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bluedog

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Reply with quote  #151 
I was just quoting Trump........[biggrin]
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #152 
[CyhTiThUkAATkmj] 
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PDad

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Reply with quote  #153 
Globalization gets most of the attention for the loss of mfg jobs, however automation has also been a huge factor. However, I came to the realization last week that automation is also a major key to rebuilding mfg in the US so we can provide good jobs and compete with lower foreign wages. IIRC the US has lost 70k plants since 2000. The reasons are they couldn't compete with cheaper foreign products, so companies either replaced them offshore or exited the industry entirely. Ideally, the companies would have made the necessary investments in the US to make them competitive, however the business environment here has ranged from uncertain to downright hostile.

Last night's episode of 60 Minutes had a remarkable segment about how an area in MS is rebounding under the leadership of an economic developer, Joe Max Higgins - http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-mississippi-factory-jobs-joe-max-higgins/. They're aggressively developing, using and promoting their local business infrastructure to draw new mfg plants. Besides the long-term economic benefit of each plant's operations, there is also a large construction benefit to build the plants and their infrastructure. The tactics and drive Joe is employing to compete with other states need to be expanded across the country to compete with other countries.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #154 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad
Globalization gets most of the attention for the loss of mfg jobs, however automation has also been a huge factor. However, I came to the realization last week that automation is also a major key to rebuilding mfg in the US so we can provide good jobs and compete with lower foreign wages. IIRC the US has lost 70k plants since 2000. The reasons are they couldn't compete with cheaper foreign products, so companies either replaced them offshore or exited the industry entirely. Ideally, the companies would have made the necessary investments in the US to make them competitive, however the business environment here has ranged from uncertain to downright hostile.

Last night's episode of 60 Minutes had a remarkable segment about how an area in MS is rebounding under the leadership of an economic developer, Joe Max Higgins - http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-mississippi-factory-jobs-joe-max-higgins/. They're aggressively developing, using and promoting their local business infrastructure to draw new mfg plants. Besides the long-term economic benefit of each plant's operations, there is also a large construction benefit to build the plants and their infrastructure. The tactics and drive Joe is employing to compete with other states need to be expanded across the country to compete with other countries.

I am a bit surprised you are just now realizing that automation is such a big part.  Just look at the image below if a typical automobile manufacturing line and realize that those all used to be people, and they are now robots.  One human that pushes a button.  The rest of the 'jobs' are cleaning up after the robots, and cleaning and caring for the robots. 

Automation is also another reason that plants may start to move back to the United States.   For instance the iphone was notoriously difficult to automate as it required a lot of small fragile modules to be placed.  In 2014 Foxconn  the main producer of iphones started getting a lot of labor issues.  Employees were complaining about getting decent hours, training, healthcare, and education for their children.  There was a rash of suicides and the company was getting a lot of pressure from Apple to quite things down.  They had already been investing heavily in automation on the iphone, the labor issues pushed them to go into high gear.  Almost every year from 2006-2014 foxconn would hire 100k people.  

Last year 2015 foxconn laid off 70k workers and increased their overall production significantly.  Large amounts of the iphone production have now successfully been automated. 

When the percentage of labor costs versus overall costs drop, it means wage levels are less important. 

I think there is a dangerous element in the US that is a part of this point the finger at automation.  That is the part that carry what you are saying to 3 or 4 levels to far.  They theorize that since automation is taking all the jobs and only a few people own the robots that therefore those few people now have to share their wealth with everyone else.

Not sure where all this ends up, the future is always hard to predict.  For now there are numerous jobs that are not that easy to automate.  Welding is a great example.  While production welding on cars or refrigrators might be going to the robots, there are more and more welding bridges, buildings and still plenty of welding that is not getting automated anytime soon.  

I like the Mike Rowe Works stuff in this regard.  There are millions of youth out here right now that feel compelled to go to a college, despite the fact that they are not really college material.  They accumulate mass amounts of debt.  They struggle to graduate.  Once they graduate they find themselves in jobs they hate. 

He is forwarding an agenda "the world is full of very happy septic-tank cleaners and miserable investment bankers".  http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/11/mike-rowe-of-dirty-jobs-on-the-simple-reason-trump-won-the-working-class.html 

I know a person that recently graduated in Sociology from USC.  She had 152k in debt and was working a job that paid 40k a year.  We live in an area where social workers make pretty good money, but it is also very expensive to live.  She was basically going backwards.  Every year she owed a bit more money. 

I know another guy that dropped out of high school in montanna.  Came to our area, got a GED, got on interview with the iron workers union.  They paid for his certifications and he is make 60k a year, as happy as can be.  







