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midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #31 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogsDad
Is 15-28 NC St really getting top 25 votes? Cmon man.


That has to be a mistake.  Simply not possible.

I just checked and NC St was swept, at home, by ND last weekend.  Again - not possible.  I expect some type of correction or clarification.  They meant Oregon State??  Oklahoma State??  Very strange to say the least.  
jayrot

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Reply with quote  #32 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


That has to be a mistake.  Simply not possible.  


Can 13-30 GT start getting some votes then too?
olddawg

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Reply with quote  #33 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


Almost too silly to refute.  I was referring to UCLA's FIVE home losses, including a three game sweep by Utah.  RPI has UCLA ahead of Utah.  Pollsters have common sense. Cheers to you as well.  


Same kind of common sense that puts Minnesota ahead of Washington to whom they have lost twice?

Half of the coaches who have a vote pass it off to a low level assistant who spends very little time with it.

I had a similar semi-Sharp discourse with 3LT near the end of last season regarding Oregon.  They were in the top 5 or so in the polls.  They were Number 9 or so in RPI at the end of the regular season.  I said that they should be seeded about #9.  He thought a lot higher.  They did not wind up at OKC.  That meant that #9 was about right.

Similar thing is going on with Minnesota this year.  High in polls...a lot lower in RPI.  RPI is likely to be a lot closer to where they end up at the end of the season.  Not a guarantee, but a high likelihood.

I am a big fan of Coach Allister and Minnesota.  That does not change reality, though.
AnotherSBFan

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Reply with quote  #34 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogsDad
Is 15-28 NC St really getting top 25 votes? Cmon man.


I know in college bball and football I've seen people post the results of who voted for whom. Additionally it shows the number of votes at each position each team received. I wish there was a link like that for softball
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #35 
Not to belabor the point but NC State (obviously) received no votes last week.  So to think that they went from receiving no votes one week to receiving five votes the next week after getting swept at home by Notre Dame is either one of the great mysteries of the universe, or some type of typo/human error.  Using Occam's razor...
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #36 
Quote:
Originally Posted by olddawg


Same kind of common sense that puts Minnesota ahead of Washington to whom they have lost twice?

Half of the coaches who have a vote pass it off to a low level assistant who spends very little time with it.

I had a similar semi-Sharp discourse with 3LT near the end of last season regarding Oregon.  They were in the top 5 or so in the polls.  They were Number 9 or so in RPI at the end of the regular season.  I said that they should be seeded about #9.  He thought a lot higher.  They did not wind up at OKC.  That meant that #9 was about right.

Similar thing is going on with Minnesota this year.  High in polls...a lot lower in RPI.  RPI is likely to be a lot closer to where they end up at the end of the season.  Not a guarantee, but a high likelihood.

I am a big fan of Coach Allister and Minnesota.  That does not change reality, though.


I am sorry but you are factually inaccurate.  Oregon was number 4 in the final poll last year.  They were seeded 5th, not 9th.  Does not matter that they did not make it to OKC.  They were seeded 5th.  

Obviously if MN and Washington had nearly identical records, WA would be ranked higher than MN.  

But thank you for that great example.  Oregon 4th in the polls last year, 9th in RPI, and they were seeded 5th.  That is the best predictor of where MN will end up if they take care of business.  

Anyway, time will tell.  

MadDogsDad

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Reply with quote  #37 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp
Not to belabor the point but NC State (obviously) received no votes last week.  So to think that they went from receiving no votes one week to receiving five votes the next week after getting swept at home by Notre Dame is either one of the great mysteries of the universe, or some type of typo/human error.  Using Occam's razor...


Belabor away. but just to clarify, one person could have voted them 21 in error and they would get 5 votes. Maybe they meant to vote UNC instead of NC St. who knows. Just found it a bit comical.

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midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #38 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogsDad
Belabor away. but just to clarify, one person could have voted them 21 in error and they would get 5 votes. Maybe they meant to vote UNC instead of NC St. who knows. Just found it a bit comical.


