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3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #1 

Here's mine

Washington (1), Fresno State (30), Northwestern (38), Weber State (85)

Alabama (2), Wisconsin (32), SIUE (48), Alabama State (229)

Arizona (3), Mississippi State (27), Fordham (35), Grand Canyon (60)

Texas A&M (4), Texas State (29), Arizona State (33), Marist (222)

Baylor (5), Utah (20), Ole Miss (45), Albany (205)

FSU (6), Georgia (17), McNeese State (42), FAMU (221)

Auburn (7), Pittsburgh (31), Kennesaw State (46), Princeton (173)

Oregon (8), Arkansas (25), Marshall (36), Omaha (131)

Florida (9), North Carolina (28), FAU (43), Lehigh (160)

UCLA (10), BYU (26), Cal Poly (37), Illinois State (62)

Minnesota (11), Cal (18), Missouri (44), Valparaiso (162)

James Madison (12), South Carolina (24), Louisville (40), Liberty (105)

LSU (13), Texas (21), Louisiana (41), Villanova (147)

Tennessee (14), Michigan (23), Lipscomb (47), UNCG (89)

Oklahoma (15), Illinois (22), Tulsa (34), St. Francis (56)

Ohio State (16), Kentucky (19), Notre Dame (39), Ohio (54)
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #2 
You think they would put the Cajuns in Baton Rouge?

Also, that would be a nasty UCLA regional

The combined 2-3 RPI in that spitballed Arizona regional is 62. But, I am guessing the Cats would take Fordham and Mississippi State over BYU and Cal Poly and their combined 63 any day of the week.
KYBandit

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Posted Reply with quote  #3 
Let's flip Georgia and North Carolina, number's work out better and it would be a better story line from Supers last year.
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #4 
Quote:
Originally Posted by KYBandit
Let's flip Georgia and North Carolina, number's work out better and it would be a better story line from Supers last year.
They don't put two teams from same conference in the same regional, if you are suggesting UNC at FSU and Georgia at Gainesville....
Kurosawa

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Posted Reply with quote  #5 
Washington, Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA are going to get dinged for taking losses in a strong conference. None will be seeded in the top four, and only a couple, at best, inside the top eight (and thus able to host a super-regional).
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #6 

Huh? Couldn't disagree any more.

No, Washington will have to lose at least 8 games the rest of the way to exit the Top 4. The conference and Bama series are RPI concrete

Intraconference losses have never hurt the SEC, and they won't kill Pac this year

1-2 Pac will be in the top 4
jayrot

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Posted Reply with quote  #7 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns

Huh? Couldn't disagree any more.

No, Washington will have to lose at least 8 games the rest of the way to exit the Top 4. The conference and Bama series are RPI concrete

Intraconference losses have never hurt the SEC, and they won't kill Pac this year

1-2 Pac will be in the top 4



Who are your proposed 1-2 that will be in the top 4.

I can't see UCLA being in the top 4.  (Swept by Utah and I'd bet a few more series losses coming.)

UW has the best shot, as long as they don't lose too many with Schreyer.  Oregon with their weaker out of conference needs to show pretty strong in conference to find themselves in that 1-4 slot.  AZ if they can show solidly in conference could easily get that 1-4 slot.

I can't imagine 2 PACs in the 1-4  slots though with FSU, UF and maybe another SEC looming.
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #8 
2 Pacs if Arizona or Oregon play lights-out.

Washington, barring what I would call an implosion, is a given

Washington and Oregon play tough schedules down the stretch, including against Alabama and FSU

Mucho RPI credit, with good performance
jayrot

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Posted Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
2 Pacs if Arizona or Oregon play lights-out.