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PDad

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Reply with quote  #155 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
I am a bit surprised you are just now realizing that automation is such a big part.  Just look at the image below if a typical automobile manufacturing line and realize that those all used to be people, and they are now robots.  One human that pushes a button.  The rest of the 'jobs' are cleaning up after the robots, and cleaning and caring for the robots. 

Automation is also another reason that plants may start to move back to the United States. ...

You obviously missed my points since we're basically in agreement. I've long understood how automation has been an under-reported factor in the reduction of mfg jobs since I do a lot of work in that area. My realization was how automation is a key to overcoming lower foreign wages so we can rebuild our mfg base.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #156 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad

You obviously missed my points since we're basically in agreement. I've long understood how automation has been an under-reported factor in the reduction of mfg jobs since I do a lot of work in that area. My realization was how automation is a key to overcoming lower foreign wages so we can rebuild our mfg base.

Yes, 100% agreement then.  Sorry I misread your post. 

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #157 
here is a picture of the Foxconn facility with suicide nets in place. 

they work 14 hour days 6 days a week normal.  That gets extended to 7 days a week when they need 'overtime'.  

The run of china and foxconn dominating electronics manufacturing is under a lot of pressure.  Korea has captured 30% of iphone manufacturing and that number is growing.  A lot of this kind of work is moving to Tiawan as well.   China is outsourcing everything it can, a lot to brazil. 

Without unfair/unchecked currency manipulation, and a little help from central planning in china, they would already be feeling the pressure.


[7sawv09xss1y] 

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mikec

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Reply with quote  #158 
I had read somewhere that Apple made iphones in China for a couple reasons: proximity of natural resources, proximity of plants making each of the components (plants were stacked up like assembly lines, each producing a major component), and flexibility.

One POTUS, I think Clinton but I can't remember, had a talk with their CEO, and asked him why he wouldn't move manufacturing back here.  He said something to the effect of the above.

If I remember correctly, he cited an example of how he didn't like the design of the outer glass on the iPhone, as he felt it would scratch too easily.  A whole plant was geared up to make the glass.  Apple redesigned it, and still needed to make public launch dates.  The whole factory was retooled in something like a week, and began producing some ridiculous number of glass parts per day.  He cited that as an example of something that couldn't get done in the US, as there would have to be permits, clearances, certificates of occupancies, etc, all of which would take a few months to obtained, even if the plant could be retooled quickly.  He said then that is why he chose China.

Many people thought the labor cost was the reason, but he said that the labor component of a $600 iPhone was minimal, and averaged over the many millions of them that they made, labor cost wasn't an issue.

Anyways, if all of the above is true (I think I remember it pretty accurately, because it struck me when I read it at the time), it is an example of our regulatory environment holding us back.

It seems like it wouldn't take huge changes to our structures to bring some of this back.  OTH, the sunk investment overseas is so huge, maybe it's not possible.

If it comes back, it should come to right-to-work states, as opposed to union states, so things can get done.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #159 
An oldie but a goodie from Trump. 

[image] 



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steelman

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Reply with quote  #160 
Today President elect Donald Trump cancelled a Boeing order for the new Air Force 1. Price tag was 4 billion dollars. Evidentally the price tag was too high. 
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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #161 
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelman
Today President elect Donald Trump cancelled a Boeing order for the new Air Force 1. Price tag was 4 billion dollars. Evidentally the price tag was too high. 

Initially the program was to cost $1.65 billion, it is now estimated at $4 billion, and constant asks for increases.  

Trump is out to prove that he has the taxpayers interest in mind.  That needlessly overpaying for these planes is not in Americas best interest. 

He owns between $50 and $100K of Boeing stock.  

He also has a number of personal planes.  All of Trumps planes are old by by Billionaire status.  Most of these guys fly around on planes a few years old.  Trumps planes are all 20 years old.  

I am hoping that Trump has learned to do a lot with very little.  That when his businesses hit those super lean years, he learned how to get by on limited cash flows, and can now bring that thinking to the US government.  Of course the government is super challenging. 

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mikec

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Reply with quote  #162 
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelman
Today President elect Donald Trump cancelled a Boeing order for the new Air Force 1. Price tag was 4 billion dollars. Evidentally the price tag was too high. 



He urged cancellation of the order.  As POTUS-elect, he can't do much of anything.  Like it or not, we have one POTUS at a time.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #163 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikec



He urged cancellation of the order.  As POTUS-elect, he can't do much of anything.  Like it or not, we have one POTUS at a time.

Yeah, maybe.  You have to imagine the Boeing guys are scrambling right now, correct?

