Ultimate College Softball
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment   Page 2 of 3      Prev   1   2   3   Next
PDad

Registered:
Posts: 3,532
Reply with quote  #31 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa
Also, the NPF will likely release players, including third basemen, to play in the Olympics.

Assuming the NPF is still operating in 2020, I expect at least half the Olympic roster will be NPF players - especially if LA doesn't get the 2024 games.
Kurosawa

Registered:
Posts: 2,576
Reply with quote  #32 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Trying to figure why Kelsey Stewart isn't playing 2B


So, you want to dump Aguilar? [confused]
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #33 
OK, that was a hiccup... definitely not.... I guess I am looking at that backup INF position
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #34 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad

Assuming the NPF is still operating in 2020, I expect at least half the Olympic roster will be NPF players - especially if LA doesn't get the 2024 games.
Even if L.A. gets it in 2028, I would guess softball stays on the program through then at least, no?
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #35 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurosawa


So, you want to dump Aguilar? [confused]
To me, Aguilar is the most impressive member of the team.

From being the only HS player on the Juniors team in 2013 to now... nothing but the highest quality
PDad

Registered:
Posts: 3,532
Reply with quote  #36 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Even if L.A. gets it in 2028, I would guess softball stays on the program through then at least, no?

I don't share your optimism about Paris adding softball. Baseball/Softball and the other 4 sports were not added as on-going sports. They were added for just the 2020 games at the request of Tokyo as part of a new program giving hosts some flexibility a la demonstration sports.
https://www.olympic.org/news/ioc-approves-five-new-sports-for-olympic-games-tokyo-2020

The Organising Committee for the Tokyo 2020 Games proposed the five new sports in response to the new flexibility provided by Olympic Agenda 2020.

Today’s vote was the culmination of a two-year process that began with the unanimous approval of the IOC’s strategic roadmap in 2014. The recommendation to give Organising Committees the flexibility to propose new sports for their edition of the Games was intended to put even more focus on innovation, flexibility and youth in the development Olympic programme.

Tokyo 2020, the first Organising Committee able to take advantage of the change, submitted its proposal for the five new sports to the IOC in September 2015.
...
The additional sports in Tokyo will not impact the athlete or event quotas of existing Olympic sports or be binding on future host cities. The current athlete and event quotas are unaffected.

3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #37 
France pretty tight with us. We'll see
PDad

Registered:
Posts: 3,532
Reply with quote  #38 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
France pretty tight with us. We'll see

haha I think it will come down to whether they already have venues and/or there are other sports they'd prefer.
ChinMusic

Registered:
Posts: 518
Reply with quote  #39 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
To me, Aguilar is the most impressive member of the team.

From being the only HS player on the Juniors team in 2013 to now... nothing but the highest quality


"I agree with you 3LT" he said painfully.
1janiedough

Registered:
Posts: 2,350
Reply with quote  #40 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChinMusic
"I agree with you 3LT" he said painfully.



Lmao!
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #41 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChinMusic


"I agree with you 3LT" he said painfully.
LOL
lovsofbal

Registered:
Posts: 1,399
Reply with quote  #42 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDad

haha I think it will come down to whether they already have venues and/or there are other sports they'd prefer.


Like wine tasting?
PDad

Registered:
Posts: 3,532
Reply with quote  #43 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovsofbal
Like wine tasting?

and rhythmic wine tasting
and synchronized wine tasting
HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #44 
<< Pile of swill. >> (3LT)

My goodness... you can be a grouchy old fart sometimes.

<< You cannot teach what Jenna Lilley does at 3B. >> (3LT)

Well... she didn't come out of the womb - knowing how to play third base that way.
She was taught all the fundamentals - then put in thousands of reps... 
and has played hundreds of games and thousands of innings... 
and developed into the player she is today.

Btw... Lilley was a shortstop in high school.
She began her career at Oregon at third base - and has stayed there for three seasons. 
At some point, she did have to LEARN HOW to play third base (after moving from SS).

Her stats as a player at Oregon are interesting. Her offensive numbers have steadily decreased each year.
She started off as a freshman world beater on offense - but has been in decline since that first season.