Washington, barring what I would call an implosion, is a given

Washington and Oregon play tough schedules down the stretch, including against Alabama and FSU

Mucho RPI credit, with good performance


So you have 4 teams, two of them will probably be FSU and UF.  One will probably be UW sans an improbable sweep by Bama.  I think that third spot could be contested by Minnesota if they blaze through conference.
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #10 

Minnesota RPI gonna get hurt
They have FIFTEEN conference games remaining against teams with an average RPI of 118
The rest of their 7 conference games... the GOOD teams... average an RPI of 29.
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #11 
And, yes, that is what "1-2" would indicate. Washington, and maybe another.
jayrot

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Posted Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Minnesota RPI gonna get hurt


Yes RPI will get hurt, but this may be a case where the NCAA overlooks that RPI and bumps them up despite RPI.  It isn't always so RPI rigid, but again it'd have to be a clear case for the NCAA.
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #13 
Better go 22-0. Just brutal
jayrot

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Posted Reply with quote  #14 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
Better go 22-0. Just brutal


That's kind of what I was trying to infer.  They might could handle one conference loss, but doubt it.  Can Wisconsin derail Minnesota's top 4 hopes?
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #15 
THAT is why I had "1" as part of my range.... easily could plant Minnesota or a second SEC team in there

Minnesota, with a loss in those 22 games, MIGHT need to win the Big Ten tourney to have a good shot at top 4
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #16 
And, Pac, at WORST 'will have a couple in the Top 8'
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #17 
Minnesota battles a little of what FSU faces as well... but 2 against UF, 3 against Oregon and 2 against South Carolina should inoculate them, barring a downturn
1janiedough

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Posted Reply with quote  #18 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3leftturns
And, Pac, at WORST 'will have a couple in the Top 8'



I agree with this, and possibly 3 in the top 8 depending on how Oregon AZ AND Washington play...even though they are all strong right now, who the hell really knows what will happen with Pac series possibly going topsy turvy due to the second tier team series.
BlueSky

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Posted Reply with quote  #19 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1janiedough



I agree with this, and possibly 3 in the top 8 depending on how Oregon AZ AND Washington play...even though they are all strong right now, who the hell really knows what will happen with Pac series possibly going topsy turvy due to the second tier team series.


Utah might show up.
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1janiedough

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Posted Reply with quote  #20 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSky


Utah might show up.


Exactly!  It is and has been coach Amy Hogue's goal to get her girls to OKC since she states it was one of the greatest experiences ever to be in the WCWS and wants them to feel that vibe.[smile]
jayrot

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Posted Reply with quote  #21 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1janiedough


Exactly!  It is and has been coach Amy Hogue's goal to get her girls to OKC since she states it was one of the greatest experiences ever to be in the WCWS and wants them to feel that vibe.[smile]


So hope they get there.  But can't see them being in the top 8.  They'll have to do it through a super regional on the road.
jayrot

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Posted Reply with quote  #22 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1janiedough



I agree with this, and possibly 3 in the top 8 depending on how Oregon AZ AND Washington play...even though they are all strong right now, who the hell really knows what will happen with Pac series possibly going topsy turvy due to the second tier team series.


I cannot see the P12 not having 3 in the top 8.  I imagine it will look something like

3 SEC
3 P12
1 ACC
1 Big12/B1G (Minnesota better work to make sure OU doesn't take their spot)
1janiedough

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Posted Reply with quote  #23 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrot


I cannot see the P12 not having 3 in the top 8.  I imagine it will look something like

3 SEC
3 P12
1 ACC
1 Big12/B1G (Minnesota better work to make sure OU doesn't take their spot)



Yes jayrot, my scenario is the same.
3leftturns

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Posted Reply with quote  #24 
RPI purity used for regional hosts, for 32 at-large teams and conference champs in this exercise

Regional scenario (most recent RPI at left, most recent after the slash)

Washington (1/1), Fresno State (33/30), Northwestern (37/38), Weber State (83/85)

Alabama (7/2), Wisconsin (23/32), SIUE (49/48), Alabama State (247/229)

Arizona (2/3), Mississippi State (27/27), Fordham (44/35), Grand Canyon (57/60)

Texas A&M (9/4), Arizona State (28/33), Oklahoma State (41NEW), Marist (222/222)

Baylor (8/5), Texas State (34/29), Ole Miss (43/45), Binghamton (166NEW)

