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EarlyGrayce

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A thread to discuss differing visions of possible futures. Global futures, political and societal futures, economic and industrial futures, and the future of America and our families. I expect wildly disparate reactions, and it's all good. This is the wild west, there will be no request for civility or 'rules'. I'd hope this thread can reasonably stay on topic.
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EarlyGrayce

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Levin yesterday discussing the 'next 9/11'. Pondering that in the near future Iran or NK will pop a nuke on our soil and that will be our next 9/11. Gotta agree, the time for us to be able to realistically control those two F's has come and gone. Maybe a suitcase nuke, maybe a container on a container-ship in port, maybe dirty to go with the rad, maybe an EMP from 120 miles up. It's all bad. Best make some modest preparations my friends, and most important of those preparations, make your loved ones sit down and have a critical conversation regarding what the game plan will be for your and yours depending on the 3 likely options you will face, i.e. size of event, location, and aftermath. 
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pabar61

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Good topic EG.  Here is my take.

People in mostly Anglo-Saxon countries are re-producing at lesser rates and people in non Anglo-Saxon countries are re-producing at higher rate.  In particular, Asians, Hispanics and those from mostly Muslim countries are beginning to be the dominant cultures in terms of population.

Of those, they have different motivations.  Hispanics, many of whom are Catholic, are simply producing the way Catholics have always produced.  Asians, despite China's one child policies will become more and more dominant through increases in production and technology fueled by extremely cheap labor.  They will continue to increase their net export economies.

Muslims are the ones that are most worrisome.  They are on a jihad to convert the entire world to Islam and they are doing it in two ways.  One is through terrorism which is really the much more minor effort.  The major effort is through population expansion and emigration to western countries.  That is why you see places like Manchester, England and Dearborn, Michigan becoming Muslim dominated.  That will continue.  And it's important to note that they make no effort to assimilate or to hide their disdain for assimilation.  It is very clear what their intent is.  It's a slow but sure taking over of the world.

The only hope to stop it in our own country is by demanding assimilation and allegiance to the Constitution and by banning any efforts to implement Sharia Law anywhere.
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #4 
Agreed. Emigration and non-assimilation is guaranteed to tear apart the society of the host country if allowed to grow.
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EarlyGrayce

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The 'one-world' agenda must be stopped in this country.  There will never be a utopian one-world society devoid of classes; if the liberals win this war, America will give up the standard of living and constitutional republic that we currently have, and when the dust settles, we will have a third world country.
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rudymartinez

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Where do Africans fit into your equation Poobag.  Africans, on a whole are reproducing at a higher rate than all the others. Roughly half are Christian and half are Muslins, with slightly more being Christians. Please expand on your learned observations and remember don't leave anyone out. Lest you be accused of white guilt.
EarlyGrayce

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Not sure on poohbag's thoughts on that, but would say that we have globally overshot our planet's carrying capacity by about 6 billion people. Mass die off's are coming. As oil depletion begins to significantly reduce agricultural production and output in many different ways, starvation will begin the work (in countries that had previously been exempt from lack of food issues) of balancing the human population and the planet's carrying capacity.
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woody

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Reply with quote  #8 
Agricultural production is increasing and will continue to increas in the US and other nations. The ability of non producer nations to afford or better yet to even care about paying to feed their exploding populations is more likely the cause of future famines. How many famines have there been in European nations lately? Venezuela is starving because of socialist policies. African famine is also political in nature. Masses of uneducated, or stupid people being ruled over by dictators is not a formula for a successful nation state.
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mikec

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce
The 'one-world' agenda must be stopped in this country.  There will never be a utopian one-world society devoid of classes; if the liberals win this war, America will give up the standard of living and constitutional republic that we currently have, and when the dust settles, we will have a third world country.


I don't see the south settling for this.  We will leave before we devolve into a 3rd world country.
EarlyGrayce

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikec


I don't see the south settling for this.  We will leave before we devolve into a 3rd world country.


Agreed. Secession movements will be a likely (and more mainstream) player in the coming decade.  