Year ..... BA ...... OPB ..... SLG ..... OPS ..... EBH ..... R ..... RBI ..... SB .... CS
2015 -- .427 --- .539 ---- .659 --- 1.148 ---- 24 ---- 60 ---- 44 ----- 16 ---- 2
2016 -- .326 --- .478 ---- .476 ---- .954 ---- 21 ---- 35 ---- 33 ------ 4 ---- 2
2017 -- .258 --- .402 ---- .355 ---- .757 ---- 11 ---- 27 ---- 26 ------ 3 ---- 0

Do you (or anyone else) have any idea why she has gone downhill so dramatically on offense..?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Her defensive stats are equally interesting...

Year ...... G ...... PO ....... A ...... E .......TC ...... TC/G ...... Fld%
2015 --- 59 ----- 33 ----- 81 ---- 6 ---- 120 ----- 2.03 ---- .950
2016 --- 53 ----- 35 ----- 73 ---- 4 ---- 112 ----- 2.11 ---- .964
2017 --- 61 ----- 34 ---- 157 --- 12 --- 203 ----- 3.33 ---- .941

Based on those stats... 
her sophomore season was an improvement over her freshman year...
as she fielded a few more balls - and cut her errors down from 6 - to just 4.
Then this last season... all of a sudden - she got to a LOT MORE Balls - and made a LOT MORE plays.
Unfortunately, along with all those many more balls she handled - her errors tripled from 4 to 12. 
But that jump from 2.11 TC per game to 3.33 per game is a quantum leap.

Just based on these defensive stats - it appears that Lilley became a very good defensive third baseman pretty quickly - after shifting from SS. And then after being at the position for a couple of years... she has taken a big step forward in her ability to get to more batted balls (which takes her to another level). 

Either that... or opposing teams went crazy on bunt attempts against her this past season. 
But that would be seem to be counter intuitive - as bunting more against an excellent defensive player would be a poor strategy.
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #45 
SS in high school... in Ohio???!!!

A whole lot of 2.6-to-first to shut down on the hot corner in the Buckeye State rec ball (I dunno how many times Hoover went up against Alexis Mack's team, but I doubt it. LOL).

When did she play anything but 3B for the four years she played 18 Gold with Conroy's Bandits?

Graduating a three-time Pac PiOY with 1,100 Ks is gonna up the chances and the Es.

If there is a tougher more fearless kid out there--after getting facialed against Stanford in 2016 and missing only the next weekend--I have not seen her.

That play against Japan... that happens all the time with her, and it can't be taught. Phenomenal lateral range up close.

If a team has a one-run lead late against a team, and there is no Lilley or the also-excellent Cooper at the hot corner and only a MI square peg in the triangle hole, you are asking for trouble.

HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #46 
<< And, UF putting Ocasio at 3B is NOT the opposite.
There was no other option defensively or offensively. Was a win-win for them >> (3LT)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No other option???!!! What are you talking about??
The player who had played almost ALL of the Florida innings at third base - was obviously - an option.

I will explain this for you...

Jaimie Hoover was the regular starting third baseman for Florida for the vast majority of the 2017 season. From the beginning of the season through February, March and April... she started almost every game at third base (and played almost every inning at third base for Florida). She had a TON more experience at playing third base in NCAA softball games - than Ocasio had. Through the end of April - Ocasio had played in just four games in which she had played more than ONE INNING at third base for Florida (there were 4 other games in which she had come in to play third base for one inning). 

Before May of 2017... Ocasio had started just 4 games at third base for the Florida softball team. She did not have any in 2015 or 2016.

So... which of those two players was the more reasonable choice to be playing defense at third base for Florida when it mattered most..??

Weren't you one of the people that was just whining about how - you can't afford to play some inexperienced player at third base (just to get a stronger bat in the lineup...??

Well... THAT is exactly what Florida decided to do.

They dropped Hoover from the starting lineup - because her batting had dropped off (she ended up with a .210 BA). 

They replaced Hoover in their lineup with Chelsea Herndon (to play OF in place of where Ocasio would have been). 

Florida began this exchange in early May (5/3 through 5/11). In their first six games of May, Florida started Ocasio at third base (sat Hoover) and put Herndon in the batting lineup in place of Hoover. Herndon responded by going 6 for 16 with a HR and a double. In the one game that Hoover started during this period, she went 0 for 2. 

