those that aren't.  there is no savings, no accounts, no insurance, etc. 

as the country ages, and there are more payees than payors, the system will go broke w/o either deferring payee age or raising taxes.

it is not insurance at all - it is a cash-based program.  money paid in by today's workers is distributors to today; retirees, disabled folks, an whoever else qualifies.

today's workers may be screwed in 10 years.
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #17 
mikec - I'll respond in another thread.  Like I said, it's good to hear what the other side thinks so a more purposeful exchange can result.
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #18 
There is no fund. It's a bunch of paper IOUs that the government has played a shell game with for years. If you think there is a couple trillion dollars sitting in a vault to be pulled out as needed you are probably gullible enough to vote for Obama....twice.
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#SCOTUS
YAY!!is GAF
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #19 
spazsdad - I moved my response to another thread.
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #20 
Sen. Portman recently said he wouldn't run for President.  I suspect his support for gay marriage will make him highly favored in his re-election bid.

Sen Coasts of Indiana is likely favored too considering former Sen. Bayh insists he's running for nothing.
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #21 
Quote:
Originally Posted by spazsdad
He is already fishing for some "hope and change" in 2016. Bwahahahaha!


Can't say I blame him.  2014 was miserable for obama and the dems, it can only improve[?] for them in 2015.  They have to laugh to keep from crying.  

Their agenda driven administration has unraveled and they are separating at the seams.  We have been left with a race torn, divided nation of narcissists and no one looking out for 'the country'.  Everyone has their own agenda where big special interests get their feet rubbed and their bellies full.  The Washington Way, bell the cat, don't bell the cat, bell the cat but don't bell the cat if it's my earmark that gets denied.

__________________
"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #22 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dewey
I suspect his support for gay marriage will make him highly favored in his re-election bid.

Because that's a majority opinion....NOT.
The only reason there is legal gay marriage is because of the court. Public opinion and voting does not support it.
Legislation from the bench. A hallmark of the liberal agenda.

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#SCOTUS
YAY!!is GAF
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #23 
No, it's because he'll get Democrat votes for his moderate position and Republican votes because they want to hold on to the Senate.
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #24 
Portman changed his positions on gay marriage because his son 'came out' of the closet, not for votes.  Portman was doing just fine in the elections he had previously won, even though he had a long history of voting against gay marriage.  It was overall a non-issue in his elections.  Again, to make it clear to those who would twist facts, he changed his stance for personal reasons vs. strategic reasons for votes as described above, he was doing just fine before his flip-flop.

Portman is also strongly against obamacare and where he will garner even more votes

__________________
"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
mikec

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Reply with quote  #25 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dewey
spazsdad - I moved my response to another thread.


So did I, over in Dewey's Purposeful Questions thread.
bluedog

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Reply with quote  #26 
Quote:
.........he changed his stance for personal reasons vs. strategic reasons for votes


Real, never trust a politician!
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #27 
Nobody is suggesting Portman changed any views for sinister reasons.  I'm simply pointing out why he'll be a difficult Senator to beat.  He has a position on gay marriage that Dems favor and an "R" behind his name that Republicans favor.  I believe that gives him a more secure hold on his seat.
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #28 
So far on the dem senate thread, dewy has covered the republicans that will probably win their senate races???? Portman and Kirk. That's one way of not talking about the democrat politicians that should unseat any republicans.  Just holding seats in the senate ain't gonna get it done [retake the senate]. 

I appreciate the flattery that dewy took in trying to copy the "Taking back the Senate 2014" thread but there really is no meat on this bone.  We laid out those that would unseat democrat seats of congress in that thread and it happened.  Please dewy show us where you are trying to lead the readers.  Where will the dem gains actually be?  What state is actually gullible to listening to the democrat message?  What red wall state will be taken by some surprising democrat politician?

__________________
"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
Dewey

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Reply with quote  #29 
It's extremely early but I think we'll pick up our four out of Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, Arizona, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
mikec

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Reply with quote  #30 
No chance Rubio loses - none.
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