They did beat Elon 9-0 midweek.  That explains it.  
olddawg

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Reply with quote  #39 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


I am sorry but you are factually inaccurate.  Oregon was number 4 in the final poll last year.  They were seeded 5th, not 9th.  Does not matter that they did not make it to OKC.  They were seeded 5th.  

Obviously if MN and Washington had nearly identical records, WA would be ranked higher than MN.  

But thank you for that great example.  Oregon 4th in the polls last year, 9th in RPI, and they were seeded 5th.  That is the best predictor of where MN will end up if they take care of business.  

Anyway, time will tell.  



Correct. I did not check prior to posting.  4th in polls. 9th in RPI.  Seeded 5th.  Did not make it to OKC, thus they were not in the top 8 when all was said and done.  RPI was spot on. Polls and seeding were not as accurate a predictor of how they would finish.

Time will tell indeed, and I would love to see them make a deep run at OKC, but there is a much higher likelihood of Minnesota finishing the season closer to the late season RPI than to the polls, regardless of where they are seeded.
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #40 
Quote:
Originally Posted by olddawg


Correct. I did not check prior to posting.  4th in polls. 9th in RPI.  Seeded 5th.  Did not make it to OKC, thus they were not in the top 8 when all was said and done.  RPI was spot on. Polls and seeding were not as accurate a predictor of how they would finish.


So by that logic you agree that Florida was also not one of the top 8 teams last year??   RPI wasn't so spot on with them?? 

No need to respond.  I do get what you are saying.  
olddawg

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Reply with quote  #41 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


So by that logic you agree that Florida was also not one of the top 8 teams last year??   RPI wasn't so spot on with them?? 

No need to respond.  I do get what you are saying.  


That is exactly why they still play the game.  There are exceptions to every rule.  Florida last year was indeed a glaring exception. One pitch and one swing away from moving on.
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #42 
Quote:
Originally Posted by olddawg


That is exactly why they still play the game.  There are exceptions to every rule.  Florida last year was indeed a glaring exception. One pitch and one swing away from moving on.


And my guess is that if I went back to check on the UCLA v Oregon series last year, it would be fairly similar.  One pitch.  One swing.  Hardly some sort of validation that the RPI was correct and the polls were wrong.  

In fact I did just check.  Oregon won 8-1 on Saturday, and then UCLA won two 2-1 games on Sunday. In the first game on Sunday, Oregon took a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 7th.  UCLA homered to tie, and then won it in the 9th.   Razor thin margin.  Again - probably one pitch from advancing.  

Anyway, I do appreciate the discussion. Obviously I am emotionally invested in the Gophers this year and hope that they end up with a top 8 seed. The Oregon example from last year gives me reason to be optimistic.
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #43 

Quote:
Originally Posted by olddawg


Correct. I did not check prior to posting.  4th in polls. 9th in RPI.  Seeded 5th.  Did not make it to OKC, thus they were not in the top 8 when all was said and done.  RPI was spot on. Polls and seeding were not as accurate a predictor of how they would finish.

Time will tell indeed, and I would love to see them make a deep run at OKC, but there is a much higher likelihood of Minnesota finishing the season closer to the late season RPI than to the polls, regardless of where they are seeded.

Last year's selection top 16 RPI, and final finish in bracket

1. UF, 12.5
2. Michigan, 5.5
3. Oklahoma, 1
4. Alabama, 7.5
5. Auburn, 2
6. FSU, 3.5
7. James Madison, 12.5
8. Washington, 12.5
9. Oregon, 12.5
10. ULL, 12.5
11. LSU, 3.5
12. Missouri, 12.5
13. Baylor, 24.5
14. Tennessee, 24.5
15. UCLA, 7.5
16. Kentucky, 24.5

olddawg

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Reply with quote  #44 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

 

Last year's selection top 16 RPI, and final finish in bracket

1. UF, 12.5
2. Michigan, 5.5
3. Oklahoma, 1
4. Alabama, 7.5
5. Auburn, 2
6. FSU, 3.5
7. James Madison, 12.5
8. Washington, 12.5
9. Oregon, 12.5
10. ULL, 12.5
11. LSU, 3.5
12. Missouri, 12.5
13. Baylor, 24.5
14. Tennessee, 24.5
15. UCLA, 7.5
16. Kentucky, 24.5



I knew you were out there somewhere.

Thanks for taking the time to look it all up.

midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #45 
Well at least the RPI was accurate as regards Missouri.  
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #46 

Quote:
Originally Posted by midwestfp


And my guess is that if I went back to check on the UCLA v Oregon series last year, it would be fairly similar.  One pitch.  One swing.  Hardly some sort of validation that the RPI was correct and the polls were wrong.  

In fact I did just check.  Oregon won 8-1 on Saturday, and then UCLA won two 2-1 games on Sunday. In the first game on Sunday, Oregon took a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 7th.  UCLA homered to tie, and then won it in the 9th.   Razor thin margin.  Again - probably one pitch from advancing.  

Anyway, I do appreciate the discussion. Obviously I am emotionally invested in the Gophers this year and hope that they end up with a top 8 seed. The Oregon example from last year gives me reason to be optimistic.
midwest... first, I LOVE coach Allister. My DD was fortunate enough to have her virtually to herself for catching stations at a camp hosted by FSU six years ago. High-impact stuff.

I think the only thing that has possibly held them back is the degree that SaraG gets ridden during a year leaves her possibly a little worn by late May. In 2015 and 2016, she averaged 4.01 IP per game played by the Gophers. This year, she is at 2.98. Massive difference, IMO

And they have a more dynamic offense too, led by that freshman.

This definitely could be their year, and if they win out, including the Big Ten tournament, I think they host both rounds if they advance

 

midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #47 
Thanks 3LT.  Agree with everything you just said.  Sara G was overused the last two years.  Fiser and Finucane have made a huge difference this year.  The Gophers number 2 pitcher for the last two seasons transferred to Indiana State where she has a 2-10 record and an era around 5.  Great kid and I don't mean to rip on her, merely trying to illustrate the drop off that existed.  

Surprised that you think they host twice if they win out.  I was under the impression that you thought they would barely hold on to a 15 or 16 seed.  

Also... it is not just coach Allister.  The two assistants are phenomenal, and no my daughter is not on the team.  
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #48 
I just think that if they win out, that will include a sweep of Wisconsin, and possibly wins over Illinois and Michigan.

But I DO think that a loss could be devastating, too, because their RPI is GOING to be dragged by the ridiculously awful upcoming schedule.

I think 8 is possible, and I think that 17 is, too.... I know... weird
midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #49 
You have mentioned wins over Michigan AND Illinois before but that is simply not possible.  If the Gophers win out, they will be the one seed in the Big 10 tourney.  That is guaranteed.  And a one seed cannot play the 2 and 3 seeds in the same tournament, because 2 will play 3 in the semifinals (if seeding holds).  
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #50 
Good point....who knows. Selection day is a little like xmas.... can't wait
3leftturns

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Reply with quote  #51 
BTW... how about Nebraska? 0-10 start, and 19-12 since
RahOKU

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Reply with quote  #52 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

 

Last year's selection top 16 RPI, and final finish in bracket

1. UF, 12.5
2. Michigan, 5.5
3. Oklahoma, 1
4. Alabama, 7.5
5. Auburn, 2
6. FSU, 3.5
7. James Madison, 12.5
8. Washington, 12.5
9. Oregon, 12.5
10. ULL, 12.5
11. LSU, 3.5
12. Missouri, 12.5
13. Baylor, 24.5
14. Tennessee, 24.5
15. UCLA, 7.5
16. Kentucky, 24.5



Something I think stands out is the number of teams in the final RPI top 8 that didn't make it to OKC -- Florida (RPI-1), JMU (7) and Washington (8) -- nearly half. Also, the number of teams in the final RPI 9-16 that didn't make it to a Super Regional -- Baylor (13), Tennessee (14) and Kentucky (16).



olddawg

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Reply with quote  #53 
2016 Tournament Finish, Selection RPI, Selection ESPN Poll, Selection NFCA POLL

Finish                              Selection RPI       Selection ESPN       Selection NFCA
1 Oklahoma                        3                        3                           3
2 Auburn                            5                        5                           5
3 LSU                                 11                      12                         10
3 FSU                                 6                        7                           7
5 Michigan                          2                        2                           2
5 Georgia                           18                      19                          15
7 UCLA                               15                      13                          14
7 Alabama                          4                        6                            6
9 UF                                   1                        1                            1
9 JMU                                 7                       8                             8
9 Washington                      8                        14                          12
9 Oregon                            9                        4                             4
9 Missouri                           12                      16                           17
9 ULL                                 10                       9                             9
9 Utah                                27                      --                            25
9 Arizona                            22                       22                          18
17 Kentucky                        16                      11                           13
17 Tennessee                      14                       10                          11
17 Baylor                            13                       17                           21


RPI  11 out of 19 within 3 slots of final finish
ESPN Poll  7 out of 19 within 3 slots of final finish
NFCA Poll  7 out of 19 within 3 slots of final finish






MadDogsDad

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Reply with quote  #54 
Why the arbitrary number 3? Just curious
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olddawg

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Reply with quote  #55 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogsDad
Why the arbitrary number 3? Just curious


3 seems to be the lowest number with any real measure of correlation all around.  Other than that, just plucked from thin air and very arbitrary.
Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #56 
Midwestfp, you are correct that last year the NCAA Tournament selections and seeding were pretty close to the final polls. However, last year the polls and the RPI were quite similar. 

This year (at this point), there are 2 teams whose RPI is very different than its ranking in the polls (as to whether they would project to host a Super Regional)
Minnesota is #5 in both polls and #11 in RPI
UCLA is #13 and #14 in the polls and #6 in RPI.

Twice in recent years there has been a team whose RPI was quite different from their poll rankings:

2014 Georgia was ranked #14 in the final poll before selections and their RPI was #2
2015 Oklahoma was ranked #5 in the final polls before selections and their RPI was #14.

In both cases the Committee clearly went more with the RPI. UGA was seeded #4 in 2014 despite their ranking of #14 in the polls. Oklahoma was seeded #11 in 2015 despite their ranking of #5 in the polls. We Alabama fans remember it well as we hosted them in what became an epic Super Regional.

The Committee could change their approach but if history is an indication, you should hope Minnesota gets up to no lower than #9 in the RPI if they want that top 8 seed.

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midwestfp

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Reply with quote  #57 
Thanks for the background, Bama.  In contrast, though, there was the Oregon example from last year.  There just isnt much we can do about our RPI for the rest of the year.  Perhaps teams we have beaten like LSU, Oregon state, Texas, California and Illinois can go on epic runs.  I assume if those teams start going up in RPI, then so will we??  

I have to admit that the 2015 Oklahoma comparison makes me very nervous.  
olddawg

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Reply with quote  #58 
"Also... it is not just coach Allister.  The two assistants are phenomenal, and no my daughter is not on the team."


Amen to that.  They are a great group.
jayrot

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Reply with quote  #59 
Quote:
Originally Posted by olddawg
"Also... it is not just coach Allister.  The two assistants are phenomenal, and no my daughter is not on the team."


Amen to that.  They are a great group.


Wouldn't mind seeing GT hire Merchant.  Doubt it'd ever happen, but I'd love to see it.
Bama_CF

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Reply with quote  #60 
Oregon was #9 in RPI last year and the team they bumped out of the top 8 was Washington, who was #8 (and who they swept).

What Minnesota can do is not lose any games. If they win all and win Big Ten tourney, I don't see how they could not be a top 8 seed at 54-3.  

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