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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #61 
A couple of passages from John Greer's blog regarding technological progress.



"Technological progress is not exempt from the law of diminishing returns. Look at the history of any technology, and a familiar pattern reveals itself: after initial fumblings and a breakthrough or two, the low-hanging fruit is harvested first, yielding impressive gains at low cost; as time goes on, the cost for each additional improvement goes up, while the relative benefit provided by that improvement goes down; sooner or later, the benefits no longer pay for the development costs, and the technology settles into its mature form, which is often noticeably simpler than the last round of innovations would suggest.


An example:  Look at the history of the steam engine forward, and the same pattern shows itself—the total investment needed to pay for James Watt’s epochal redesign of the steam engine, even corrected for inflation, wouldn’t cover more than a few days of the world’s current investment in fusion power technologies that may never work at all. As science writer Charles Seife pointed out in his thoughtful book Sun In A Bottle: The Strange History of Fusion and the Science of Wishful Thinking, the history of the quest for fusion power has more in common with the quest for a working perpetual motion machine than today’s enthusiasts would like to admit;

Has the pursuit of technological progress brought benefits? Of course it has, but it’s also brought a bumper crop of burdens, costs, and problems. In a good many cases, the downsides of new technologies outweigh their benefits, and of course neither of these are equally distributed: the well-to-do minority get the lion’s share of the benefits, while the poor majority has to carry nearly all the costs. For the comfortable and the sheltered, who never stray outside the bubble of their privilege, it’s easy to insist that all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds; in the increasingly mean streets outside that bubble, that illusion doesn’t last long."

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #62 
Yes fusion is way more than 30 years out.  While not the savior of our immediate problems, it remains an important technology.

A lot of Fusions negativity come from mis representation.  They talked and talked about 'production' reactors in 30 years.  Everyone else thought that meant production, on the grid supplying power.  It actually was a more technical term, one that stated they would be able to maintain containment on the super hot plasma stream such that the plasma stream was sustained, and would not eat away the walls of the reactor.  

Fusion as a technology really encompasses a suite of problems.  Containment of super hot plasmas, energy extraction, super conducting magnets, a number of exotic materials research.  They are actually making about the expected progress on all these fronts.

The National Ignition Facility uses laser containment to create the plasma and force the Hydrogen nuclei together.  Some speculated that it would be a different approach and as such could lead to plasma containment innovations.  The people building NIF never felt that way.  It is important research in and of itself on how light pressure in the sun helps the sun maintain plasma and fusion.  It is also a super important element to understanding efficiency in nuclear fusion bombs, especially in older material.  

Everyone expects the $15B ITER to be the first net positive fusion reactor.  Producing 500MW with only 5MW of input.  That is based on currently developed and available energy extraction capabilities.  What is really needed is the ability to extract energy from the fast neutrinos that the fusion is producing.  Those fast neutrinos are causing a large percentage of the energy the reactor creates to escape.  

I still think that 30 years is way to short of a time for expecting fusion to be producing power on the grid.  I do think that you look out 60 though, and it is very likely we will have fusion power generation.  The great thing about fusion is almost no nasty long life time radioactive wastes.  The current reactors do produce something that has a half life of 12 years, but it is small in quantity, easy to handle and store, compared to fission by products.  

It is not a requirement that fusion come in any faster to save humanity.  As we continue our ramp up of renewables from 15% current.  It would not be hard to project, given existing technologies, that 15% would grow to 30% in 10 years.  In addition, NG that we are currently flaring off becomes the majority of the remaining electrical generation, so that is a huge net overall win.  NG was just being burned before, to get to the oil.  

That the discovery curves, the additional fracking extraction, those 50 year projected oil curves.  Add in the solar gains, if we can get some of those more efficient solar cells to market at a reasonable price.  Longer terms things seem fine.

The one area of most concern was a big part of what happened in WWI.  People felt automation was taking over their lives.  That they were losing their way of life and becoming subjects of the machines, which were owned and controlled by a selective few.  That cycle definitely seems to be attempting to repeat itself.  



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rudymartinez

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Reply with quote  #63 
Udub - thoughtful intelligent post. You lost the vast majority of America with the simple word fusion. The rest of your post went unnoticed. The attention span today, is about 10 seconds and you  better insult someone. Personally I enjoy your insights. Perhaps had you said, fusion is going to save you money. Then the great unwashed would have at least  scratched their heads and uttered money good.
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #64 
N.D.T. gets a little funky sometimes, but I think that this is accurate. Arguing about whether humans are significantly altering the global climate seems to be a waste of precious time.


"Tyson said he was gravely concerned that by engaging in debates over the existence of climate change, as opposed to discussions on how best to tackle it, the country was wasting valuable time and resources.
"The day two politicians are arguing about whether science is true, it means nothing gets done. Nothing," he said. "It's the beginning of the end of an informed democracy, as I've said many times. What I'd rather happen is you recognize what is scientifically truth, then you have your political debate."
Tyson told Zakaria that he believed that the longer the delay when it comes to responding to the ongoing threat of climate change, the bleaker the outcome. And perhaps, he hazarded, it was already even too late.
"I worry that we might not be able to recover from this because all our greatest cities are on the oceans and water's edges, historically for commerce and transportation," he said.
"And as storms kick in, as water levels rise, they are the first to go," he said. "And we don't have a system -- we don't have a civilization with the capacity to pick up a city and move it inland 20 miles. That's -- this is happening faster than our ability to respond. That could have huge economic consequences."
 

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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #65 
We are fukkin up the atmosphere and need to realize it. We might not be in a serious condition yet, but continued denial will only result in more extreme weather situations. Why stick your head in the sand?
woody

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Reply with quote  #66 
So, on a global scale, how much does man impact the climate, as opposed to natural changes in sun spot activity, opening and closing of the ozone layer at the poles, and multiple volcanic eruptions? I would call BS on man made climate change. Yes the climate changes, and has done so for eons.
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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #67 
So, the thrust of my post is "arguing about it is a waste of time" and that's what I get lol. Aiiiiiiight.
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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #68 
Record high temperatures 16 of the last 17 years should probably get your attention. Can you find that in any previous period of time?

EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #69 
Take that sh1t over to the global warming thread.
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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #70 
Quote:
Originally Posted by woody
So, on a global scale, how much does man impact the climate, as opposed to natural changes in sun spot activity, opening and closing of the ozone layer at the poles, and multiple volcanic eruptions? I would call BS on man made climate change. Yes the climate changes, and has done so for eons.


Agreed. So now, what will we do about coastal cities that will be under water soon? Move them, wait and hope they don't get inundated, or?

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keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #71 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce


Agreed. So now, what will we do about coastal cities that will be under water soon?
a]Move them,
b]wait and hope they do get inundated,
c]or?


answer b

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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #72 
hehe i c u.
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spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #73 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce
Take that sh1t over to the global warming thread.

Scrogged

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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #74 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce
Take that sh1t over to the global warming thread.


I, sir, will take my sh1t anywhere I please and you can't do a damn thing about it. Be glad there are people like me that worry about what matters. How much Ivanka spends on her looks ain't it. 
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #75 
Such an arrogant little prick you are.
Just like Antifa, you feel your rights are more equal than the rights of those you disagree with.

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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #76 
Quote:
Originally Posted by spazsdad
Such an arrogant little prick you are. Just like Antifa, you feel your rights are more equal than the rights of those you disagree with.


Better than being an ignorant little prick. This is an inconsequential little message board with a few hundred views and matters to nobody but the few that come here. How have I done anytyhing that infringes on your right to be wrong?
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #77 
My dismissal of your views is in no way ignorant. Just common sense without the emotion of liberals.
Your total disregard for basic Internet forum protocols, and a direct request from the OP shows your arrogance. Unfortunately you are all hat, no cattle.
If this place is so inconsequential why do you bother. How is your superior intellect challenged by a bunch a backwoods, inbred stupid rednecks.
Other than that, eat a bag of dicks.😘

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #78 
Climate gentrificaton. Of course. We do what we do.


