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GrizzlyFan

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Reply with quote  #1 
AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
DOLLAR HITS 14-YEAR HIGH

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If Obamacare is such a good thing, why did he have to lie about it to get it passed?
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #2 
"Sorry to keep you waiting. Complicated business." Make sure to turn up your volume, the soundtrack adds a nice touch.


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"Global weakness is provocative."
fhoenix

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Reply with quote  #3 
Global economy 101
A strong dollar means our currency can buy more foreign country goods and services. Cheaper to buy from outside than within since dollar is always just worth a dollar within usa borders.
A strong dollar does not benefit citizens of us unless you are travelling out of the country and you get an extra few cents from your dollar spent.
A weak dollar means our currency buys less foreign products and service and we have to rely on those from within. It benefits the country.
A weak dollar also means exports are more competitive in global market and a boon for us jobs. It helps blue collar americans. Strong dollar helps white collar americans.

Weak currency of foreign competitors means us manufacturers have trouble competing. They drop their prices and we have to drop to keep up.
When a large trading partner (our largest) like China artificially keeps it currency weak, it hurts the balance of payments, meaning its goods are cheaper than domestically produced products.
My friend created a tabletop game. The components cost 67% less to be made in china. Turned a $99 game into $49 plus around 10% more profit. Most toys and games are made in china or at least many of their parts. Was like that when i was a kid.

Melania's line has 838 products. 628 are made overseas--354 of those china. It makes good business sense. During election she removed those lines from QVC and ger website. 
I used her as an example but Ellens and oprahs stuff is also from china and india etc.. We live in a global market..not just our town, city, state, and country. 
Celebrating strong dollar for joe six-pack in chicago is same as him celebrating cubs winning world series. Feels good, feels like "i won too", but a week later while shoppoing or pumping gas he realize everything is same as it was a week ago. As a traveller it is nice when dollar is up...sucks when it is down and you money exchange. Sucks hard

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #4 
Not much to argue with there. It's my understanding that a strong dollar also helps to curb inflation, and to help depress the price of oil.
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"Global weakness is provocative."
keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #5 
Maybe someone should stick a sock in the fat democrat candidate's mouth when they say they are at war with coal producers. Very stoopid strategy, as stoopid as Watergate talk 40 years after the fact. Defeat the war on coal and proceed with Keystone
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"This is not debate class. And this is not about politeness. We're talking about the damn future of our country"

"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #6 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fhoenix
Global economy 101
A strong dollar means our currency can buy more foreign country goods and services. Cheaper to buy from outside than within since dollar is always just worth a dollar within usa borders.
A strong dollar does not benefit citizens of us unless you are travelling out of the country and you get an extra few cents from your dollar spent.
A weak dollar means our currency buys less foreign products and service and we have to rely on those from within. It benefits the country.
A weak dollar also means exports are more competitive in global market and a boon for us jobs. It helps blue collar americans. Strong dollar helps white collar americans.

Weak currency of foreign competitors means us manufacturers have trouble competing. They drop their prices and we have to drop to keep up.
When a large trading partner (our largest) like China artificially keeps it currency weak, it hurts the balance of payments, meaning its goods are cheaper than domestically produced products.
My friend created a tabletop game. The components cost 67% less to be made in china. Turned a $99 game into $49 plus around 10% more profit. Most toys and games are made in china or at least many of their parts. Was like that when i was a kid.

Melania's line has 838 products. 628 are made overseas--354 of those china. It makes good business sense. During election she removed those lines from QVC and ger website. 
I used her as an example but Ellens and oprahs stuff is also from china and india etc.. We live in a global market..not just our town, city, state, and country. 
Celebrating strong dollar for joe six-pack in chicago is same as him celebrating cubs winning world series. Feels good, feels like "i won too", but a week later while shoppoing or pumping gas he realize everything is same as it was a week ago. As a traveller it is nice when dollar is up...sucks when it is down and you money exchange. Sucks hard

Your since of economics is exactly zero.  Strong dollar makes gas cheap.  Makes shopping cheap as well.  