Interestingly... Florida decided to go back to Hoover at third base when the NCAA tournament began. She started the first 5 games of the tournament - but did not get a single hit in any of those games. Then Florida was facing Alabama for the crucial third game of the super regional... and that is when they made the final move to leave Hoover out of the lineup. In the final six games of the playoffs... Hoover did not get a single at bat. And the ONLY TIME she got on the field - was at the start of the last game (when Ocasio was the starting pitcher). Hoover was gone as soon as Ocasio was taken out as the pitcher (with one out in the second inning). 

So... WHEN IT MATTERED MOST... Florida chose to play a VERY inexperienced player at third base... 
TO TRY AND GET A STRONGER BAT IN THEIR LINEUP.

If THAT is not the opposite of deciding to leave a veteran defensive player in your lineup (despite the fact that she is struggling with the bat)... THEN WHAT IS...??? 
HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #47 
<< Trying to figure why Kelsey Stewart isn't playing 2B >> (3LT)

<< So, you want to dump Aguilar? [confused] >> (Kurosawa)

<< OK, that was a hiccup... definitely not.... >> (3LT)

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yo, Leftster...

You would be wise to take notice how other people didn't call your post SWILL - or PATHETIC... 
even when you f---ed up.

You don't HAVE TO insult people - just because you might disagree... or see something differently.


outofzone

Registered:
Posts: 651
Reply with quote  #48 
HLA, interesting post in response to 3left. You always have good facts no doubt. But I think you're over thinking the whole Hoover/Ocasio thing. Hoover didn't look too far removed her freshman year @ Fla from her travel ball days. She was big & slow in travel with more of a reputation at the plate than anything.  She proved she couldn't hit college pitching & had 6 errors playing an incomplete schedule @ 3rd base. Ocasio, while less experienced at 3rd, had 1 error total while playing their full schedule, mostly in RF. She batted a full 100 pts better than Hoover. I'd put Ocasio at 3rd in front of Hoover EVERY game I could for the sole reason she is 10X more athletic than Hoover on her best day. And great athletes make great plays. Currently, Hoover has an above avg arm, is too slow to the ball & can't hit. Your analysis, at least in this case, is a bit much. Florida was/is a better team with Ocasio @ 3rd. 
IMO.
I enjoy your posts.
HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #49 
<< She proved she couldn't hit college pitching & had 6 errors playing an incomplete schedule @ 3rd base. >> (outofzone)

I can agree that Hoover's hitting failed to impress.
However - 6 errors at third base when she started close to 60 games at the position (and played almost every inning of those games) is not a bad stat.

I am certainly not trying to put Hoover in some kind of "excellent defensive third baseman" light. 
That is not part of this point - at all.

I was never advocating that Hoover should have been playing instead of Ocasio at third base.
I would certainly have made this exact same move. It was a good decision by Florida, imv. 

++++++++++++++++++++++

The point of my post - was that when Florida did make that move... 
they were basically doing the opposite of...
"a team choosing to play a defensive third baseman - over an inexperienced player moving to third base who has a BETTER BAT".

While Hoover may not be a defensive star at third base... 
she had WAY WAY more experience at playing the position - than Ocasio had.

Florida chose to play a defensive novice at the position - rather than a player with a TON more experience (who was weak with the bat).

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually... this Florida/Ocasio third base switch - makes my point that you can switch a player to third base - and have them be able to do a good job even after relatively little playing time. Ocasio did just that.

So... those arguing that the USA team shouldn't be trying to develop some stronger bats at third base - should take note of what Ocasio did.
It certainly can be done. Teams have been making this type of move - for a long time.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

<<  I'd put Ocasio at 3rd in front of Hoover EVERY game I could for the sole reason she is 10X more athletic than Hoover on her best day. And great athletes make great plays. >> (outofzone)

Me too.
outofzone

Registered:
Posts: 651
Reply with quote  #50 
Fair points, thanks
Fresh

Registered:
Posts: 736
Reply with quote  #51 
Moving a SS to 3rd base is absolutely no problem. The learning curve will usually be short. Don't overestimate the "unique" skills inherent in playing third. Reading the hitter is the prime component and that is equally important at SS. 3rd Base has to hit. No hit, expect another player to take your spot that can. 
HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #52 

<< When did she (Jenna Lilley) play anything but 3B for the four years she played 18 Gold with Conroy's Bandits? >> (3LT)

I do not have any information on what positions Jenna Lilley played in any of her seasons for the 18 Gold Bandits games (or any other youth traveling teams she may have played with). If you have such info - and would like to share it with us - go ahead. It would be interesting to see when she actually began playing third base. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

<< If there is a tougher more fearless kid out there--after getting facialed against Stanford in 2016 and missing only the next weekend--I have not seen her.