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spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #11 
Saw a thread on TX facts. ThEir economy by itself woils be 13th in the world. I'd say self sustainble
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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #12 
For the last 200 years or so, our country has been trying to attain limitless economic growth on a finite planet. Unfortunately, that math will never add up, but the peoples of the industrial world are intent on continuing to drive the existing order of things forward until the wheels fall off.  We are hardwired to believe that our tomorrow MUST be better than our today was.  

The driving force behind this belief is that during the last 200 years or so of industrial expansion, we have cashed in the fossil fuel reserves that took billions of years to create. It's been a great ride.  As John Greer noted, "our garbage collectors have access to things that Emperors could not get before the industrial revolution."

Anyway, this brief period of insane excessive consumption has mistakenly led many to believe that unlimited exponential growth is normal, good, and sustainable.  It's not.

So that's the drift of this thread.  As more and more people are finally doing the math and are beginning to fear the worst, I believe that we have 3 significant groups of people, in terms of their beliefs about how this all will go down:

1-The 'technology will save us' group, where we can sustain growth, and scalable electricity, transportation, and agriculture, forever;
2-The 'religious/spiritual' group that believes it is all part of the plan, so they have no control over the future;
3-The 'F it we either will get nuked or Ebola'd or hit by a meteor or other disaster' group, so who cares.

I am hoping that there is a growing number of people who want to be in a 4th group. Deal with the realities, make the hard decisions, change the National conversation.





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mikec

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Reply with quote  #13 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce

Deal with the realities, make the hard decisions, change the National conversation.




The first two I get.  What does #3 mean?  Conversation about what?
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #14 
Good question mike thanks. I'm not really sure myself. About radically changing the role/ownership/usage of the remaining fossil fuel reserves maybe. Maybe about edging away from any 'global' world, because once the planes stop flying, that is over. Maybe about ending the urban growth mindset, cause they are mostly going to die as soon as things ratchet down? I have lots of thoughts, not a lot of surety. 
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keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #15 
Conversation about saving the country from the dark ages. The nuts and bolts of saving our country. Will I Wynn's chicken little. Even convention of States', action breaking
this union apart, do it

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EarlyGrayce

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Agreed, breaking this country into common-sense smaller regions would be a great step towards cushioning the coming collapse for many people.
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keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #17 
Please do it, it's been done amongst countries for centuries. Break this union. Keep giving us reasons, please
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"I like to establish the parameters of my own thoughts and don't think I need a director."

"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #18 
The problem is there are too many that could not survive on their lifestyle choices, just look at the election results and while they could be a minor threat, overal, desperate people do desperate things. Those same people have accesss to large financia reserves which could be an issue. They won't go quietly and money has a way of motivating many opportunists
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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #19 
Luckily most of the loony ones are anti gun nuts.  So we just all move to Texas (or some unknown location).  Let them focus on tearing down statues, overpaying losers that are not very talented, sex change operations and such.  

It will be 3 of 4 years before they realize we moved out and seceded from them.  Hell they will still be b1tching about Trump getting 2 scoops at that point. 

By the time they get desperate and make a run at us best they could achieve is being challenging target practice.

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EarlyGrayce

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Quote:
Originally Posted by spazsdad
The problem is there are too many that could not survive on their lifestyle choices, just look at the election results and while they could be a minor threat, overal, desperate people do desperate things. Those same people have accesss to large financia reserves which could be an issue. They won't go quietly and money has a way of motivating many opportunists


Agreed on every point. And while paper money retains some value, it will cause pain and suffering to those who don't have it. The monetary economy will collapse fairly quickly as the decline continues, if that's any consolation.

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mikec

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Reply with quote  #21 
the only problem with secession is that we have our pockets of loony tunes lib cities, even in the south.  Maybe they'll get skeered, and flee north.

Now that would be a happy ending.
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #22 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
Luckily most of the loony ones are anti gun nuts.  So we just all move to Texas (or some unknown location).  Let them focus on tearing down statues, overpaying losers that are not very talented, sex change operations and such.  

It will be 3 of 4 years before they realize we moved out and seceded from them.  Hell they will still be b1tching about Trump getting 2 scoops at that point. 

By the time they get desperate and make a run at us best they could achieve is being challenging target practice.


Atta boy. I know you are tongue-in-cheek, and I wear you out on this topic. But there's hope for you yet, brother.
Anyhoo, there's a nugget of wisdom in your post. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to build some bridges with like-minded folks. That takes time, but it's never too late to get started. I'm not talking prepper-lunatics, I'm just talking like-minded about what the next couple of decades might look like, and what might start to make sense for our kin.

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #23 
You don't actually wear me out on this at all.  

I just don't think some long down the road oil shock get us.   I think Ryan McConnell Shumer Pelosi crew continue the federal government largess.  This time they will likely not cut any government of note.  Still cut taxes.  Sometime we will have a mountain of debt.  And our economy will tank because of some stupid housing loans to people that can't afford type project. 

Only this time we actually can't pay our debt.  That dominos around the world. Ends up everyone against us.  We struggle for a lot of years under massive tariff pressures.  Dems join Mccain war hawk group, cause they realize it is all completely screwed and they are about to lose power.  We start a war and loose to France or something stupid.  Then we are fully f'd.  

At that point it will be us illegally immigrating into Mexico.  rudymartinez we going to be looking you up for the good tamales at that point.  Don't turn us in buddy.


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mikec

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Reply with quote  #24 
if we lost to france, and emigrate to Mexico, this thread is starting to skeer me
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #25 
#DON'TTURNUSINBUDDY


That's Gold Jerry, Gold.

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spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #26 
We could all go to Mexico, make them put signs in English and give us free sh it.
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woody

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Reply with quote  #27 
EG, we keep discovering previously unknown oil and gas reserves, and getting better at extracting oil. How far into the future do you estimate this "oil and gas crunch" will occur? At what point will Solar power be able to compete head to head with fossil fuel without government subsidies? How will heavy loads of goods be transported to local stores without fossil fuel? I can only assume some other fuel source other than solar, or nuclear will have to be developed to power heavy equipment.
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Rats flee from the sinking vessel. They traverse nimbly upon a rope, safely cleated to the dock, that is private enterprise. Socialism is dead, and tits up in the water. A bloated, death show, for rubberneckers of all classes to view.

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #28 
Quote:
Originally Posted by woody
EG, we keep discovering previously unknown oil and gas reserves, and getting better at extracting oil. How far into the future do you estimate this "oil and gas crunch" will occur? At what point will Solar power be able to compete head to head with fossil fuel without government subsidies? How will heavy loads of goods be transported to local stores without fossil fuel? I can only assume some other fuel source other than solar, or nuclear will have to be developed to power heavy equipment.




All great questions. I'll try to give it to you straight, as I understand it. (Caveat: I have studied extensively on these topics, and read everything that I can find. Of course, depending on your source, you can get widely disparate answers. I feel like exercising a little common sense when parsing the information leads me always to the same conclusions.)

-EG, we keep discovering previously unknown oil and gas reserves, and getting better at extracting oil: Not really accurate. Fracking, for example, has been around since the 1940's. The reality of our oil draw-down is, as makes sense, we have been drawing out the "easiest to extract" fossil fuels first, because, that gives more ROI (Retrun on Investment) to the extractor if it costs them less  to extract. In other words, we have been sticking a straw into a pool of liquid, and sucking it out. Those pools are emptying now. Hence, fracking comes back into favor, because even though it costs more (financially and environmentally) to do, we can still squeeze some oil out of the dirt and rock that surrounds the Now-empty pools of oil. Case in point: there was a "newly discovered" shale field in North Dakota not too long ago. That one had actually been 'found' many decades earlier, it just had been ignored because there was easier pickings elsewhere. Of course, we have terrific state of the art "oil finding" technology. We are now "finding" primarily shale beds that require fracking. I don't believe that we will be "finding" huge new liquid fossil fuel reserves. (Which btw only exist at very specific depths within our core, due to the required pressures and temperatures needed to make them) Trust me, we have thoroughly examined these depths across the entire planet.

How far into the future do you estimate this "oil and gas crunch" will occur? It is already following a downward curve, that will occasionally plateau, occasionally rise, but always continue overall downward. There will always be some fossil fuels left in the earth, as we will stop going after them at the point when the cost of extraction equals the ROI for each barrel. But in practical terms, I suspect by 2025 it will be apparent to the masses that we are heading for the end of the industrial age. Here's something to consider: BP OIL has reluctantly put in writing that they predict that the global oil reserves will be exhausted by 2060. Gone. And that oil-company based estimate is "at current production levels", which of course won't even be viable with our exponentially increasing population. One more example: the "Huge" Apache Oil shale "find" in NW Texas last year. If you read those headlines, you would think we are wallowing in a never-ending supply of oil. Fact is, 1-it's shale, not oil, so fracking; 2-it's projected to be 3 billion barrels (optimistically); 3-the US uses 7.2 billion barrels per year. That math is not good. 

At what point will Solar power be able to compete head to head with fossil fuel without government subsidies?-Never ever. Solar requires tremendous amounts of fossil fuels in all aspects of production and distribution and storage. The EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invrested) for solar is awful. Solar is not in any imagination scalable to do anything significant at the scale we currently use energy. Solar will never be useful for transportation purposes on any real scale.

How will heavy loads of goods be transported to local stores without fossil fuel?-They will be transported by locomotive and/or river barge. And locomotive only if we get busy fixing the rails and focusing on what energy sources we will be using to power the trains. There will be no air transport or internal combustion engine motor vehicle transport. The roadway system will disintegrate quickly as well. The era of having a personal car for a person or a family will draw to a close. Community living will become the norm. There will be no need to 'travel' great distances. If that sounds like a return to the past, it is. A past that lasted Tens of Thousands of years, until fossil fuels were 'found'. So, when they are gone, we will return to what always worked for thousands of years. The logic is inescapable.

 I can only assume some other fuel source other than solar, or nuclear will have to be developed to power heavy equipment?-That, my friend, is the "technology will save us" group mantra. I wish this was true, I really do. But I don't see it. And this is exactly one of the hard National conversations that I wish our pols and people could be having.

So, the next time somebody rolls out solar/wind/hydrogen to you as a viable future power source, talking points:  Scalable to continue how we currently operate? Storage? Able to be built and sustained with no fossil fuels? Viable for transportation of mass goods purposes? Show me that.

Anyway, I suspect that in the near future, we will be using hay to power heavy equipment. Those horses get hungry pulling a plow.

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1janiedough

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Reply with quote  #29 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pabar61
Good topic EG.  Here is my take.

People in mostly Anglo-Saxon countries are re-producing at lesser rates and people in non Anglo-Saxon countries are re-producing at higher rate.  In particular, Asians, Hispanics and those from mostly Muslim countries are beginning to be the dominant cultures in terms of population.

Of those, they have different motivations.  Hispanics, many of whom are Catholic, are simply producing the way Catholics have always produced.  Asians, despite China's one child policies will become more and more dominant through increases in production and technology fueled by extremely cheap labor.  They will continue to increase their net export economies.

Muslims are the ones that are most worrisome.  They are on a jihad to convert the entire world to Islam and they are doing it in two ways.  One is through terrorism which is really the much more minor effort.  The major effort is through population expansion and emigration to western countries.  That is why you see places like Manchester, England and Dearborn, Michigan becoming Muslim dominated.  That will continue.  And it's important to note that they make no effort to assimilate or to hide their disdain for assimilation.  It is very clear what their intent is.  It's a slow but sure taking over of the world.

The only hope to stop it in our own country is by demanding assimilation and allegiance to the Constitution and by banning any efforts to implement Sharia Law anywhere.



You cannot trust a single word a muslim says...ever.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #30 
Quote:
Originally Posted by spazsdad
We could all go to Mexico, make them put signs in English and give us free sh it.

spazsdad gets it.  Anyone know what the free sh it scene is like in Mexico?  Just asking, in case. 

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