China's illegal manipulation of the currency has allowed them both to push it higher than it should be and lower.  The run both sides to their advantage.  We can, should and will offset that advantage with reasonable trade agreements.

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #7 
Some nice memories from the campaign trail. 

[mFcRCa] 


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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #8 
Not a rayyyciist:
[1479359176668] 

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PDad

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
Your since of economics is exactly zero. (hyperbole much?) Strong dollar makes gas cheap.  Makes shopping cheap as well.  
FTR, fhoenix contradicted himself on those points within his post.

China's illegal manipulation of the currency has allowed them both to push it higher than it should be and lower.  The run both sides to their advantage.  We can, should and will offset that advantage with reasonable trade agreements.

I agree. China controls the exchange rates for its currency and ideally it is strong with suppliers and weak with customers/competitors. Once upon a time (e.g. WWII), there were inconsistencies in exchange rates where people could make money by 1) buy currency A, 2) use A to buy currency B and finally sell B for a profit. That has largely gone away with today's markets, however China doesn't let its currency float on the market. 

If China's manipulation is illegal, as you posted, there should be means to curtail it now with existing agreements. However, people have let it go on due to prioritizing the benefits of cheaper prices over the longer term consequences of hollowing out our manufacturing. The real issue is having the political will to stop letting it go and judiciously use existing means to curtail it.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #10 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad

I agree. China controls the exchange rates for its currency and ideally it is strong with suppliers and weak with customers/competitors. Once upon a time (e.g. WWII), there were inconsistencies in exchange rates where people could make money by 1) buy currency A, 2) use A to buy currency B and finally sell B for a profit. That has largely gone away with today's markets, however China doesn't let its currency float on the market. 

If China's manipulation is illegal, as you posted, there should be means to curtail it now with existing agreements. However, people have let it go on due to prioritizing the benefits of cheaper prices over the longer term consequences of hollowing out our manufacturing. The real issue is having the political will to stop letting it go and judiciously use existing means to curtail it.

Currency manipulation remains super important.  Currency manipulation was a major factor in the recessions of the 1920s and 1930s and eventually led to WW1.  

In the 1920's competitive devaluation of currencies took off in a viscous cycle.  As one country would dump their currency on to the market to drive the price down, all the others had to properly respond.  

Currency manipulation put additional pressures on systems as WW2 started as well.  After WW2 the IMF was founded and the IMF has used international coordination to thwart aggressive currency manipulation. 

China was held out by every America president from achieving specific status with US.  I do not currently recall which one it was.  Maybe G20, or a certain level in the IMF, P5 or something like that.  They were withheld from that status due to their aggressive currency manipulation.  

Obama being the feckless leader he is let China have that status in an attempt to lead from behind.  Obama truly believed that you had to give things away and when you did that the other party would feel obligated to give you things.  Only China, and most of the world took their free things from Obama and laughed at the US for having such a dope for a president.

Currently china is manipulating their currency to the stronger side.  They are doing this by restricting wealthy investors and businesses from exporting currency.   As China's economy slowed money wanted to leave China aggressively, as it should.   By artificially keeping money from leaving, the Chinese are propping up their own market at the expense of everyone else.

Smart people would punish a trading partner for such behavior using trade pacts.  This is what I mean by legal means. 

My comment on zero, was It did not appear Terp even realized she had self contradicted.  If someone has any understanding they typically do not do that. 



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PDad

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Reply with quote  #11 
Terp? It was fhoenix...

FWIW, my WWII example was US pilots in Burma doing their transactions in multiple countries to take advantage of discrepancies between different markets.

"Smart people would punish a trading partner for such behavior using trade pacts."

As I posted, they aren't because they're ignoring the long-term harm and/or lack the political will. For example, "Free" traders rail against Trump's tariff threats because it's a tax that raises costs. IMO, a believable threat of a tariff is akin to a strong military being a deterrent to hostile actions by other countries.
fhoenix

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Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist

Your since of economics is exactly zero.  Strong dollar makes gas cheap.  Makes shopping cheap as well.  