That play against Japan... that happens all the time with her, and it can't be taught. Phenomenal lateral range up close. >> (3LT)


I have not been following Jenna Lilley's career. I have only seen her play when the post season comes around and Oregon happens to be on TV (or the USA team). I did not even remember that she had been hit in the face against Stanford in the 2016 season. I am guessing it was a line drive while she was playing defense at third base. Is that what happened?

This information about her getting hit in the face with a softball... leads me to believe that the extreme trauma from such an injury - probably has a lot to do with her drop off in offensive production since it happened. The damage that this type of head/face trauma causes can be much more than just a physical injury. There can be long lasting emotional trauma, mental trauma... and deep psychological scarring.

I am speculating on all of this... but it might be that she has even suffered some type of ongoing vision problems from that head trauma. A player can still see a batted ball well enough to make a quick reaction and get their glove on a play... with less than great vision. But getting that round bat to meet up with that round ball at the perfect instant in time... is a much more demanding job for the eyes to handle. 

Sometimes... it does not matter how "fearless" you are - or how hard you work to get back to where you were before that injury... 
There are many players who have never been the same after a severe ball to the head/face trauma. 

I wish all the best to Jenna Lilley - and I hope she can find a way to recapture the batting abilities she once had.  

HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #53 

<< Graduating a three-time Pac PiOY with 1,100 Ks is gonna up the chances and the Es.  >> (3LT)

That was a nice try, 3leftturns... but nope, it wasn't the strikeouts. Oregon actually had more strike outs from their team pitching staff in the 2017 season than they had from their 2016 season (411 to 407).

But it was the pitching staff that made the biggest part of the difference (it just wasn't the strikeouts). Turns out that besides Cheridan Hawkins being an excellent strikeout pitcher - she was also a huge fly ball pitcher. In her 174.1 IP from the 2016 season, Hawkins had 164 fly ball outs compared to just 84 ground ball outs.

The 2017 Oregon pitching staff did not have any pitcher that was close to what Hawkins had been in terms of a fly ball to ground ball ratio. Losing all of those fly ball outs when Hawkins graduated - resulted in a huge number of additional ground ball outs in 2017.

The Oregon pitching staff had 508 ground ball outs in the 2017 season. They had 373 ground ball outs in the 2016 season. That is 135 more ground ball outs in the 2017 season.

So... that is the main reason Jenna Lilley had a quantum leap in assists in 2017. It was the quantum leap in the number of ground balls that the Oregon pitching staff put into play (compared to how it had been in the previous seasons when Hawkins had been their main pitcher).

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Here are the pitching staff numbers for Oregon in the three years that Lilley has been on the team:

Year......... IP ....... SO ........ GO ....... FO

2015 ---- 370.0 --- 420 ----- 336 ----- 323

2016 ---- 373.0 --- 407 ----- 373 ----- 299

2017 ---- 401.1 --- 411 ----- 508 ----- 249

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Here are the Assist totals for the Oregon regular infielders in 2017:

Player......... Games ...... Assists

1B Camuso --- 60 ---------- 10

2B Lindvall --- 60 --------- 123

SS Udria ------ 62 --------- 113

3B Lilley ------ 61 --------- 157

P Staff -------- 62 ---------- 87

------------------------------------

Totals -------- 62 ---------- 490

 

Based on their assist totals, we can allocate 2% of the ground ball outs to 1B, 25% to 2B, 23% to SS, 32% to 3B and 18% to P. Yes, I know all assists do not result from go, but this gives us a pretty good idea.

Since there were 135 more gb outs in the 2017 season (compared to the 2016 season)... we can divide those up between the infield positions based on the percentages above.

So Lilley would be expected to have approximately 43 more assists than she had in the 2016 season (32% of those extra 135 go) based solely on the different type of pitching staff Oregon had in 2017.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

But... that additional 43 assists (based on the gb/fb pitching staff difference) does not cover the huge increase that Lilley had in assists in 2017. Her assists total went from 73 in 53 games in 2016... to 157 in 61 games in 2017. 
That was an increase of 84 assists.