FSU (6/6), Georgia (18/17), McNeese State (61/42), FAMU (221/221)

Auburn (5/7), Utah (22/20), Pittsburgh (40/31), Harvard (171NEW)

Oregon (3/8), Arkansas (25/25), Marshall (29/36), North Dakota State (146NEW)

Florida (4/9), North Carolina (31/28), FAU (45/43), Lehigh (147/160)

UCLA (10/10), BYU (26/26), Cal Poly (48/37), Illinois State (51/62)

Minnesota (11/11), James Madison (17/12), Missouri (36/44), Illinois-Chicago (164NEW)

LSU (12/13), Texas (24/21), Louisiana (38/41), DePaul (155NEW)

Tennessee (13/14), Illinois (30/22), Lipscomb (42,47), UNCG (94/89)

Cal (14/18), Michigan (20/23), Louisville (39/40), Liberty (100/105)

Kentucky (15/19), Ohio State (21/16), Notre Dame (35/39), Ohio (50/54)

Oklahoma (16/15), South Carolina (19/24), Tulsa (32/34), St. Francis (53/56)


FROM 3/20 TO 3/27
IN THE BRACKET: Oklahoma State (at large replacing Lipscomb, which, in turn, replaced Kennesaw State as a conference champ), North Dakota State replacing Omaha, DePaul replacing Villanova, Illinois-Chicago replacing Valparaiso, Harvard replacing Princeton, Binghamton replacing Albany

Conference 'champs' placed based on highest RPI for this exercise

AT-LARGE (32)
Pac-12: Arizona (2)
Pac-12: Oregon (3)
SEC: Auburn (5)
SEC: Alabama (7)NEW replaces Florida
SEC: Texas A&M (9)
Pac-12: UCLA (10)
SEC: LSU (12)
SEC: Tennessee (13)
Pac-12: California (14)
SEC: Kentucky (15)
Big 12: Oklahoma (16)
SEC: Georgia (18)
SEC: South Carolina (19)
Big Ten: Michigan (20)
Big Ten: Ohio State (21)
Pac-12: Utah (22)
Big Ten: Wisconsin (23)
Big 12: Texas (24)
SEC: Arkansas (25)
SEC: Mississippi State (27)
Pac-12: Arizona State (28)
Big Ten: Illinois (30)
ACC: North Carolina (31)
ACC: Notre Dame (35)
SEC: Missouri (36)
Big Ten: Northwestern (37)
Sun Belt: ULL (38)
ACC: Louisville (39)
ACC: Pittsburgh (40)
Big 12: Oklahoma State (41)
SEC: Ole Miss (43)
Conference USA: FAU (45)


CHAMPS (32)
Pac-12 champ: Washington (1)
SEC champ: Florida (4)NEW replaces Alabama
ACC champ: FSU (6)
Big 12 champ: Baylor (8)
Big Ten champ: Minnesota (11)
Colonial champ: James Madison (17)
WCC champ: BYU (26)
Sun Belt champ: Texas State (34)
Mountain West champ: Fresno State (33)
AAC champ: Tulsa (32)
A-10 champ: Fordham (44)
Conference USA champ: Marshall (29)
Big West champ: Cal Poly (48)
Southland champ: McNeese (61)
Atlantic Sun champ: Lipscomb (42)NEW replaces Kennesaw State
OVC champ: SIUE (49)
MAC: Ohio (50)
Northeast: St. Francis (53)
WAC: Grand Canyon (57)
MVC: Illinois State (51)
Big Sky: Weber State (83)
Southern: UNCG (94)
Big South: Liberty (100)
Summit: North Dakota State (146)NEW replacing Omaha
Big East: DePaul (155)NEW replacing Villanova
Patriot: Lehigh (147)
Horizon: Illinois-Chicago (164)NEW replacing Valpo
Ivy: Harvard (171)NEW replacing Princeton
America East: Binghamton (166)NEW replacing Albany
MEAC: FAMU (221)
MAAC: Marist (222)
SWAC: Alabama State (247)
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