China's illegal manipulation of the currency has allowed them both to push it higher than it should be and lower.  The run both sides to their advantage.  We can, should and will offset that advantage with reasonable trade agreements.



You are incorrect.
Try looking at international finance news, global marketing, and pay attention to what happened with dollar dipping and rising the past 50 years. I did. I also lived outside the usa while serving and travel abroad often. Strong currency is not win win. Never has been. It is mixed based on who you are. Exporters get the shaft. Importers get profit. COnsumers of foreign good benefit as do travellers. Those hosting travel or selling goods get the shaft. That is how econ works. A win in an area is a loss somewhere else. Outsourcing jobs is not a win for jobs in americ but it is for the company doing it.

From business online--
Quote:
-The spike in the dollar and in Treasury yields could choke growth off before it really gets going.

And while Wall Street has ridden the "Trumpflation" wave to new highs, emerging market stocks, bonds and currencies have slumped as higher U.S. yields lure investors away and push up borrowing costs for firms and households with dollar debt.

Joachim Fels, a managing director and global economic advisor at Pimco, which oversees more than $1.5 trillion in assets, warned that emerging markets may be in for a bumpy ride and that the U.S. economy could be vulnerable.

"It's reaching its limits because if you get too much dollar appreciation it feeds back negatively into U.S. growth and particularly hurts the manufacturing sector, and these are Donald Trump's voters, so I think there is a certain limit," said Fels.

 

Exporting takes a hit. Obviously if importing gets a boon. 
Caterpillar does over 61% of it's business abroad yet is a us company. ..mostly in china. Strong dollar did not help their sales but let them buy source materials better as well as set up factories in other countries. They operate in another country and use us dollars where overseas the increase helps 9at home the dollar worth 25 cents more means nothing since the increase is measured against other currency not itself. 

Of course, for smaller U.S. exporters that don’t have the wherewithal to build factories overseas or go to the ends of the earth for the cheapest materials, a stronger dollar spells bad news.

And gas.....Gas is not based on us dollar overseas--It is based on cruse oil and Relations with saudi, Asia cutting back on, and north americ production up effects us now. Weather (summer grade- winter grade and holiday pricing) , refineries closing and opening (Maintence-Demand) , seasons, and where you are located in usa also effects gas prices (location, location, location). Hawaii gas prices suck. Gas stations around the usa are not lowering their prices because the dollar is stronger globally. The companies still buy from their source who buys from their source, who gets a little more for their dollar that is profit.

From Fortune---
Quote:
The effects of a strong dollar are so complex that even the nation’s most powerful economists cannot agree on what it means. But as long as you’re not an exporter, it might be a good idea to look on the bright side. Now is a great time to take that trip you’ve been thinking about and watch how far your U.S dollars can go.

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EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #13 
It amuses me to see someone write out a lengthy diatribe about their 'I traveled abroad often' expertise on what a strong dollar means, and this quote is the lynch pin of their 'argument'. lol

"The effects of a strong dollar are so complex that even the nation’s most powerful economists cannot agree on what it means."

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"Global weakness is provocative."
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #14 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad
Terp? It was fhoenix...

FWIW, my WWII example was US pilots in Burma doing their transactions in multiple countries to take advantage of discrepancies between different markets.

"Smart people would punish a trading partner for such behavior using trade pacts."

As I posted, they aren't because they're ignoring the long-term harm and/or lack the political will. For example, "Free" traders rail against Trump's tariff threats because it's a tax that raises costs. IMO, a believable threat of a tariff is akin to a strong military being a deterrent to hostile actions by other countries.

fhoenix yes. 

Trump has basically already killed TPP something the Chinese were pushing to get.  He has already created a situation where the general assumption is that China's currency manipulation is automatically on the table.  That is what Trump is good at.  Creating preconceived negotiating positions.  Those positions are often positions are strength for his side.