Year ......... G .........Assists ......... A/60G
2015 ------ 59 -------- 81 ----------- 82.4
2016 ------ 53 -------- 73 ----------- 82.6
2017 ------ 61 ------- 157 --------- 154.4

After adjusting for the number of games played... Lilley still had 72 more assists in 2017.
73 - 43 = 29. 
So there are still 29 more assists that she had in 2017 that are not accounted for by pitching staff gb/fb ratio. 
Jenna still had a big jump forward in the number of balls she fielded in the 2017 season... 
even after taking the pitching staff effect into account. 

Kurosawa

Registered:
Posts: 2,576
Reply with quote  #54 
Quote:
Originally Posted by HenryLouisAaron
I have not been following Jenna Lilley's career. I have only seen her play when the post season comes around and Oregon happens to be on TV (or the USA team). I did not even remember that she had been hit in the face against Stanford in the 2016 season. I am guessing it was a line drive while she was playing defense at third base. Is that what happened?

This information about her getting hit in the face with a softball... leads me to believe that the extreme trauma from such an injury - probably has a lot to do with her drop off in offensive production since it happened. The damage that this type of head/face trauma causes can be much more than just a physical injury. There can be long lasting emotional trauma, mental trauma... and deep psychological scarring.

I am speculating on all of this... but it might be that she has even suffered some type of ongoing vision problems from that head trauma. A player can still see a batted ball well enough to make a quick reaction and get their glove on a play... with less than great vision. But getting that round bat to meet up with that round ball at the perfect instant in time... is a much more demanding job for the eyes to handle. 

Sometimes... it does not matter how "fearless" you are - or how hard you work to get back to where you were before that injury... 
There are many players who have never been the same after a severe ball to the head/face trauma. 

I wish all the best to Jenna Lilley - and I hope she can find a way to recapture the batting abilities she once had.  



Or opponents have figured out her offensive weaknesses and are more consistently targeting them. As a freshman, she was an unknown quantity; not so now.
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #55 

Offensively, she isn't matching up on that team, though she has zero strikeouts and her OPS is better than a couple players who are Pan Am active. That's stipulated.

And if Top 5 gets the job done at the PanAm, the U.S. could randomly pick nine kids from that roster or the juniors roster and would get that done against that field.

But, against a Japan, it would be nuts to not have a monster defensive third baseman active, even if they don't start.

And, again, Jenna made at least five plays of the ilk of that Japan play (https://twitter.com/BostonBruinsTID/status/883513555131047936) this season.

Kids on the infield with the greatest range (baseball...softball.... whatever) have more errors. Period. And her range is off the charts.

I'm sure that the U.S. will protect themselves at that spot when they are again in an event that has a team that can likely threaten them.

PDad

Registered:
Posts: 3,532
Reply with quote  #56 
Quote:
Originally Posted by HenryLouisAaron

<< When did she (Jenna Lilley) play anything but 3B for the four years she played 18 Gold with Conroy's Bandits? >> (3LT)

I do not have any information on what positions Jenna Lilley played in any of her seasons for the 18 Gold Bandits games (or any other youth traveling teams she may have played with). If you have such info - and would like to share it with us - go ahead. It would be interesting to see when she actually began playing third base.


I don't know when she began playing 3B, however PGF box scores on Pointstreak show Jenna playing 3B for Conroy in 2011-2014. Here's her 2011 profile with links to box scores - http://d15k3om16n459i.cloudfront.net/baseball/player.html?playerid=187043.

HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #57 
<< And, again, Jenna made at least five plays of the ilk of that Japan play (https://twitter.com/BostonBruinsTID/status/883513555131047936) this season. >> (3LT)

I saw that play when it happened - and, yes, it was an awesome play.

The thing I find interesting about watching the replays you posted above - is this: Check out where Jenna is positioned before the pitch (and as the ball is being hit by the batter). Watch the second video - which shows the play from behind the third baseman (looking in from the LF area). Lilley is positioned with her right foot only about a foot away from third base line. That seems a lot closer to the line than I would expect - for someone who has her fantastic range laterally to her left and right. If she had been positioned say three feet from the line - that would have been a much more routine play... and I think she could still cover the line pretty easily - with her great lateral range. 