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bluedog

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Reply with quote  #164 
Trump urged??

Oh, OK!      

Let 'em build that plane and see what happens!    [rofl]
mikec

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Reply with quote  #165 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist

Yeah, maybe.  You have to imagine the Boeing guys are scrambling right now, correct?


I am sure they laid an egg.
TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #166 
They only profited 2.28 billion last quarter, and just signed a 31.2 billion defense contract, so yeah, I am sure they are cancelling lunch.
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Originally Posted by Fresh
The truth is, you WANT Bill to have raped her, so you believe it.
PDad

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Reply with quote  #167 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
Trump is out to prove that he has the taxpayers interest in mind.  That needlessly overpaying for these planes is not in Americas best interest. That would be great, however that tweet may be retaliation for what the Boeing CEO said in an article published today. I'd like to see him set an example by not filling all 4,100 appointments.

He owns between $50 and $100K of Boeing stock.  Reportedly sold it in July.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/06/trumps-boeing-attack-follows-article-with-ceos-pro-trade-argument.html

Donald Trump's Tuesday morning criticism of Boeing closely followed the publishing of a story in which the aerospace giant's CEO expressed concerns about the trade agenda Trump has backed.

The Chicago Tribune published a column Tuesday morning which included Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg's recent comments arguing that free trade is a crucial part of the U.S. economy. Boeing has a lucrative jet business in China.

Muilenburg expressed concerns about resistance to trade, which is partly driven by Trump repeatedly slamming the Trans-Pacific Partnership and North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump appealed to many blue-collar voters by saying those deals cost Americans jobs and depressed their wages.

Only 22 minutes after the article published, Trump threatened on Twitter to "cancel" Boeing's contract for new Air Force One jets, arguing that an unconfirmed $4 billion cost was too high for the project.

There is no clear indication that the Tribune story, or another Washington Post article about Pentagon waste, specifically prompted Trump's attack. Still, he has used his favorite social media platform repeatedly in the past to respond to coverage he views as unfavorable.

TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #168 
Agreed on China - they are looking at a $1 Trillion contract to build over 7,000 planes.

Good to see Trump following in Obama's footsteps...

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fresh
The truth is, you WANT Bill to have raped her, so you believe it.
bluedog

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Reply with quote  #169 
Good to see Durden's stilll, well..............!     [rofl]
TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #170 
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/12/06/trump-rips-boeing-for-cost-overruns-on-new-air-force-one-says-cancel-order.htm.html

Trump may have some precedent if he ultimately decides to nix the Boeing deal. President Obama in 2009 canceled the program to replace Marine One when the cost of the 28-helicopter fleet ballooned from $6.1 billion to $13 billion.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fresh
The truth is, you WANT Bill to have raped her, so you believe it.
bluedog

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Reply with quote  #171 
You oughta know, Obama's your guy........[thumb]
TheNarrator

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Reply with quote  #172 
That's definitely your go to lie yellow - you can do better than that.  Sad.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fresh
The truth is, you WANT Bill to have raped her, so you believe it.
uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #173 
It seems to me this is more about this cost overrun.  Not the 4100 appointments comment.  Also not the push back on TPP or NAFTA.  

Boeing in the past has pushed for inbound tax protection from Airbus claiming that the European governments are undercutting Boeing by heavily tax subsidizing Airbus.   I want to see Boeing sell planes into China as much as possible.   But we also need to adress the unfair trade practices as a part of any deals. 

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PDad

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Reply with quote  #174 
Quote:
Originally Posted by uwApoligist
It seems to me this is more about this cost overrun.  Not the 4100 appointments comment.  Also not the push back on TPP or NAFTA.

The costs are a moving target because they're still determining capabilities/functionality. It would be a lot cheaper if they just put the same capabilities on the new planes, however they're looking at what they can upgrade.

The Boeing CEO only mentioned trade. The 4,100 appointment comment was mine. 
spazsdad

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Reply with quote  #175 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedog
You oughta know, Obama's your guy........[thumb]

If only Blueballs momma would cut off his internet like they did to Assange.

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#SCOTUS

uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #176 
[T5IAvzv] 
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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #177 
[0ui7Jj] 
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mikec

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Reply with quote  #178 
You like posting pics of The Donald's girlfriend, I see.
EarlyGrayce

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Reply with quote  #179 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikec
You like posting pics of The Donald's girlfriend, I see.


Seems creepy coming from a self-professed man of god. 

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uwApoligist

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Reply with quote  #180 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikec
You like posting pics of The Donald's girlfriend, I see.

Just for you:
[ChelseaClinton] 


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