"Here in the US, as a result of rising sea level, the number of high tide-related floods has nearly doubled — 520 last year, according to NOAA, as compared to the usual average of 275 a year. In response, real estate investors in the greater Miami area are quietly moving to higher ground, relocating away from beachfront property into formerly poor neighborhoods that are a few more feet above sea level. Fort Lauderdale, meanwhile, is having to raise fees for drainage in order to deal with the increased cost of flooding. Expect much more of this in the years ahead. Nobody’s yet willing to deal with the reality of the situation, which is that most of Florida will have to be abandoned to the sea in the decades ahead of us."

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spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #79 
I would venture that the land of Fl, over Earths history, has been uninhabitable way longer than it has had people living there.
Humans have been around for .004% of Earths life but somehow some are certain that 20, or whatever number, years ago is somehow "normal" temps and weather and that is our benchmark for survival.

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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #80 
This is the only place I see the views you people have. They are mistifying to me. You ignore competent news sources and scour the dark net for stories corroborating your twisted beliefs. It is confounding to me and I guess it appeals to my enjoyment of a good argument. I do enjoy the discourse.
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #81 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fresh
This is the only place I see the views you people have. They are mistifying to me.

Sounds exactly why Dems are losing seats like a severed artery. The left and their media cronies are mistified by traditional Americans and their core values regarding conservatism and the Constitution.
New York and CA are not America

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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #82 
Georgia here.
pabar61

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Reply with quote  #83 
Fresh, if you're not Dewey in disguise then you're no different than Dewey.  From your lofty perch you can't see how anyone can think differently than you.  Leftists are the most closed-minded people I've ever come across.  That's why the comparison between Nazi Germany and the current Left/Liberal movement is so appropriate.  Both sought to shut down opposing opinions.
Fresh

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Reply with quote  #84 
I can't understand where you come from. I have many friends that disagree with me, but I understand their positions. I do not understand most of the opinions offered here.
woody

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Reply with quote  #85 
There used to be another barrier island off of Galveston. There is an ancient band of cypress and pine trees now underwater and layers of silt in the Gulf of Mexico Would you consider these inundated areas to be the result of man made climate change?
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Anarcho Capitalism. Get some, and no you can't have any of my money to live off of you Socialist Democrat.

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Fresh

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Reply with quote  #86 
No
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #87 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
Yes fusion is way more than 30 years out.  While not the savior of our immediate problems, it remains an important technology.


Everyone expects the $15B ITER to be the first net positive fusion reactor.  Producing 500MW with only 5MW of input.  That is based on currently developed and available energy extraction capabilities.  What is really needed is the ability to extract energy from the fast neutrinos that the fusion is producing.  Those fast neutrinos are causing a large percentage of the energy the reactor creates to escape.  



The estimate of total cost for the ITER project has recently gone up from 14 Billion to 17 Billion. No doubt, by 'completion' in 2020, it will far exceed that number. 6 decades of work by physicists from across the globe, exploring myriad different approaches to fusion, have proved one thing. Any less expensive approach won't produce a sustained fusion reaction.
Soooo, even if ITER manages to sustain a fusion reaction, literally Thousands of fusion power plants would have to be built if fusion is to have any significant impact on our energy needs. Thousands of them. Of course the following commercial reactors will cost less than the initial prototype, but they never will produce scalable electricity at an affordable price. Fusion will remain an expensive lab toy.

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A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
bluedog

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Reply with quote  #88 
Earthquake today in Mexico City........

Disasters and catastrophes will increase - seems like I read that.............. 
Fresh

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Reply with quote  #89 
So you're all in on global warming?
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #90 
Already told you to take that sh1t over to the global warming thread. You already scrogging half the threads on this forum. 
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A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
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