I bring this up - because someone had suggested that positioning is one of the things that a veteran third baseman will have as a big advantage over players who are much newer to the position. Just wondering how the rest of you see Lilley's positioning on that particular play? Was she in the most optimal position as the ball was being hit? Or would you rather see her perhaps a step further from the line (closer to second base)..?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

<< against a Japan, it would be nuts to not have a monster defensive third baseman active, even if they don't start. 
Kids on the infield with the greatest range (baseball...softball.... whatever) have more errors. Period. And her range is off the charts. >> (3LT)

I agree with both of these points above. 
HenryLouisAaron

Registered:
Posts: 489
Reply with quote  #58 
<< Or opponents have figured out her offensive weaknesses and are more consistently targeting them. As a freshman, she was an unknown quantity; not so now. >> (Kurosawa)

That could be the case. But many times (if a player has some holes in their swing) teams find this out during that freshman season. 

It would make for an interesting study: looking to see how often a freshman batter had a great freshman season... and then her offensive numbers go steadily downhill in her second and third season. I have no idea how often that type of regression happens. 
3leftturns

Registered:
Posts: 10,748
Reply with quote  #59 

Had a 1.133 OPS after May 1

 

 

supernatural

Registered:
Posts: 182
Reply with quote  #60 
Quote:
Originally Posted by HenryLouisAaron

<< Graduating a three-time Pac PiOY with 1,100 Ks is gonna up the chances and the Es.  >> (3LT)

That was a nice try, 3leftturns... but nope, it wasn't the strikeouts. Oregon actually had more strike outs from their team pitching staff in the 2017 season than they had from their 2016 season (411 to 407).

But it was the pitching staff that made the biggest part of the difference (it just wasn't the strikeouts). Turns out that besides Cheridan Hawkins being an excellent strikeout pitcher - she was also a huge fly ball pitcher. In her 174.1 IP from the 2016 season, Hawkins had 164 fly ball outs compared to just 84 ground ball outs.

The 2017 Oregon pitching staff did not have any pitcher that was close to what Hawkins had been in terms of a fly ball to ground ball ratio. Losing all of those fly ball outs when Hawkins graduated - resulted in a huge number of additional ground ball outs in 2017.

The Oregon pitching staff had 508 ground ball outs in the 2017 season. They had 373 ground ball outs in the 2016 season. That is 135 more ground ball outs in the 2017 season.

So... that is the main reason Jenna Lilley had a quantum leap in assists in 2017. It was the quantum leap in the number of ground balls that the Oregon pitching staff put into play (compared to how it had been in the previous seasons when Hawkins had been their main pitcher).

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Here are the pitching staff numbers for Oregon in the three years that Lilley has been on the team:

Year......... IP ....... SO ........ GO ....... FO

2015 ---- 370.0 --- 420 ----- 336 ----- 323

2016 ---- 373.0 --- 407 ----- 373 ----- 299

2017 ---- 401.1 --- 411 ----- 508 ----- 249

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Here are the Assist totals for the Oregon regular infielders in 2017:

Player......... Games ...... Assists

1B Camuso --- 60 ---------- 10

2B Lindvall --- 60 --------- 123

SS Udria ------ 62 --------- 113

3B Lilley ------ 61 --------- 157

P Staff -------- 62 ---------- 87

------------------------------------

Totals -------- 62 ---------- 490

 

Based on their assist totals, we can allocate 2% of the ground ball outs to 1B, 25% to 2B, 23% to SS, 32% to 3B and 18% to P. Yes, I know all assists do not result from go, but this gives us a pretty good idea.

Since there were 135 more gb outs in the 2017 season (compared to the 2016 season)... we can divide those up between the infield positions based on the percentages above.

So Lilley would be expected to have approximately 43 more assists than she had in the 2016 season (32% of those extra 135 go) based solely on the different type of pitching staff Oregon had in 2017.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

But... that additional 43 assists (based on the gb/fb pitching staff difference) does not cover the huge increase that Lilley had in assists in 2017. Her assists total went from 73 in 53 games in 2016... to 157 in 61 games in 2017. 
That was an increase of 84 assists.

Year ......... G .........Assists ......... A/60G
2015 ------ 59 -------- 81 ----------- 82.4
2016 ------ 53 -------- 73 ----------- 82.6
2017 ------ 61 ------- 157 --------- 154.4

After adjusting for the number of games played... Lilley still had 72 more assists in 2017.
73 - 43 = 29. 
So there are still 29 more assists that she had in 2017 that are not accounted for by pitching staff gb/fb ratio. 
Jenna still had a big jump forward in the number of balls she fielded in the 2017 season... 
even after taking the pitching staff effect into account. 


This analysis is so laughably flawed I don't know where to begin.
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation: