3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490040061
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#1
Here's mine
Washington (1), Fresno State (30), Northwestern (38), Weber State (85) Alabama (2), Wisconsin (32), SIUE (48), Alabama State (229) Arizona (3), Mississippi State (27), Fordham (35), Grand Canyon (60) Texas A&M (4), Texas State (29), Arizona State (33), Marist (222) Baylor (5), Utah (20), Ole Miss (45), Albany (205) FSU (6), Georgia (17), McNeese State (42), FAMU (221) Auburn (7), Pittsburgh (31), Kennesaw State (46), Princeton (173) Oregon (8), Arkansas (25), Marshall (36), Omaha (131) Florida (9), North Carolina (28), FAU (43), Lehigh (160) UCLA (10), BYU (26), Cal Poly (37), Illinois State (62) Minnesota (11), Cal (18), Missouri (44), Valparaiso (162) James Madison (12), South Carolina (24), Louisville (40), Liberty (105) LSU (13), Texas (21), Louisiana (41), Villanova (147) Tennessee (14), Michigan (23), Lipscomb (47), UNCG (89) Oklahoma (15), Illinois (22), Tulsa (34), St. Francis (56) Ohio State (16), Kentucky (19), Notre Dame (39), Ohio (54)
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490282088
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#2
You think they would put the Cajuns in Baton Rouge? Also, that would be a nasty UCLA regional The combined 2-3 RPI in that spitballed Arizona regional is 62. But, I am guessing the Cats would take Fordham and Mississippi State over BYU and Cal Poly and their combined 63 any day of the week.
KYBandit
Registered:1373426472 Posts: 384
Posted 1490301703
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#3
Let's flip Georgia and North Carolina, number's work out better and it would be a better story line from Supers last year.
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490301975
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#4
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Originally Posted by KYBandit Let's flip Georgia and North Carolina, number's work out better and it would be a better story line from Supers last year.
They don't put two teams from same conference in the same regional, if you are suggesting UNC at FSU and Georgia at Gainesville....
Kurosawa
Registered:1273967438 Posts: 2,932
Posted 1490388009
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#5
Washington, Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA are going to get dinged for taking losses in a strong conference. None will be seeded in the top four, and only a couple, at best, inside the top eight (and thus able to host a super-regional).
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490388157
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#6
Huh? Couldn't disagree any more.
No, Washington will have to lose at least 8 games the rest of the way to exit the Top 4. The conference and Bama series are RPI concrete Intraconference losses have never hurt the SEC, and they won't kill Pac this year 1-2 Pac will be in the top 4
jayrot
Registered:1172105550 Posts: 17,372
Posted 1490389242
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#7
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Originally Posted by
3leftturns Huh? Couldn't disagree any more.
No, Washington will have to lose at least 8 games the rest of the way to exit the Top 4. The conference and Bama series are RPI concrete Intraconference losses have never hurt the SEC, and they won't kill Pac this year 1-2 Pac will be in the top 4
Who are your proposed 1-2 that will be in the top 4. I can't see UCLA being in the top 4. (Swept by Utah and I'd bet a few more series losses coming.) UW has the best shot, as long as they don't lose too many with Schreyer. Oregon with their weaker out of conference needs to show pretty strong in conference to find themselves in that 1-4 slot. AZ if they can show solidly in conference could easily get that 1-4 slot. I can't imagine 2 PACs in the 1-4 slots though with FSU, UF and maybe another SEC looming.
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490392360
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#8
2 Pacs if Arizona or Oregon play lights-out. Washington, barring what I would call an implosion, is a given Washington and Oregon play tough schedules down the stretch, including against Alabama and FSU Mucho RPI credit, with good performance
jayrot
Registered:1172105550 Posts: 17,372
Posted 1490395557
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#9
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Originally Posted by 3leftturns 2 Pacs if Arizona or Oregon play lights-out. Washington, barring what I would call an implosion, is a given Washington and Oregon play tough schedules down the stretch, including against Alabama and FSU Mucho RPI credit, with good performance
So you have 4 teams, two of them will probably be FSU and UF. One will probably be UW sans an improbable sweep by Bama. I think that third spot could be contested by Minnesota if they blaze through conference.
3leftturns
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Posted 1490395707
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#10
Minnesota RPI gonna get hurt They have FIFTEEN conference games remaining against teams with an average RPI of 118 The rest of their 7 conference games... the GOOD teams... average an RPI of 29.
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490395773
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#11
And, yes, that is what "1-2" would indicate. Washington, and maybe another.
jayrot
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Posted 1490395804
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#12
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Originally Posted by 3leftturns Minnesota RPI gonna get hurt
Yes RPI will get hurt, but this may be a case where the NCAA overlooks that RPI and bumps them up despite RPI. It isn't always so RPI rigid, but again it'd have to be a clear case for the NCAA.
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490396709
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#13
Better go 22-0. Just brutal
jayrot
Registered:1172105550 Posts: 17,372
Posted 1490396782
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#14
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Originally Posted by 3leftturns Better go 22-0. Just brutal
That's kind of what I was trying to infer. They might could handle one conference loss, but doubt it. Can Wisconsin derail Minnesota's top 4 hopes?
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490396976
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#15
THAT is why I had "1" as part of my range.... easily could plant Minnesota or a second SEC team in there Minnesota, with a loss in those 22 games, MIGHT need to win the Big Ten tourney to have a good shot at top 4
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490397063
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#16
And, Pac, at WORST 'will have a couple in the Top 8'
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490397292
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#17
Minnesota battles a little of what FSU faces as well... but 2 against UF, 3 against Oregon and 2 against South Carolina should inoculate them, barring a downturn
1janiedough
Registered:1307745541 Posts: 2,837
Posted 1490397916
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#18
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Originally Posted by 3leftturns And, Pac, at WORST 'will have a couple in the Top 8'
I agree with this, and possibly 3 in the top 8 depending on how Oregon AZ AND Washington play...even though they are all strong right now, who the hell really knows what will happen with Pac series possibly going topsy turvy due to the second tier team series.
BlueSky
Registered:1453490152 Posts: 796
Posted 1490398182
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#19
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Originally Posted by 1janiedough I agree with this, and possibly 3 in the top 8 depending on how Oregon AZ AND Washington play...even though they are all strong right now, who the hell really knows what will happen with Pac series possibly going topsy turvy due to the second tier team series .
Utah might show up.
__________________
1janiedough
Registered:1307745541 Posts: 2,837
Posted 1490398287
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#20
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Originally Posted by BlueSky Utah might show up.
Exactly! It is and has been coach Amy Hogue's goal to get her girls to OKC since she states it was one of the greatest experiences ever to be in the WCWS and wants them to feel that vibe.
jayrot
Registered:1172105550 Posts: 17,372
Posted 1490398480
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#21
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Originally Posted by
1janiedough Exactly! It is and has been coach Amy Hogue's goal to get her girls to OKC since she states it was one of the greatest experiences ever to be in the WCWS and wants them to feel that vibe.
So hope they get there. But can't see them being in the top 8. They'll have to do it through a super regional on the road.
jayrot
Registered:1172105550 Posts: 17,372
Posted 1490398555
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#22
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Originally Posted by 1janiedough I agree with this, and possibly 3 in the top 8 depending on how Oregon AZ AND Washington play...even though they are all strong right now, who the hell really knows what will happen with Pac series possibly going topsy turvy due to the second tier team series.
I cannot see the P12 not having 3 in the top 8. I imagine it will look something like 3 SEC 3 P12 1 ACC 1 Big12/B1G (Minnesota better work to make sure OU doesn't take their spot)
1janiedough
Registered:1307745541 Posts: 2,837
Posted 1490401173
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#23
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Originally Posted by jayrot I cannot see the P12 not having 3 in the top 8. I imagine it will look something like 3 SEC 3 P12 1 ACC 1 Big12/B1G (Minnesota better work to make sure OU doesn't take their spot)
Yes jayrot, my scenario is the same.
3leftturns
Registered:1352827572 Posts: 13,884
Posted 1490643668
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#24
RPI purity used for regional hosts, for 32 at-large teams and conference champs in this exerciseRegional scenario (most recent RPI at left, most recent after the slash)
Washington (1/1), Fresno State (33/30), Northwestern (37/38), Weber State (83/85) Alabama (7/2), Wisconsin (23/32), SIUE (49/48), Alabama State (247/229) Arizona (2/3), Mississippi State (27/27), Fordham (44/35), Grand Canyon (57/60) Texas A&M (9/4), Arizona State (28/33), Oklahoma State (41NEW), Marist (222/222) Baylor (8/5), Texas State (34/29), Ole Miss (43/45), Binghamton (166NEW) FSU (6/6), Georgia (18/17), McNeese State (61/42), FAMU (221/221) Auburn (5/7), Utah (22/20), Pittsburgh (40/31), Harvard (171NEW) Oregon (3/8), Arkansas (25/25), Marshall (29/36), North Dakota State (146NEW) Florida (4/9), North Carolina (31/28), FAU (45/43), Lehigh (147/160) UCLA (10/10), BYU (26/26), Cal Poly (48/37), Illinois State (51/62) Minnesota (11/11), James Madison (17/12), Missouri (36/44), Illinois-Chicago (164NEW) LSU (12/13), Texas (24/21), Louisiana (38/41), DePaul (155NEW) Tennessee (13/14), Illinois (30/22), Lipscomb (42,47), UNCG (94/89) Cal (14/18), Michigan (20/23), Louisville (39/40), Liberty (100/105)
Kentucky (15/19), Ohio State (21/16), Notre Dame (35/39), Ohio (50/54)
Oklahoma (16/15), South Carolina (19/24), Tulsa (32/34), St. Francis (53/56)
FROM 3/20 TO 3/27 IN THE BRACKET: Oklahoma State (at large replacing Lipscomb, which, in turn, replaced Kennesaw State as a conference champ), North Dakota State replacing Omaha, DePaul replacing Villanova, Illinois-Chicago replacing Valparaiso, Harvard replacing Princeton, Binghamton replacing Albany
Conference 'champs' placed based on highest RPI for this exercise
AT-LARGE (32) Pac-12: Arizona (2) Pac-12: Oregon (3) SEC: Auburn (5) SEC: Alabama (7)NEW replaces Florida SEC: Texas A&M (9) Pac-12: UCLA (10) SEC: LSU (12) SEC: Tennessee (13) Pac-12: California (14) SEC: Kentucky (15) Big 12: Oklahoma (16) SEC: Georgia (18) SEC: South Carolina (19) Big Ten: Michigan (20) Big Ten: Ohio State (21) Pac-12: Utah (22) Big Ten: Wisconsin (23) Big 12: Texas (24) SEC: Arkansas (25) SEC: Mississippi State (27) Pac-12: Arizona State (28) Big Ten: Illinois (30) ACC: North Carolina (31) ACC: Notre Dame (35) SEC: Missouri (36) Big Ten: Northwestern (37) Sun Belt: ULL (38) ACC: Louisville (39) ACC: Pittsburgh (40) Big 12: Oklahoma State (41) SEC: Ole Miss (43) Conference USA: FAU (45) CHAMPS (32) Pac-12 champ: Washington (1) SEC champ: Florida (4)NEW replaces Alabama ACC champ: FSU (6) Big 12 champ: Baylor (8) Big Ten champ: Minnesota (11) Colonial champ: James Madison (17) WCC champ: BYU (26) Sun Belt champ: Texas State (34) Mountain West champ: Fresno State (33) AAC champ: Tulsa (32) A-10 champ: Fordham (44) Conference USA champ: Marshall (29) Big West champ: Cal Poly (48) Southland champ: McNeese (61) Atlantic Sun champ: Lipscomb (42)NEW replaces Kennesaw State OVC champ: SIUE (49) MAC: Ohio (50) Northeast: St. Francis (53) WAC: Grand Canyon (57) MVC: Illinois State (51) Big Sky: Weber State (83) Southern: UNCG (94) Big South: Liberty (100) Summit: North Dakota State (146)NEW replacing Omaha Big East: DePaul (155)NEW replacing Villanova Patriot: Lehigh (147) Horizon: Illinois-Chicago (164)NEW replacing Valpo Ivy: Harvard (171)NEW replacing Princeton America East: Binghamton (166)NEW replacing Albany MEAC: FAMU (221) MAAC: Marist (222) SWAC: Alabama State (247)