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smcouvillion

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Posts: 191
Reply with quote  #31 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
A flight is a flight.... or is flight whackiness also in play?


Say BYU has to transport 30 people.

A flight from Salt Lake City to Portland is $295 per person. This would cost $8850 for just the flight. This does not factor in driving time from Provo to Salt Lake City and Portland to Eugene, which could cost a lot. A hotel room in Eugene costs around $119 per night. Lets say they need 10 hotel rooms and each stay 3 nights. This would cost $3,570. A total plane and hotel cost of $12,420.

A flight from Salt Lake City to Houston is $393 per person. This would cost $11,790 for just the flight. This does not factor in driving time from Provo to Salt Lake City and Houston to College Station, which could cost a lot. A hotel in college station is around $96 per night, say they stay 3 nights and rent 10 rooms. This would cost $2,880. A total plane and room cost of $14,670.

So overall, the flight from Salt Lake City to Portland is around $2,250 less than the one from Salt Lake City to Houston. $2,250 DOLLARS IS A LOT OF MONEY.
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #32 
Didn't realize that Fullerton and Long Beach State are from the same conference fml.
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #33 

#1 Oregon, Missouri, Cal State Fullerton, BYU

#2 UCLA, Long Beach State, UIC, Sacramento State

#3 Florida, Hofstra, FGCU, Bethune Cookman

#4 Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Wichita State, North Dakota State

#5 Arizona State, Northwestern, DePaul, Albany

#6 Washington, Michigan, Liberty, Boise State

#7 Florida State, Kentucky, South Florida, Jacksonville State

#8 South Carolina, Pittsburgh, UNCG, St. Francis

#9 Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas, Middle Tennessee

#10 LSU, Louisiana, McNeese State, Monmouth

#11 Georgia, James Madison, Kennesaw State, Ohio

#12 Alabama, Minnesota, California. Harvard

#13 Texas A&M, Texas State, Houston, Prairie View

#14 Arizona, Baylor, Ole Miss, New Mexico State

#15 Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Drake, Tulsa

#16 Auburn, Oregon State, Boston, Fordham

Updated to remove Cal State Fullerton and LBSU in same regional.

hofpridefan

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Posts: 425
Reply with quote  #34 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
BTW, Behind The Plate has Hofstra hosting


It would make sense, with Fordham being in that regional, and it would be interesting for Mickey Dean to visit Hofstra again after the JMU/HU battles the past few years. Doubt it would happen though, not ranked high enough, and I can't imagine the university would want even more people on campus, with graduation and the NCAA men's lacrosse semifinals that same weekend. 10k+ people are excepted for lacrosse.
smcouvillion

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Reply with quote  #35 
Hofstra ain't hosting. They are like 26 in the RPI.
d4cohn

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Reply with quote  #36 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion

#1 Oregon, Missouri, Cal State Fullerton, BYU

#2 UCLA, Long Beach State, UIC, Sacramento State

#3 Florida, Hofstra, FGCU, Bethune Cookman

#4 Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Wichita State, North Dakota State

#5 Arizona State, Northwestern, DePaul, Albany

#6 Washington, Michigan, Liberty, Boise State

#7 Florida State, Kentucky, South Florida, Jacksonville State

#8 South Carolina, Pittsburgh, UNCG, St. Francis

#9 Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas, Middle Tennessee

#10 LSU, Louisiana, McNeese State, Monmouth

#11 Georgia, James Madison, Kennesaw State, Ohio

#12 Alabama, Minnesota, California. Harvard

#13 Texas A&M, Texas State, Houston, Prairie View

#14 Arizona, Baylor, Ole Miss, New Mexico State

#15 Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Drake, Tulsa

#16 Auburn, Oregon State, Boston, Fordham

Updated to remove Cal State Fullerton and LBSU in same regional.



Great bracket. Couple of thoughts. I would have Tulsa as a 3-seed over Boston, and BYU as a 3-seed over UIC. BYU and Tulsa's RPI's are significantly higher than either UIC or Boston U. 

As we have previously discussed, I definitely think Pitt is in the Dance, but I don't know if on their whole-body of work, they are a No.2 seed. Granted, the other candidates didn't exactly play very well down the stretch, and someone has to receive that seed, but I would probably give it to Wichita by default, not because I thought they necessarily performed well in the AAC conference tournament.  
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #37 

Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion


Say BYU has to transport 30 people.

A flight from Salt Lake City to Portland is $295 per person. This would cost $8850 for just the flight. This does not factor in driving time from Provo to Salt Lake City and Portland to Eugene, which could cost a lot. A hotel room in Eugene costs around $119 per night. Lets say they need 10 hotel rooms and each stay 3 nights. This would cost $3,570. A total plane and hotel cost of $12,420.

A flight from Salt Lake City to Houston is $393 per person. This would cost $11,790 for just the flight. This does not factor in driving time from Provo to Salt Lake City and Houston to College Station, which could cost a lot. A hotel in college station is around $96 per night, say they stay 3 nights and rent 10 rooms. This would cost $2,880. A total plane and room cost of $14,670.

So overall, the flight from Salt Lake City to Portland is around $2,250 less than the one from Salt Lake City to Houston. $2,250 DOLLARS IS A LOT OF MONEY.
Are  you going to make me scour baseball and softball regionals in the offseason to see counters to your logic here?

HOW much time is spent in that room deconstructing a good bracket, after it has been soiled by busing already, by scouring hotwire.com????

NickSports

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Reply with quote  #38 
I don't want to see Michigan again.
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #39 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion

#1 Oregon, Missouri, Cal State Fullerton, BYU

#2 UCLA, Long Beach State, UIC, Sacramento State

#3 Florida, Hofstra, FGCU, Bethune Cookman

#4 Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Wichita State, North Dakota State

#5 Arizona State, Northwestern, DePaul, Albany

#6 Washington, Michigan, Liberty, Boise State

#7 Florida State, Kentucky, South Florida, Jacksonville State

#8 South Carolina, Pittsburgh, UNCG, St. Francis

#9 Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas, Middle Tennessee

#10 LSU, Louisiana, McNeese State, Monmouth

#11 Georgia, James Madison, Kennesaw State, Ohio

#12 Alabama, Minnesota, California. Harvard

#13 Texas A&M, Texas State, Houston, Prairie View

#14 Arizona, Baylor, Ole Miss, New Mexico State

#15 Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Drake, Tulsa

#16 Auburn, Oregon State, Boston, Fordham

Updated to remove Cal State Fullerton and LBSU in same regional.



Really good stuff.  I believe that the final spot is between USF and Notre Dame.  Heading into tournament play, USF was #42, and ND was #43.

In conference tourneys, USF beat #136 UConn, #77 Memphis, and lost to #59 Tulsa.

ND beat #53 Boston College and lost to #6 Florida State.

Could go either way.
d4cohn

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Posts: 40
Reply with quote  #40 
Quote:
Originally Posted by d4cohn


Great bracket. Couple of thoughts. I would have Tulsa as a 3-seed over Boston, and BYU as a 3-seed over UIC. BYU and Tulsa's RPI's are significantly higher than either UIC or Boston U. 

As we have previously discussed, I definitely think Pitt is in the Dance, but I don't know if on their whole-body of work, they are a No.2 seed. Granted, the other candidates didn't exactly play very well down the stretch, and someone has to receive that seed, but I would probably give it to Wichita by default, not because I thought they necessarily performed well in the AAC conference tournament.  


One more switch. I would send Long Beach to Arizona State's regional, and Northwestern to UCLA's. I would also probably send Missouri to Washington's regional, and Michigan to Oregon's.
Prowler

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Reply with quote  #41 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

Are  you going to make me scour baseball and softball regionals in the offseason to see counters to your logic here?

HOW much time is spent in that room deconstructing a good bracket, after it has been soiled by busing already, by scouring hotwire.com????



The NCAA baseball tournament makes money. The softball tournament loses money.

It’s easy to spend other peoples’ money to create a result that pleases you, but there are budgets and there has to be fiscal responsibility. Softball is not the only sport — tennis and lacrosse and many other sports’ postseasons also run at a deficit and I’m sure fans in every sport have their own ideas about how NCAA money could be spent to make the postseason draw to their liking.
DunninLA

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Reply with quote  #42 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prowler
Softball is not the only sport — tennis and lacrosse and *many* other sports’ postseasons also run at a deficit and I’m sure fans in every sport have their own ideas about how NCAA money could be spent to make the postseason draw to their liking.
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midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #43 
One more tidbit about Notre Dame that COULD come into play.  Feel free to tell me I am crazy. They have 2 wins against #28 Minnesota.  I am no RPI expert, but with the Gophers winning the BIG tournament, might it be possible for MN to sneak back into the top 25 in the FINAL RPI?  And if they do, won't the ND wins over MN count a bit more?  
RahOKU

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Posts: 1,578
Reply with quote  #44 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcouvillion

#1 Oregon, Missouri, Cal State Fullerton, BYU

#2 UCLA, Long Beach State, UIC, Sacramento State

#3 Florida, Hofstra, FGCU, Bethune Cookman

#4 Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Wichita State, North Dakota State

#5 Arizona State, Northwestern, DePaul, Albany

#6 Washington, Michigan, Liberty, Boise State

#7 Florida State, Kentucky, South Florida, Jacksonville State

#8 South Carolina, Pittsburgh, UNCG, St. Francis

#9 Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas, Middle Tennessee

#10 LSU, Louisiana, McNeese State, Monmouth

#11 Georgia, James Madison, Kennesaw State, Ohio

#12 Alabama, Minnesota, California. Harvard

#13 Texas A&M, Texas State, Houston, Prairie View

#14 Arizona, Baylor, Ole Miss, New Mexico State

#15 Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Drake, Tulsa

#16 Auburn, Oregon State, Boston, Fordham

Updated to remove Cal State Fullerton and LBSU in same regional.



This is really interesting stuff -- well above my pay grade. I looked at distribution of teams for each of the top 8 seeds, and I think Florida, Oklahoma, Washington and Florida State might call for a re-deal.

Oregon regional = Missouri (23 latest RPI), BYU (52) and UIC (143). The RPI average for Oregon's guests is 72.6.

UCLA regional = Long Beach St (18), CSUF (47), Sacramento St (204). Average: 89.6.

Florida regional = Hofstra (22), FGCU (33), Bethune Cookman (214). Average: 89.6 (though really skewed by B-CC.

Oklahoma regional = Mississippi St (20), Wichita St (32) and North Dakota St (55). Average: 35.6.

Arizona State regional = Northwestern (38), DePaul (68) and Albany St (154). Average: 86.6 and all of these teams are going to be taking long flights.

Washington regional = Michigan (30), Liberty (36) and Boise St (64). Average: 43.3.

Florida State regional = Kentucky (14), South Florida (42) and Jacksonville St (110). Average: 55.3.

South Carolina regional = Pitt (48), UNCG (57) and St. Francis (104). Average: 69.6.

It'll be interesting to see how things actually are seeded.


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3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #45 
Quote:
Originally Posted by d4cohn


One more switch. I would send Long Beach to Arizona State's regional, and Northwestern to UCLA's. I would also probably send Missouri to Washington's regional, and Michigan to Oregon's.
A team with a massive difference when their ace pitches (Michigan and Texas State fit this bill) should be going to a lower host, not a top-8 seed.
sMurph

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Posts: 361
Reply with quote  #46 

 


Kentucky is the best team you don't have hosting. You don't send the #1 seed the best #2 seed. Minnesota is about the 3rd or 4th best 2 seed. Again, it goes against basic bracketing principles to send them to 1 of the top teams in the country. 

Finally, Missouri will be in the tournament as a 2 seed, obviously. 
midwestfp

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Posts: 891
Reply with quote  #47 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sMurph

 


Kentucky is the best team you don't have hosting. You don't send the #1 seed the best #2 seed. Minnesota is about the 3rd or 4th best 2 seed. Again, it goes against basic bracketing principles to send them to 1 of the top teams in the country.  


Kentucky is "better" than MN only in RPI points.  When they met on the field, the better team won.  And that was back when MN was a bit of a disaster.  
Prowler

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Reply with quote  #48 
Looks like 3leftturns withdrew his question: Five years ago the NCAA Baseball Tournament made about $9M ... I’d assume it’s more these days:

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2014/06/26/how-much-money-does-vanderbilt-make-for-winning-college-world-series/

Compare attendance at regionals and super regoinals to softball ... and then look up how much host schools charge per ticket for each. Not to mention the 350K attendance at the baseball World Series (again, with higher ticket costs) ... roughly 300,000 more than softball’s record.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #49 
Yes, I looked it up. But, thanks for that link
ice_man

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Reply with quote  #50 
Notre Dame should definitely be in before USF. After the conference tournaments, Notre Dame’s RPI should be higher that USF’s. Even if it is not, ND’s body of work far surpasses that of USF.
Notre Dame should be in ahead of Pittsburgh as well, for all the same reasons.
Prowler

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Reply with quote  #51 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Yes, I looked it up. But, thanks for that link


Well, you kindly asked me to do your research for you so I obliged.

Intersting that you didn’t post it yourself.

But, hey, what’s a few thousand dollars extra on flights to satisfy the whims of a message board poster who decides on a Sunday afternoon that he wants the BYU team to play in a different time zone that usual, even if it creates extra travel hardship on a school that’s obviously going to be making a quick turnaround due to playing in a Thursday-Saturday regional?
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #52 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prowler
Well, you kindly asked me to do your research for you so I obliged. Intersting that you didn’t post it yourself. But, hey, what’s a few thousand dollars extra on flights to satisfy the whims of a message board poster who decides on a Sunday afternoon that he wants the BYU team to play in a different time zone that usual, even if it creates extra travel hardship on a school that’s obviously going to be making a quick turnaround due to playing in a Thursday-Saturday regional?
I did make a huge mistake. Should have subbed in L.A. and Tucson instead of Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

d4cohn

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Reply with quote  #53 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ice_man
Notre Dame should definitely be in before USF. After the conference tournaments, Notre Dame’s RPI should be higher that USF’s. Even if it is not, ND’s body of work far surpasses that of USF. Notre Dame should be in ahead of Pittsburgh as well, for all the same reasons.


I think Pitt's RPI is going to be higher than ND's after their ACC title game run, and ND's early exit. Aside from that, Pitt has been playing much better than ND for at least a month now. ND's best non-conference wins are against Michigan and Minnesota in what has been a down year for the Big 10. In the last month, ND lost a series at home to "expansion-team" Duke, split with Loyola, lost a series at BC, lost to Northwestern, beat Bowling Green, and picked up one game against FSU, while otherwise getting blown out in the other two games. In the ACC tournament, ND picked up a neutral site win over BC, before getting blown out for a third time over FSU. (Pitt's loss in the ACC Championship game was on a walk-off homerun).
midwestfp

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Posts: 891
Reply with quote  #54 
Quote:
Originally Posted by d4cohn


I think Pitt's RPI is going to be higher than ND's after their ACC title game run, and ND's early exit. Aside from that, Pitt has been playing much better than ND for at least a month now. ND's best non-conference wins are against Michigan and Minnesota in what has been a down year for the Big 10. In the last month, ND lost a series at home to "expansion-team" Duke, split with Loyola, lost a series at BC, lost to Northwestern, beat Bowling Green, and picked up one game against FSU, while otherwise getting blown out in the other two games. In the ACC tournament, ND picked up a neutral site win over BC, before getting blown out for a third time over FSU. (Pitt's loss in the ACC Championship game was on a walk-off homerun).


Agree with some of this, and also disagree.  

Prior to the ACC tournament, ND was at 43, Pitt was at 48.  You suggest that Pitt will jump ND after the tournament.  

Pitt beat #124 Va Tech (7th inning rally), #67 North Carolina, and lost to #6 FSU.

ND beat #53 BC (a better win than either of the two Pitt wins), and also lost to #6 FSU.  That loss was in the semifinals - not exactly an "early exit."  

RPI does not care much about margin of victory.  I have a hard time believing that those results will result in Pitt jumping ND in the RPI.  Anyone else disagree?

But all you wrote about the eyeball test and recent results I agree with.  




3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #55 
Pitt beat two awful teams.

I don't think they surpass Notre Dame, certainly not in RPI
ice_man

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Reply with quote  #56 
I do not see how Pitt’s RPI will jump 5 spots to surpass Notre Dame. Their ACC “run” consisted of beating two relatively weak teams with lower RPI’s before losing to FSU. Notre Dame beat a relatively stronger ACC team (Boston College #53) before losing to FSU. If you want to give Pitt credit for losing on a walk off, don’t you then have to discount them for winning on a walk off against a weaker team in the tournament?

Lastly, I am pretty sure Pitt has very few (maybe only one) top 50 wins, while Notre Dame has seven.

That being said, I believe that both teams will get in, and USF will be out.
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #57 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ice_man
That being said, I believe that both teams will get in, and USF will be out.


Lefty referenced a website called Behind the Plate earlier end they have all 3 teams IN.  Dont get how that's possible.  Not sure who else they excluded. 

(1) OregonTexasDrakeAlbany
(16) HofstraAuburnPittsburghFordham
(8) South CarolinaJames MadisonLibertyBoston University
(9) TennesseeOhio StateUNC GreensboroMiddle Tennessee
(5) WashingtonNorthwesternBYUUI- Chicago
(12) AlabamaMichiganNotre DameJacksonville State
(4) FloridaCaliforniaSouth FloridaBethune-Cookman
(13) GeorgiaMinnesotaKennesaw StateOhio
(3) OklahomaTexas StateWichita StateDePaul
(14) ArkansasOklahoma StateTulsaNorth Dakota State
(6) Arizona StateOle MissCal State FullertonMonmouth
(11) ArizonaKentuckyBoise StateNew Mexico State
(7) Florida StateMississippi StateOregon StateHarvard
(10) LSULouisianaMcNeese StateSt. Francis (PA)
(2) UCLALong Beach StateMissouriSacramento State
(15) Texas A&MBaylorHoustonPrairie View
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #58 
To be clear, my referencing it was not an endorsement.... Hofstra as a host is hallucinogenic
d4cohn

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Reply with quote  #59 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ice_man
I do not see how Pitt’s RPI will jump 5 spots to surpass Notre Dame. Their ACC “run” consisted of beating two relatively weak teams with lower RPI’s before losing to FSU. Notre Dame beat a relatively stronger ACC team (Boston College #53) before losing to FSU. If you want to give Pitt credit for losing on a walk off, don’t you then have to discount them for winning on a walk off against a weaker team in the tournament? Lastly, I am pretty sure Pitt has very few (maybe only one) top 50 wins, while Notre Dame has seven. That being said, I believe that both teams will get in, and USF will be out.


For Pitt to make up 5 spots in the RPI rankings, Pitt doesn't necessarily have to jump up 5 spots. Notre Dame could also move down too. But perhaps, in retrospect, it is too large of a gap to make up.

Regarding top wins though, here is a breakdown of some of the best wins for both teams:

Notre Dame: 

Two wins over Minnesota, one over Michigan (neutral-site)
Road sweep of Louisville
1 win out of 4 against Florida State
Win over FIU (No. 56)

Pittsburgh:
One neutral site win against Wisconsin and Illinois 
Win over FIU (No. 56)
1 win out of 4 against Florida State
Home sweep of Louisville (one game rained out)

Certainly, neutral site wins over Minnesota and Michigan (likely No.2 seeds) are much better than Wisconsin and Illinois (likely bubble teams that will miss the tournament), but otherwise, there is no daylight in their top wins. But as I said, the Big 10 Conference as a whole was down this year, and as such, wins against Minnesota and Michigan mean less this year than say, last year. Therefore, I would place more emphasis on Pitt's better form over the last month than three wins from the second week of the season.
d4cohn

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Reply with quote  #60 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


Lefty referenced a website called Behind the Plate earlier end they have all 3 teams IN.  Dont get how that's possible.  Not sure who else they excluded. 

(1) OregonTexasDrakeAlbany
(16) HofstraAuburnPittsburghFordham
(8) South CarolinaJames MadisonLibertyBoston University
(9) TennesseeOhio StateUNC GreensboroMiddle Tennessee
(5) WashingtonNorthwesternBYUUI- Chicago
(12) AlabamaMichiganNotre DameJacksonville State
(4) FloridaCaliforniaSouth FloridaBethune-Cookman
(13) GeorgiaMinnesotaKennesaw StateOhio
(3) OklahomaTexas StateWichita StateDePaul
(14) ArkansasOklahoma StateTulsaNorth Dakota State
(6) Arizona StateOle MissCal State FullertonMonmouth
(11) ArizonaKentuckyBoise StateNew Mexico State
(7) Florida StateMississippi StateOregon StateHarvard
(10) LSULouisianaMcNeese StateSt. Francis (PA)
(2) UCLALong Beach StateMissouriSacramento State
(15) Texas A&MBaylorHoustonPrairie View


Florida Gulf Coast, it appears.
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