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"I’m going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years." - Mattis
PDad

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Reply with quote  #15 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fhoenix
From business online--
The spike in the dollar and in Treasury yields could choke growth off before it really gets going.

And while Wall Street has ridden the "Trumpflation" wave to new highs, emerging market stocks, bonds and currencies have slumped as higher U.S. yields lure investors away and push up borrowing costs for firms and households with dollar debt.

Joachim Fels, a managing director and global economic advisor at Pimco, which oversees more than $1.5 trillion in assets, warned that emerging markets may be in for a bumpy ride and that the U.S. economy could be vulnerable.

"It's reaching its limits because if you get too much dollar appreciation it feeds back negatively into U.S. growth and particularly hurts the manufacturing sector, and these are Donald Trump's voters, so I think there is a certain limit," said Fels.


This covers another point I was going to make about the stronger dollar - it often rises with T-Bill rates. It also rises as a safe haven when their is economic concerns around the world.



Quote:
And gas.....Gas is not based on us dollar overseas--It is based on cruse oil and Relations with saudi, Asia cutting back on, and north americ production up effects us now. Weather (summer grade- winter grade and holiday pricing) , refineries closing and opening (Maintence-Demand) , seasons, and where you are located in usa also effects gas prices (location, location, location). Hawaii gas prices suck. Gas stations around the usa are not lowering their prices because the dollar is stronger globally. The companies still buy from their source who buys from their source, who gets a little more for their dollar that is profit.

US oil prices largely follow foreign prices, which are impacted by the strength of the dollar. In fact...

Oil rises on optimism over OPEC deal; stronger dollar caps gains

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/16/oil-prices-fall-on-us-crude-stock-build-opec-remains-in-focus.html

fhoenix

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Reply with quote  #16 
smh
I replied to several things not supporting any position in an argument.
Someone stated my economics was zero. That means none. In the reply to that (quoted) I gave that I have spent time outside the usa (which matters for seeing the effect of a strong or weak usa dollar in a foreign market. I never stated I was an expert but to disagree with me and say they have 0 in the topic is just trying to be insulting. 

I gave examples from different sources on strong dollar and it's effects. Good and bad.  Do not assume all the experts are from this nation. While the most powerful experts in america disagree on what a strong us dollar means the experts from outside this nation agree it is a boon and bane. The sources are experts from within and outside usa. It wasn't a Linchpin even if amusing.

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PDad

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Reply with quote  #17 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
Trump has basically already killed TPP something the Chinese were pushing to get.

WTF?! The Chinese weren't involved in TPP, are pushing their own deal and countries are now looking at it with the demise of TPP - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/17/australia-signals-support-for-chinese-led-trade-deals-to-replace-tpp. Note: I'm not advocating TPP, just setting the record straight.

Quote:
He has already created a situation where the general assumption is that China's currency manipulation is automatically on the table.  That is what Trump is good at.  Creating preconceived negotiating positions.  Those positions are often positions are strength for his side.

I realize that. I hope you didn't write this as a rebuttal to my post, because it isn't.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #18 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fhoenix



You are incorrect.
Try looking at international finance news, global marketing, and pay attention to what happened with dollar dipping and rising the past 50 years. I did. I also lived outside the usa while serving and travel abroad often. Strong currency is not win win. Never has been. It is mixed based on who you are. Exporters get the shaft. Importers get profit. COnsumers of foreign good benefit as do travellers. Those hosting travel or selling goods get the shaft. That is how econ works. A win in an area is a loss somewhere else. Outsourcing jobs is not a win for jobs in americ but it is for the company doing it.

From business online--

 

Exporting takes a hit. Obviously if importing gets a boon. 
Caterpillar does over 61% of it's business abroad yet is a us company. ..mostly in china. Strong dollar did not help their sales but let them buy source materials better as well as set up factories in other countries. They operate in another country and use us dollars where overseas the increase helps 9at home the dollar worth 25 cents more means nothing since the increase is measured against other currency not itself. 

Of course, for smaller U.S. exporters that don’t have the wherewithal to build factories overseas or go to the ends of the earth for the cheapest materials, a stronger dollar spells bad news.

And gas.....Gas is not based on us dollar overseas--It is based on cruse oil and Relations with saudi, Asia cutting back on, and north americ production up effects us now. Weather (summer grade- winter grade and holiday pricing) , refineries closing and opening (Maintence-Demand) , seasons, and where you are located in usa also effects gas prices (location, location, location). Hawaii gas prices suck. Gas stations around the usa are not lowering their prices because the dollar is stronger globally. The companies still buy from their source who buys from their source, who gets a little more for their dollar that is profit.

From Fortune---

Agree with EG. 

I was not saying China is manipulating down or manipulating up.  They are manipulating both ways.  Currently as we speak they are restricting cash from leaving their country and this is manipulating up.

In general on the micro level those economists are arguing it is hard to pin down the particular input that currency exchange has on the prices of items.  

That does not keep us from understanding the overall impact of currency manipulation and what that has caused in the past.  



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"I’m going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years." - Mattis
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #19 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad

WTF?! The Chinese weren't involved in TPP, are pushing their own deal and countries are now looking at it with the demise of TPP - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/17/australia-signals-support-for-chinese-led-trade-deals-to-replace-tpp. Note: I'm not advocating TPP, just setting the record straight.


I realize that. I hope you didn't write this as a rebuttal to my post, because it isn't.

There was a push by Obama to put China in TPP.  That was what initially led to Trump claiming any discussion of additional trade agreements with China, must include their currency manipulation and how that can be constrained.  

If you remember (sorry don't have the dates, too busy at work right now), Trump started a discussion about having a strong trade manufacturing structure that favored manufacturing in Mexico, South America, Canada, and USA.  That preferential trade that created manufacturing benefits in Mexico would be something that we could do to greatly strengthen Mexico, and thereby strengthen our border.  

At the tail end of that conversation is when the China in the TPP stuff started coming from Obama.  It was Obama's retort to Trump.  The world should be open.  If he had it his way China would be in TPP.  To which Trump responded by making it clear to the American people how endless trade deals with an unfair partner like China is a bad deal.  

That America is wrong for making trade deals like the did 20 years ago when the American was clearly the dominate economy.  That America is no longer the dominate economy and should negotiate fair trade deals based on 'on the ground' realities of where things stand today.

Anyway that is how I remember that all playing out. Yes china is making deals with trade partners all the time.  So are we.

I was definitely no replying to your statement.  Just a more general comment.

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"I’m going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years." - Mattis
PDad

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Reply with quote  #20 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
There was a push by Obama to put China in TPP. (??) ...  

If you remember (sorry don't have the dates, too busy at work right now), Trump started a discussion about having a strong trade manufacturing structure that favored manufacturing in Mexico, South America, Canada, and USA.  That preferential trade that created manufacturing benefits in Mexico would be something that we could do to greatly strengthen Mexico, and thereby strengthen our border.  
(I recall this)

At the tail end of that conversation is when the China in the TPP stuff started coming from Obama.  It was Obama's retort to Trump.  The world should be open.  If he had it his way China would be in TPP.  To which Trump responded by making it clear to the American people how endless trade deals with an unfair partner like China is a bad deal.  

I don't recall Obama pushing for China to be in TPP in response to Trump. You need to substantiate that and/or your earlier claim China pushed for TPP.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #21 
Ford decides to keep auto plant in US, instead of moving it to Mexico.

Apple moving iphone manufacturing back to the United States.

Boy that did not take long.

Why would anyone ever consider going back to the democratic ways?

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"I’m going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years." - Mattis
PDad

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Reply with quote  #22 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
Ford decides to keep auto plant in US, instead of moving it to Mexico.

Apple moving iphone manufacturing back to the United States.

Boy that did not take long.

Easy there...

Ford decided to keep that plant open in 2015 and sealed it with a major investment in it. The good news is they've decided to keep a product there that was moving to Mexico. 

Apple asked their suppliers back in June to look at manufacturing in the US due to public pressure. There's no indication yet what Apple is going to do.

Manufacturing cost is not the only reason companies are shifting production to Mexico - they can also use Mexico's far more favorable trade pacts to export to other countries instead of having them subject to tariffs (e.g. 10%, 20%). The US needs to renegotiate its trade pacts to level the playing field.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #23 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad

Easy there...

Ford decided to keep that plant open in 2015 and sealed it with a major investment in it. The good news is they've decided to keep a product there that was moving to Mexico. 

Apple asked their suppliers back in June to look at manufacturing in the US due to public pressure. There's no indication yet what Apple is going to do.

Manufacturing cost is not the only reason companies are shifting production to Mexico - they can also use Mexico's far more favorable trade pacts to export to other countries instead of having them subject to tariffs (e.g. 10%, 20%). The US needs to renegotiate its trade pacts to level the playing field.

https://theamericanrevenant.com/2016/11/18/silicon-valley-bends-the-knee-apple-to-relocate-iphone-assembly-to-america/



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"I’m going to plead with you, do not cross us. Because if you do, the survivors will write about what we do here for 10,000 years." - Mattis
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #24 
PDad I think UWa is aware of the nuances of those stories. He likes to roll stuff like that out as completely factual so he can chum dewey. Don't be nibbling at the dewey bait. Don't you remember UWa's classic thread where he had hillary abandoning her candidacy cuz she cancelled a couple of events? Genius. Except I think mike got chummed on that one.......
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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #25 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad

Easy there...

Ford decided to keep that plant open in 2015 and sealed it with a major investment in it. The good news is they've decided to keep a product there that was moving to Mexico. 

Apple asked their suppliers back in June to look at manufacturing in the US due to public pressure. There's no indication yet what Apple is going to do.

Manufacturing cost is not the only reason companies are shifting production to Mexico - they can also use Mexico's far more favorable trade pacts to export to other countries instead of having them subject to tariffs (e.g. 10%, 20%). The US needs to renegotiate its trade pacts to level the playing field.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/799432403727028224

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #26 
And I owed you this on TPP. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-obama-the-tpp-would-let-america-not-china-lead-the-way-on-global-trade/2016/05/02/680540e4-0fd0-11e6-93ae-50921721165d_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-c%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.5e2de4e5bc29
I agree it does not directly state that Obama wants to add China to the TPP.  But the way Obama is making his case comes off as that the only possible option is to do trade deals with China. 

and here is Trump's position on China and Trade.
http://archive.is/MFTwq



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keepinitreal

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Reply with quote  #27 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyGrayce
UWa is aware of the nuances of those stories. He likes to roll stuff like that out as completely factual so he can chum dewey. Don't be nibbling at the dewey bait.


That chum gets bloody

Image result for chumming sharks

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"It is not just simply yelling out a name and yelling down dissenters........................... and I'll defend your right to even insult me" 
PDad

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Reply with quote  #28 

Relocating final assembly to the US would be a nice small gesture, however I still haven't seen an announcement from Apple they're doing anything yet.

http://www.northcrane.com/2016/11/17/it-is-happening-apple-in-talks-of-moving-manufacturing-to-the-usa/
PDad

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Reply with quote  #29 

Mr. Trump overplayed Ford’s decision in a tweet about the conversation he posted to his Twitter account Thursday night, suggesting Ford would no longer relocate a Lincoln plant from Louisville to Mexico. The Dearborn, Mich., company only wanted to move one model to Mexico in this case, and it never intended to close the Kentucky plant or cut jobs, according to company and union officials.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fords-change-on-kentucky-plant-is-an-olive-branch-to-donald-trump-administration-1479501654
TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #30 
Trump overselling something? Should surprise no one.
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